Originally written on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/14/14
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox. Batters In a study from February of 2012, Matt Swartz found that designated hitters, left fielders, and first basemen — in that order — were, on average, (over)paid the most dollars per win on the open market. It’s fitting, perhaps, in light of these findings, that the Tampa Bay — an organization that has distinguished itself for its efficient spending — would be weakest at these positions. The players mostly likely to fill those roles for Tampa Bay are Luke Scott, Sam Fuld, Shelley Duncan, and James Loney. Combined, they’re unlikely to make much more than $5 million this season, depending on the precise terms of Scott’s recent deal. Regardless of the degree to which it informs our understanding of Evan Longoria‘s actual future, his top comparable, Jim Ray Hart, is of some interest — if for no other reason than the reader has likely (and the author has definitely) never heard of him. Hart, however, was among the league’s best players for a four-year stretch in the 1960s, as this totally embiggenable WAR grid reveals: Lest the reader find himself concerned about Hart’s whereabouts today, rest easy: per Wikipedia, he “retired in 2006 to a life of leisure and good health.” Pitchers The Rays finished second in the majors last season in what we’ve taken to calling Ball-in-Play Wins (BIP-Wins) — which is to say, wins gained by the suppression of park-adjusted opponent BABIP. So, while the pitching staff posted a 23.2 WAR collectively, they actually produced something closer to 30 wins based on runs allowed (i.e. RA9-Wins, a figure that also consider runs/wins from stranded runners). Ought one attribute the runs/wins saved to the pitchers themselves — like Jeremy Hellickson, for example, who posted a 1.0 WAR but 4.2 RA9-Wins in 2012 — or to the skills of the individual defenders or to the frequent shifts employed by the Tampa Bay defense as a whole? Whatever the answer to the question, it calls attention to the impediment that remain to our understanding of run prevention and who, precisely, is responsible for it. Bench/Prospects ZiPS, which is generally conservative, nevertheless appears optimistic about recent acquisition Wil Myers‘ power. The former Royals prospect, who hit 37 home runs in 2012 between Double- and Triple-A, is projected to hit more homers than any other Ray in 2013 (albeit at a lower rate than Longoria). Shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee, meanwhile, is regarded by ZiPS as something close to an average major-league player. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Evan Longoria R 27 3B 538 72 122 27 2 24 85 7 3 Ben Zobrist B 32 2B 635 84 140 35 5 18 77 16 6 Desmond Jennings R 26 CF 637 94 143 25 7 13 52 34 5 Yunel Escobar R 30 SS 590 61 135 20 1 9 47 4 2 Wil Myers R 22 RF 616 75 141 21 4 26 74 5 3 Matt Joyce L 28 RF 494 61 105 24 3 17 64 8 4 Sean Rodriguez R 28 2B 406 48 81 18 2 10 42 9 3 Hak-Ju Lee L 22 SS 602 72 133 15 7 4 34 28 13 Robinson Chirinos R 29 C 382 42 82 16 1 8 37 1 3 Rich Thompson L 34 CF 464 55 100 15 5 3 29 27 5 Ryan Roberts R 32 3B 486 53 98 19 1 10 46 12 7 Stephen Vogt L 28 C 445 42 101 21 3 7 44 2 1 James Loney L 29 1B 555 54 132 27 1 9 64 4 3 Reid Brignac L 27 SS 408 40 83 14 2 7 37 3 3 Brandon Guyer R 27 RF 372 50 86 18 3 8 36 12 3 Cole Figueroa L 26 3B 529 60 117 19 3 3 46 8 5 Sam Fuld L 31 LF 300 40 65 11 4 2 18 13 6 Jose Molina R 38 C 222 21 47 9 0 5 22 2 1 Luke Scott L 35 1B 362 41 78 18 1 15 50 2 0 Jose Lobaton B 28 C 277 21 54 12 0 4 27 0 0 Tim Beckham R 23 SS 477 57 103 17 2 7 40 9 2 Chris Gimenez R 30 C 303 32 65 11 0 6 29 0 2 Elliot Johnson B 29 SS 332 35 71 11 2 6 31 15 6 Brandon Allen L 27 RF 460 47 83 17 2 14 50 6 2 Shawn O’Malley B 25 2B 396 43 76 7 4 1 20 16 7 Mike Fontenot L 33 2B 244 22 54 9 1 3 18 2 2 Shelley Duncan R 33 LF 345 37 68 14 0 12 45 1 1 Mikie Mahtook R 23 RF 569 57 127 20 5 7 47 16 9 Brooks Conrad B 33 3B 164 17 29 7 0 5 21 2 0 Jason Bourgeois R 31 RF 356 40 81 9 2 2 23 19 8 Jesus Feliciano L 34 CF 470 41 108 14 1 1 29 6 4 Leslie Anderson L 31 LF 483 43 114 17 0 8 42 1 3 Nick Weglarz L 25 LF 388 41 63 15 0 10 35 2 2 Jeff Salazar L 32 RF 339 33 62 9 1 6 27 10 2 Hideki Matsui L 39 LF 291 28 61 12 0 6 30 0 0 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Evan Longoria 538 11.7% 19.7% .223 .289 .263 .355 .486 .353 Ben Zobrist 635 13.1% 17.3% .183 .292 .260 .358 .443 .345 Desmond Jennings 637 8.6% 19.0% .138 .299 .252 .326 .390 .319 Yunel Escobar 590 8.0% 11.7% .092 .278 .256 .321 .348 .294 Wil Myers 616 8.1% 27.9% .191 .316 .253 .317 .444 .327 Matt Joyce 494 11.9% 22.3% .191 .290 .246 .342 .437 .334 Sean Rodriguez 406 7.9% 24.4% .146 .284 .227 .305 .373 .296 Hak-Ju Lee 602 6.8% 21.9% .074 .309 .241 .298 .315 .272 Robinson Chirinos 382 7.9% 19.4% .122 .280 .238 .309 .360 .293 Rich Thompson 464 5.2% 17.7% .081 .286 .236 .291 .317 .273 Ryan Roberts 486 9.9% 20.4% .119 .272 .228 .306 .347 .286 Stephen Vogt 445 5.6% 17.3% .116 .282 .245 .288 .361 .280 James Loney 555 7.2% 12.4% .110 .283 .259 .312 .369 .289 Reid Brignac 408 6.6% 22.5% .104 .274 .222 .277 .326 .262 Brandon Guyer 372 5.1% 18.8% .141 .294 .253 .302 .394 .302 Cole Figueroa 529 8.1% 11.3% .072 .275 .247 .313 .319 .279 Sam Fuld 300 9.3% 12.7% .093 .274 .242 .314 .335 .288 Jose Molina 222 7.2% 23.0% .118 .286 .232 .291 .350 .282 Luke Scott 362 8.6% 22.4% .200 .272 .241 .309 .441 .320 Jose Lobaton 277 10.5% 24.9% .099 .291 .222 .305 .321 .278 Tim Beckham 477 5.9% 23.1% .095 .295 .235 .283 .330 .270 Chris Gimenez 303 8.3% 22.4% .106 .292 .237 .301 .343 .281 Elliot Johnson 332 6.6% 23.8% .111 .301 .237 .292 .348 .279 Brandon Allen 460 10.4% 31.3% .156 .276 .205 .293 .361 .287 Shawn O’Malley 396 7.3% 22.7% .051 .284 .215 .285 .266 .249 Mike Fontenot 244 7.4% 19.7% .091 .297 .244 .305 .335 .276 Shelley Duncan 345 9.9% 23.5% .164 .260 .223 .304 .387 .302 Mikie Mahtook 569 5.1% 22.7% .097 .304 .242 .290 .339 .276 Brooks Conrad 164 8.5% 32.3% .150 .270 .199 .272 .349 .270 Jason Bourgeois 356 5.3% 11.8% .057 .274 .244 .289 .301 .262 Jesus Feliciano 470 4.0% 10.6% .043 .272 .245 .281 .288 .250 Leslie Anderson 483 3.7% 14.1% .090 .277 .250 .286 .340 .270 Nick Weglarz 388 11.3% 35.8% .133 .279 .188 .289 .321 .273 Jeff Salazar 339 8.0% 23.3% .095 .252 .203 .271 .298 .257 Hideki Matsui 291 7.9% 17.5% .114 .261 .231 .289 .345 .275 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Evan Longoria 538 6.4 135 8 5.2 Jim Ray Hart Ben Zobrist 635 5.9 125 5 4.9 Ray Durham Desmond Jennings 637 5.1 102 2 3.4 Mike Devereaux Yunel Escobar 590 4.1 90 4 2.5 Craig Wilson Wil Myers 616 5.1 112 0 2.3 Danny Tartabull Matt Joyce 494 5.4 118 -1 2.2 Leon Durham Sean Rodriguez 406 4.1 91 5 1.8 Chase Lambin Hak-Ju Lee 602 3.4 74 5 1.7 Royce Clayton Robinson Chirinos 382 3.8 89 2 1.6 Chad Moeller Rich Thompson 464 3.7 72 4 1.3 Vince Coleman Ryan Roberts 486 3.7 85 1 1.2 Scott Brosius Stephen Vogt 445 3.7 82 -5 0.9 Andy Stewart James Loney 555 4.2 92 4 0.9 John Mabry Reid Brignac 408 3.1 70 3 0.9 Keith Johns Brandon Guyer 372 4.5 95 0 0.8 Alexis Rios Cole Figueroa 529 3.5 80 -1 0.8 Russ Adams Sam Fuld 300 3.8 84 6 0.8 Rich Thompson Jose Molina 222 3.6 80 1 0.8 Paul Richards Luke Scott 362 4.9 109 -4 0.8 Chris Richard Jose Lobaton 277 3.4 78 -1 0.7 Alan Ashby Tim Beckham 477 3.4 73 -4 0.7 Ross Jones Chris Gimenez 303 3.5 82 -2 0.7 Juan Espino Elliot Johnson 332 3.7 80 -4 0.5 Chris Woodward Brandon Allen 460 3.7 84 0 0.3 Kevin Burns Shawn O’Malley 396 2.7 57 4 0.3 Tommy Hinzo Mike Fontenot 244 3.6 81 -2 0.3 Marlon Anderson Shelley Duncan 345 4.1 94 -3 0.2 Carmelo Martinez Mikie Mahtook 569 3.5 77 1 -0.1 George Hinshaw Brooks Conrad 164 3.3 74 -3 -0.1 Dave McKay Jason Bourgeois 356 3.2 68 2 -0.1 Jim Buccheri Jesus Feliciano 470 2.8 62 0 -0.3 Joe Orsulak Leslie Anderson 483 3.4 76 0 -0.3 Terry Francona Nick Weglarz 388 3.0 73 -2 -0.4 John Jensen Jeff Salazar 339 2.9 61 0 -0.4 Kevin Koslofski Hideki Matsui 291 3.5 78 -6 -0.6 Brian Jordan *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER David Price L 27 31 31 207.7 201 63 18 176 75 70 Matt Moore L 24 31 30 170.7 173 71 18 148 73 68 Jeremy Hellickson R 26 29 28 166.7 120 59 20 155 75 70 Alex Cobb R 25 27 27 149.3 110 54 15 151 74 69 Jeff Niemann R 30 20 19 104.3 81 33 13 104 52 49 Jake McGee L 26 67 0 57.3 64 16 6 47 20 19 Fernando Rodney R 36 58 0 53.3 49 21 4 45 19 18 Joel Peralta R 37 62 0 58.3 61 16 7 48 22 21 Chris Archer R 24 28 27 135.3 107 80 14 131 75 70 Fauxto Carmona R 32 18 18 111.0 63 34 15 115 61 57 Kyle Farnsworth R 37 46 0 41.3 38 13 4 36 16 15 Jake Odorizzi R 23 26 26 136.3 97 62 19 137 78 73 Felipe Rivero L 21 23 18 92.7 54 36 11 100 52 49 Jamey Wright R 38 54 0 59.0 41 25 4 58 28 26 Juan Carlos Oviedo R 31 37 0 34.7 30 11 4 32 16 15 Brandon Gomes R 28 56 0 66.0 59 30 7 62 32 30 Josh Lueke R 28 49 0 68.7 50 26 7 70 35 33 Juan Sandoval R 32 61 0 63.3 44 31 6 63 33 31 J.D. Martin R 30 24 16 104.7 55 22 18 120 63 59 Will Inman R 26 45 0 52.0 48 37 6 47 29 27 Frank De Los Santos L 25 46 4 79.3 38 35 8 87 46 43 Alex Colome R 24 22 22 105.7 68 72 12 110 66 62 Cesar Ramos L 29 47 7 74.3 48 34 11 79 45 42 Alex Torres L 25 29 23 109.0 90 91 11 108 68 64 Dane de la Rosa R 30 55 0 65.0 54 45 7 63 39 36 Kirby Yates R 26 52 0 60.7 57 55 7 57 39 36 Adam Liberatore L 26 39 0 63.0 32 36 7 70 41 38 Marquis Fleming R 26 46 0 70.3 59 54 10 68 45 42 Enny Romero L 22 25 24 105.7 74 93 14 107 73 68 Mike Montgomery L 23 26 26 141.3 85 75 23 152 94 88 Matt Buschmann R 29 30 19 120.0 68 62 19 136 82 77 Lance Pendleton R 29 27 19 107.3 61 64 19 120 77 72 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- David Price 207.7 862 23.3% 7.3% .275 3.03 3.24 78 83 Matt Moore 170.7 731 23.7% 9.7% .281 3.59 3.76 92 97 Jeremy Hellickson 166.7 714 16.8% 8.3% .265 3.78 4.28 97 110 Alex Cobb 149.3 653 16.8% 8.3% .293 4.16 4.15 107 107 Jeff Niemann 104.3 450 18.0% 7.3% .285 4.23 4.17 109 107 Jake McGee 57.3 235 27.2% 6.8% .277 2.98 2.96 77 76 Fernando Rodney 53.3 226 21.7% 9.3% .275 3.04 3.53 78 91 Joel Peralta 58.3 239 25.5% 6.7% .266 3.24 3.28 83 85 Chris Archer 135.3 617 17.3% 13.0% .288 4.66 4.83 120 124 Fauxto Carmona 111.0 482 13.1% 7.1% .275 4.62 4.80 119 123 Kyle Farnsworth 41.3 173 22.0% 7.5% .276 3.27 3.53 84 91 Jake Odorizzi 136.3 608 16.0% 10.2% .280 4.82 5.02 124 129 Felipe Rivero 92.7 414 13.0% 8.7% .290 4.76 4.80 123 124 Jamey Wright 59.0 260 15.8% 9.6% .290 3.97 3.81 102 98 Juan Carlos Oviedo 34.7 147 20.4% 7.5% .274 3.89 3.73 100 96 Brandon Gomes 66.0 290 20.3% 10.3% .289 4.09 4.14 105 107 Josh Lueke 68.7 302 16.6% 8.6% .293 4.33 4.27 111 110 Juan Sandoval 63.3 284 15.5% 10.9% .287 4.41 4.36 113 112 J.D. Martin 104.7 456 12.1% 4.8% .287 5.07 5.05 130 130 Will Inman 52.0 240 20.0% 15.4% .281 4.67 5.00 120 129 Frank De Los Santos 79.3 360 10.6% 9.7% .288 4.88 4.85 126 125 Alex Colome 105.7 499 13.6% 14.4% .288 5.28 5.53 136 142 Cesar Ramos 74.3 336 14.3% 10.1% .286 5.09 5.18 131 133 Alex Torres 109.0 526 17.1% 17.3% .297 5.28 5.40 136 139 Dane de la Rosa 65.0 303 17.8% 14.9% .290 4.98 5.05 128 130 Kirby Yates 60.7 294 19.4% 18.7% .294 5.34 5.58 137 144 Adam Liberatore 63.0 295 10.8% 12.2% .293 5.43 5.43 140 140 Marquis Fleming 70.3 333 17.7% 16.2% .283 5.37 5.70 138 147 Enny Romero 105.7 517 14.3% 18.0% .283 5.79 6.28 149 162 Mike Montgomery 141.3 651 13.1% 11.5% .280 5.60 5.77 144 149 Matt Buschmann 120.0 558 12.2% 11.1% .292 5.78 5.72 149 147 Lance Pendleton 107.3 506 12.1% 12.7% .285 6.04 6.19 155 159 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp David Price 207.7 8.71 2.73 0.78 127 5.1 C.C. Sabathia Matt Moore 170.7 9.12 3.74 0.95 108 3.0 Tony Saunders Jeremy Hellickson 166.7 6.48 3.19 1.08 102 2.5 Al Nipper Alex Cobb 149.3 6.63 3.26 0.90 93 1.6 Aaron Harang Jeff Niemann 104.3 6.99 2.85 1.12 91 1.0 Adam Eaton Jake McGee 57.3 10.05 2.51 0.94 129 0.9 Dan Plesac Fernando Rodney 53.3 8.27 3.55 0.68 127 0.8 Ricky Bottalico Joel Peralta 58.3 9.42 2.47 1.08 119 0.8 Lee Smith Chris Archer 135.3 7.12 5.32 0.93 83 0.6 Larry Mitchell Fauxto Carmona 111.0 5.11 2.76 1.22 83 0.5 Walter Plinge Kyle Farnsworth 41.3 8.28 2.83 0.87 118 0.5 Todd Worrell Jake Odorizzi 136.3 6.40 4.09 1.25 80 0.3 Mike Morgan Felipe Rivero 92.7 5.24 3.50 1.07 81 0.3 Rich Rundles Jamey Wright 59.0 6.25 3.81 0.61 97 0.2 Dave Giusti Juan Carlos Oviedo 34.7 7.78 2.85 1.04 99 0.2 Bobby Howry Brandon Gomes 66.0 8.05 4.09 0.95 94 0.2 Johnny Ruffin Josh Lueke 68.7 6.55 3.41 0.92 89 0.0 Jordan DeJong Juan Sandoval 63.3 6.26 4.41 0.85 88 -0.1 Marc Wilkins J.D. Martin 104.7 4.73 1.89 1.55 76 -0.1 Larry Shikles Will Inman 52.0 8.31 6.40 1.04 83 -0.2 Josh Banks Frank De Los Santos 79.3 4.31 3.97 0.91 79 -0.3 Scott Rice Alex Colome 105.7 5.79 6.13 1.02 73 -0.3 Ben Hendrickson Cesar Ramos 74.3 5.81 4.12 1.33 76 -0.4 Sherman Corbett Alex Torres 109.0 7.43 7.51 0.91 73 -0.4 Chris Mobley Dane de la Rosa 65.0 7.48 6.23 0.97 77 -0.5 Ryan Henderson Kirby Yates 60.7 8.45 8.15 1.04 72 -0.8 Bill Bene Adam Liberatore 63.0 4.57 5.14 1.00 71 -0.9 Brian Adams Marquis Fleming 70.3 7.55 6.91 1.28 72 -0.9 Cliff Brantley Enny Romero 105.7 6.30 7.92 1.19 67 -1.0 Steve Whitaker Mike Montgomery 141.3 5.41 4.78 1.46 69 -1.0 Felix Oroz Matt Buschmann 120.0 5.10 4.65 1.43 67 -1.2 Mike Heathcott Lance Pendleton 107.3 5.12 5.37 1.59 64 -1.4 Michael Johnson *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Gronk reads erotica, sings Katy Perry at SB Media Day

Governor donates $10K to UNM hoops star’s cancer charity

U.S. Soccer: Hope Solo needs to do 'number of things' to return

K.J. Wright: Targeting injured players 'unacceptable'

Five reasons the Patriots will win the Super Bowl

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Five reasons the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl

Bill Simmons fires a shot at ESPN colleague Ray Lewis

Which teams are most squarely on the bubble?

Tiger Woods: 'There was blood everywhere' after tooth incident

Jerry Rice: Asterisk needed if Patriots win Super Bowl

Pete Carroll ok with Robert Kraft despite Patriots firing

One of Tom Brady's ‘treats’ is avocado ice cream

Does MLB need more offense in the modern game?

Re-ranking the Top 25: exposing the biggest flaws

Tiger on wearing mask: ‘Not a lot of brown dudes at ski races’

Putting the Cleveland Cavaliers’ pieces together

Brodeur to retire immediately and join Blues front office

Michael Bennett talks about sex superstition, calls reporter gay

As Patriots prepare, it's easy to forget about Hernandez

Marcus Mariota's younger brother will play at Oregon

Marshawn Lynch on Media Day: 'I'm here so I won't get fined'

Ranking all 48 Super Bowls

'Goodell Must Go' mobile banners heading to Phoenix

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Does MLB need more offense in the modern game?

Re-ranking the Top 25: exposing the biggest flaws

Putting the Cavs’ pieces together

Super Bowl XLIX: Key people to know

Ranking all 48 Super Bowls

Bill Simmons fires a shot at Ray Lewis

NFL pushing CFP to change schedule

Can Yanks not pay A-Rod his bonuses?

Petition started to remove Pats from SB

On John Wall's adidas J Wall 1 NYC All-Star Edition

NFL approved Pats' under-inflated balls?

Six best Super Bowl coaches of all-time

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.