Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 1/18/13
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rockies / Royals / White Sox. Batters Because the author is consumed with sloth, he will not look at the 14 clubs previously considered in this series to verify it, but will instead state the following — namely, that there is a very good chance that Lucas Duda‘s projected defensive rating (-11 runs in left field) is the worst we’ve seen so far. It is also possible, if not likely, that Dan Murphy‘s own defensive projection (-7 runs at second base) is the second worst so far by that measure. Are there bright spots among the Mets’ starting field players? Okay. David Wright remains an All Star candidate, certainly. Ruben Tejada‘s performance as a 22-year-old last season has bred encouragement for his future, as well. Furthermore, giving at-bats to players like Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, and Anthony Recker — that is, young-ish sorts who’ve demonstrated promise, but have little major-league experience — could produce gains. Otherwise, though, there is little cause for optimism from this squad in its present incarnation. Pitchers In 2012, only two pitching staffs (San Diego’s and Minnesota’s) produced a collective WAR of 6.0 or less — which is to say, posting a figure of 6.0 or less is something like an outlier so far as pitching staffs, and the WAR they produce, is concerned. That a system like ZiPS — conservative by nature, owing to the presence of regression — would project, then, a collective WAR as low as ca. 6.0 WAR for a team’s pitching staff is discouraging. The Mets, of course, are not bound to the particular fate being presented here. It’s possible that Johan Santana will survive for more than 100 innings. It’s even more possible that Jenrry Mejia won’t be given the opportunity to make 13 or whatever entirely fruitless starts. It’s thirdly possible that the club will extract some sort of value from the bullpen. The likely outcome is poor, is the point. Bench/Prospects There is hope for the Metropolitans. As the attentive reader will note, three of the top seven WAR projections among Mets’ hitters belong to players (Travis D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares) who are likely to begin the season in the minors. Add in Wilfredo Tovar, and that ratio becomes four in 10. The pitching depth isn’t quite so, uh… deep, but ZiPS regards Zack Wheeler as nearly a league-average starter already. Finally — and with sympathies to his most vocal supporter — Josh Satin does not appear poised to take the world by storm in 2013. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS David Wright R 30 3B 610 81 146 32 2 19 85 18 9 Ruben Tejada R 23 SS 610 59 151 28 2 2 40 7 4 Travis D’Arnaud R 24 C 407 42 97 20 2 13 50 2 1 Ike Davis L 26 1B 481 58 104 23 1 21 70 1 2 John Buck R 32 C 411 34 83 16 1 13 50 0 0 Wilmer Flores R 21 3B 625 66 147 28 3 14 73 2 3 Juan Lagares R 24 CF 577 59 140 24 8 6 54 16 8 Collin Cowgill R 27 CF 514 53 115 22 4 8 54 16 5 Dan Murphy L 28 2B 469 49 123 28 2 6 57 6 3 Wilfredo Tovar R 21 SS 562 58 123 24 4 2 42 13 10 Brandon Hicks R 27 SS 452 50 82 20 2 14 46 8 3 Kelly Shoppach R 33 C 238 21 44 9 1 8 24 0 0 Zach Lutz R 27 3B 353 39 72 14 1 10 37 0 1 Josh Rodriguez R 28 SS 443 45 92 16 2 8 43 5 5 Anthony Recker R 29 C 361 38 74 16 1 10 37 3 2 Matt Den Dekker L 25 CF 624 70 131 25 9 13 63 17 8 Justin Turner R 28 2B 395 44 94 23 1 5 39 4 2 Brad Emaus R 27 2B 365 35 76 15 1 6 33 5 2 Juan Centeno L 23 C 310 28 72 10 2 1 21 2 1 Lucas Duda L 27 LF 563 59 123 26 2 18 74 1 0 Scott Hairston R 33 LF 322 39 75 17 2 12 44 5 2 Ronny Cedeno R 30 SS 373 36 82 17 2 5 37 4 3 Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 25 RF 431 57 92 22 3 10 39 8 5 Fred Lewis L 32 LF 417 50 90 20 5 6 37 12 6 Mike Baxter L 28 LF 360 43 79 17 4 6 34 7 4 Jordany Valdespin L 25 2B 474 51 111 19 3 11 47 20 15 Reese Havens L 26 2B 330 32 57 11 1 7 27 1 1 Brian Bixler R 30 SS 359 40 71 13 2 4 26 10 4 Oswaldo Navarro R 28 SS 318 32 63 11 1 3 25 2 2 Cesar Puello R 22 CF 429 42 88 18 4 7 38 17 7 Sean Kazmar R 28 SS 425 41 90 18 2 4 39 4 3 Andrew Brown R 28 LF 491 48 97 19 2 15 54 3 3 Val Pascucci R 34 RF 432 42 75 15 0 13 47 0 1 Jamie Hoffmann R 28 LF 511 49 106 20 3 9 53 9 4 Josh Satin R 28 1B 574 59 122 27 1 9 55 2 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA David Wright 610 11.3% 20.0% .175 .320 .274 .357 .449 .340 Ruben Tejada 610 6.7% 13.3% .068 .314 .272 .328 .341 .295 Travis D’Arnaud 407 5.4% 24.1% .167 .312 .257 .305 .424 .315 Ike Davis 481 11.0% 24.9% .208 .290 .245 .328 .453 .332 John Buck 411 9.2% 24.8% .156 .277 .227 .305 .383 .296 Wilmer Flores 625 5.0% 15.8% .131 .280 .253 .292 .384 .290 Juan Lagares 577 4.5% 20.5% .107 .318 .258 .294 .365 .287 Collin Cowgill 514 7.4% 20.2% .116 .299 .247 .307 .363 .295 Dan Murphy 469 6.0% 11.9% .115 .310 .282 .325 .397 .311 Wilfredo Tovar 562 6.4% 11.6% .075 .271 .242 .299 .316 .271 Brandon Hicks 452 8.4% 35.2% .162 .289 .201 .277 .364 .283 Kelly Shoppach 238 7.6% 33.2% .168 .295 .212 .301 .380 .297 Zach Lutz 353 9.9% 30.6% .147 .318 .231 .315 .378 .304 Josh Rodriguez 443 7.9% 25.3% .110 .297 .230 .293 .340 .276 Anthony Recker 361 8.3% 26.6% .147 .288 .227 .294 .374 .293 Matt Den Dekker 624 5.6% 32.2% .144 .325 .229 .279 .373 .281 Justin Turner 395 6.3% 12.7% .111 .291 .262 .321 .373 .304 Brad Emaus 365 9.3% 16.4% .108 .268 .235 .309 .343 .288 Juan Centeno 310 5.8% 16.8% .060 .305 .254 .298 .314 .268 Lucas Duda 563 10.1% 23.3% .170 .299 .248 .330 .418 .325 Scott Hairston 322 5.9% 19.9% .191 .281 .252 .301 .443 .320 Ronny Cedeno 373 6.2% 21.7% .105 .298 .240 .288 .345 .269 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 7.9% 30.4% .149 .327 .236 .301 .385 .297 Fred Lewis 417 9.6% 24.7% .129 .318 .242 .321 .371 .304 Mike Baxter 360 9.2% 21.1% .135 .305 .248 .328 .384 .310 Jordany Valdespin 474 4.0% 20.5% .131 .296 .250 .286 .381 .282 Reese Havens 330 10.9% 34.8% .118 .298 .197 .292 .315 .271 Brian Bixler 359 7.2% 28.4% .089 .305 .218 .284 .308 .263 Oswaldo Navarro 318 7.9% 21.7% .077 .278 .221 .288 .298 .261 Cesar Puello 429 2.8% 27.7% .118 .297 .222 .272 .340 .270 Sean Kazmar 425 5.2% 17.2% .087 .270 .229 .273 .316 .256 Andrew Brown 491 8.1% 30.3% .154 .291 .220 .288 .374 .286 Val Pascucci 432 12.0% 35.0% .143 .288 .199 .296 .342 .282 Jamie Hoffmann 511 7.6% 22.1% .115 .281 .230 .292 .345 .279 Josh Satin 574 9.9% 27.7% .110 .328 .240 .319 .350 .295 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp David Wright 610 6.0 122 -1 4.0 Bob Elliott Ruben Tejada 610 4.1 86 3 2.2 Bill Knickerbocker Travis D’Arnaud 407 4.7 99 -2 1.9 Joe Oliver Ike Davis 481 5.2 114 2 1.9 Paul Sorrento John Buck 411 4.1 89 -2 1.5 Jody Davis Wilmer Flores 625 4.0 85 -1 1.2 Blake Dewitt Juan Lagares 577 3.9 81 3 1.2 Alexis Rios Collin Cowgill 514 4.1 85 0 1.2 Lou Collier Dan Murphy 469 4.8 99 -7 1.1 Jeff Treadway Wilfredo Tovar 562 3.2 71 4 1.1 Aaron Capista Brandon Hicks 452 3.5 76 -1 0.9 Blake Whealy Kelly Shoppach 238 3.9 87 -1 0.8 Steve Yeager Zach Lutz 353 4.1 91 -2 0.8 Roy Smalley Josh Rodriguez 443 3.4 75 1 0.8 Nick Green Anthony Recker 361 3.8 84 -4 0.8 Bill Hayes Matt Den Dekker 624 3.7 79 0 0.8 Todd Dunwoody Justin Turner 395 4.4 92 -4 0.8 Todd Haney Brad Emaus 365 3.8 80 0 0.7 John Raifstanger Juan Centeno 310 3.4 70 1 0.7 Junior Ortiz Lucas Duda 563 5.0 106 -11 0.7 Jerry Willard Scott Hairston 322 4.9 103 -3 0.6 Chris Sabo Ronny Cedeno 373 3.5 74 -1 0.5 Nick Green Kirk Nieuwenhuis 431 4.0 88 1 0.4 Myron White Fred Lewis 417 4.2 91 -1 0.4 Michael Tucker Mike Baxter 360 4.5 96 -2 0.4 Stu Pederson Jordany Valdespin 474 3.7 83 -4 0.2 Fred Manrique Reese Havens 330 3.1 68 0 0.2 Jamie Taylor Brian Bixler 359 3.1 64 -2 0.2 Tommy Murphy Oswaldo Navarro 318 2.9 63 -1 0.1 Jason Camilli Cesar Puello 429 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Luis Saturria Sean Kazmar 425 3.0 63 -4 -0.2 Joe Millette Andrew Brown 491 3.7 82 -3 -0.2 Chris Wakeland Val Pascucci 432 3.4 76 -1 -0.3 Ty Van Burkleo Jamie Hoffmann 511 3.6 76 -2 -0.4 Chip Childress Josh Satin 574 3.8 85 -4 -0.4 Chris Shelton *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Matt Harvey R 24 30 30 163.3 159 70 16 148 74 69 Jon Niese L 26 29 29 177.3 150 49 19 177 82 77 Zack Wheeler R 23 25 25 141.7 136 69 11 127 64 60 Johan Santana L 34 16 16 94.3 77 29 11 92 45 42 Dillon Gee R 27 23 22 134.3 110 46 18 136 72 67 Cory Mazzoni R 23 25 25 137.3 87 45 15 147 74 69 Bobby Parnell R 28 70 0 69.7 66 25 5 66 29 27 Carlos Torres R 30 36 16 118.7 96 67 11 114 63 59 Chris Young R 34 13 13 70.3 47 25 9 72 37 35 Ramon Ramirez R 31 62 0 64.3 54 30 5 59 29 27 Rafael Montero R 22 19 17 97.0 68 28 13 104 54 50 Jeremy Hefner R 27 30 24 145.0 91 46 16 160 81 76 Frank Francisco R 33 51 0 47.7 53 19 5 43 21 20 Jon Rauch R 34 59 0 50.3 40 13 6 49 24 22 Tim Byrdak L 39 53 0 28.0 31 15 3 23 13 12 Collin McHugh R 26 28 23 132.7 102 59 15 142 77 72 Robert Carson L 24 59 0 67.7 50 30 6 68 34 32 Gonzalez Germen R 25 21 18 107.3 75 41 14 116 63 59 Scott Rice L 31 47 0 53.3 36 29 4 54 28 26 Jenrry Mejia R 23 24 13 75.0 41 37 7 82 45 42 Justin Hampson L 33 55 0 60.3 43 27 6 62 32 30 Aaron Laffey L 28 37 14 105.7 55 48 12 115 62 58 Greg Burke R 30 51 0 63.7 45 28 7 66 34 32 Josh Edgin L 26 52 0 50.7 48 28 7 49 28 26 Chris Schwinden R 26 27 24 129.3 87 48 17 146 78 73 Manny Acosta R 32 58 0 65.0 60 30 8 63 35 33 Jeurys Familia R 23 30 26 126.7 102 84 13 130 77 72 Darin Gorski L 25 25 21 118.0 92 52 20 129 76 71 Elvin Ramirez R 25 58 0 72.7 64 61 7 69 44 41 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Matt Harvey 163.3 708 22.5% 9.9% .292 3.80 3.89 101 103 Jon Niese 177.3 758 19.8% 6.5% .295 3.91 3.65 104 97 Zack Wheeler 141.7 621 21.9% 11.1% .291 3.81 3.83 101 102 Johan Santana 94.3 404 19.1% 7.2% .284 4.01 3.82 106 101 Dillon Gee 134.3 585 18.8% 7.9% .294 4.49 4.38 119 116 Cory Mazzoni 137.3 604 14.4% 7.4% .294 4.52 4.37 120 116 Bobby Parnell 69.7 300 22.1% 8.3% .299 3.49 3.24 93 86 Carlos Torres 118.7 537 17.9% 12.6% .289 4.47 4.53 119 120 Chris Young 70.3 309 15.1% 8.2% .282 4.48 4.42 119 118 Ramon Ramirez 64.3 282 19.3% 10.8% .280 3.78 3.73 100 99 Rafael Montero 97.0 423 16.1% 6.6% .295 4.64 4.48 123 119 Jeremy Hefner 145.0 641 14.2% 7.2% .299 4.72 4.34 125 115 Frank Francisco 47.7 206 25.6% 9.4% .299 3.78 3.34 100 89 Jon Rauch 50.3 213 18.7% 6.2% .280 3.93 3.77 105 100 Tim Byrdak 28.0 122 25.5% 12.3% .286 3.86 3.35 102 89 Collin McHugh 132.7 599 17.1% 9.9% .306 4.88 4.55 130 121 Robert Carson 67.7 301 16.6% 10.0% .295 4.26 4.19 113 111 Gonzalez Germen 107.3 479 15.6% 8.6% .297 4.95 4.73 131 126 Scott Rice 53.3 243 14.9% 12.0% .293 4.39 4.52 117 120 Jenrry Mejia 75.0 344 11.9% 10.7% .294 5.04 4.88 134 130 Justin Hampson 60.3 270 15.9% 10.2% .293 4.48 4.50 119 119 Aaron Laffey 105.7 480 11.5% 10.0% .288 4.94 4.96 131 132 Greg Burke 63.7 285 15.9% 9.9% .295 4.52 4.42 120 117 Josh Edgin 50.7 228 20.9% 12.0% .297 4.62 4.71 123 125 Chris Schwinden 129.3 582 14.9% 8.3% .304 5.08 4.68 135 124 Manny Acosta 65.0 288 20.7% 10.4% .295 4.57 4.35 121 116 Jeurys Familia 126.7 594 17.2% 14.1% .302 5.12 4.95 136 132 Darin Gorski 118.0 535 17.2% 9.8% .298 5.42 5.24 144 139 Elvin Ramirez 72.7 348 18.3% 17.6% .291 5.08 5.18 135 138 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Matt Harvey 163.3 8.79 3.87 0.89 99 2.2 Mike Bielecki Jon Niese 177.3 7.62 2.51 0.95 96 2.1 Frank Tanana Zack Wheeler 141.7 8.62 4.36 0.73 99 1.9 Jason Schmidt Johan Santana 94.3 7.38 2.76 1.02 94 1.0 Mike Flanagan Dillon Gee 134.3 7.36 3.09 1.20 84 0.7 Chris Young Cory Mazzoni 137.3 5.70 2.95 0.97 83 0.6 Josh Fogg Bobby Parnell 69.7 8.53 3.22 0.70 108 0.6 Bert Roberge Carlos Torres 118.7 7.31 5.12 0.85 84 0.4 Bill Zuber Chris Young 70.3 5.97 3.25 1.09 84 0.4 Bob Milacki Ramon Ramirez 64.3 7.62 4.26 0.73 100 0.3 Marc Wilkins Rafael Montero 97.0 6.32 2.58 1.21 81 0.3 Gil Heredia Jeremy Hefner 145.0 5.65 2.85 1.01 80 0.3 Michael Macdonald Frank Francisco 47.7 9.95 3.65 0.90 100 0.2 Jeff Parrett Jon Rauch 50.3 7.10 2.35 1.02 96 0.1 Elias Sosa Tim Byrdak 28.0 10.02 4.83 0.82 98 0.1 Jesse Orosco Collin McHugh 132.7 6.95 4.01 1.04 77 0.0 Don Robinson Robert Carson 67.7 6.65 4.02 0.76 88 -0.1 Jonathon Rouwenhorst Gonzalez Germen 107.3 6.27 3.47 1.18 76 -0.1 Eric Boudreaux Scott Rice 53.3 6.11 4.92 0.67 86 -0.2 Matt Whisenant Jenrry Mejia 75.0 4.90 4.43 0.89 75 -0.2 Don Carrithers Justin Hampson 60.3 6.39 4.10 0.90 84 -0.2 C.J. Nitkowski Aaron Laffey 105.7 4.72 4.07 1.00 76 -0.3 Rich Rundles Greg Burke 63.7 6.42 3.98 0.92 83 -0.3 Jake Robbins Josh Edgin 50.7 8.47 4.88 1.17 82 -0.3 Mike Johnston Chris Schwinden 129.3 6.02 3.36 1.17 74 -0.3 Andy Taulbee Manny Acosta 65.0 8.27 4.13 1.12 82 -0.3 Doug Bochtler Jeurys Familia 126.7 7.24 5.96 0.89 74 -0.4 Brian Wood Darin Gorski 118.0 7.00 3.98 1.56 70 -0.8 Danny Christensen Elvin Ramirez 72.7 7.89 7.58 0.85 74 -0.8 Ryan Henderson *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
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