Found January 18, 2012 on Pirates Prospects:
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Yesterday was the deadline for teams and arbitration eligible players to exchange salary figures for arbitration. The Pittsburgh Pirates reached pre-arbitration deals with six of the eight eligible players, and exchanged figures with the remaining two players. Here is a look at how each player did through arbitration, looking at the MLBTR estimates and the actual money that the players received.

Joel Hanrahan

Original Estimate: $4 M

Amount Paid: $4.1 M

Hanrahan’s amount paid was close to his expected value. He’s following the same path that Heath Bell took through arbitration. Both received $1.4 M in year one. Bell received $4 M in year two, while Hanrahan is getting $100 K more. If the trend continues, Hanrahan will be in line for something in the $7.5 M range next year, which is what Bell received in year three.

Casey McGehee

Original Estimate: $3.1 M

Amount Paid: $2.35-2.725 M

The final contract isn’t determined yet, but McGehee will receive less than the $3.1 M estimate. He has two years of control after the 2012 season.

Jeff Karstens

Original Estimate: $2.8 M

Amount Paid: $3.1 M

Karstens received $300 K more than his estimate. If he repeats his 2011 numbers, that will be a steal. Looking at his advanced metrics, he’s due for a regression to the 4.00 ERA range. His salary is still acceptable if he’s in that range. He has one year of control remaining after 2012. One has to wonder if he’s a darkhorse candidate to be traded mid-season if he continues to put up good numbers.

Garrett Jones

Original Estimate: $2.4 M

Amount Paid: $2.25-2.5 M

Jones hasn’t settled on a contract, but the two sides are close, and his original $2.4 M estimate is in the mid-point. This is his Super Two value, leaving him with three more years of control after this contract. The arbitration process values homers, which means Jones will continue to get raises if he continues to go through arbitration. Unless he can show the value of a regular starter this year, this will probably be his only affordable arbitration year.

Charlie Morton

Original Estimate: $2.1 M

Amount Paid: $2.445 M

Morton received $345 K more than his estimate. He has two years of control remaining after the 2012 season, and could be in line for a big raise if he continues to improve on his new delivery and sinker in 2012.

Chris Resop

Original Estimate: $1.1 M

Amount Paid: $850 K

Resop ended up about $300 K short of his estimate. This is his first year of arbitration, and it could be the only year he’d make sense for the Pirates. His value will likely shoot up to the $2 M range with another good season, and with all of the bullpen depth the Pirates have, it wouldn’t make sense to pay that price for a non-closer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Jose Veras situation after the 2012 season with Resop.

Evan Meek

Original Estimate: $900 K

Amount Paid: $875 K

Meek was $25 K short of his estimate, although he received a $25 K bonus for 50 innings pitched. He’s in the same situation as Resop, in that this is his first arbitration year and there might not be a second, depending on the guys behind him. The difference is that Meek could be a better candidate to close in the future, making it more likely that he’d stick around.

Jason Grilli

Original Estimate: $800 K

Amount Paid: $1.1 M

Grilli received $300 K more than his estimate. This is his final year of arbitration. He’s the highest paid reliever in the bullpen, outside of Hanrahan, which makes you wonder if he’ll be the 8th inning guy. He had some impressive strikeout numbers in 2011, and wouldn’t be a bad sleeper option in the 7th/8th innings.


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