Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 12/28/12
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals. Batters Despite various trials and assorted tribulations, Josh Hamilton still posted the second-best WAR (4.4) among Rangers batters in 2012 — and averaged about 4.5 wins per season during his five years in Texas. Replacing Hamilton in 2013, barring any substantial acquisitions, will be a combination of David Murphy (in left field) and a platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry (in center) — although, because Murphy and Gentry received considerable playing time in 2012 (521 and 269 plate appearances, respectively), Martin is the only real new variable in the Rangers outfield equation. By regressed batting, Martin was one of the best prospect-age batters (i.e. age 24 or younger) in the Pacific Coast League, exhibiting the capacity both to control the strike zone and hit for modest power. That’s certainly promising, but ZiPS indicates that Texas might still be at a deficit in the outfield owing to Hamilton’s departure. Pitchers After Detroit, the Texas pitching staff posted the highest WAR in the majors last season. ZiPS forecasts ace Yu Darvish actually to exceed his 5.1 WAR and 89 ERA- from 2012. Despite the departures both of Scott Feldman (to the Cubs) and Koji Uehara (to the Red Sox), Texas still has some depth. That some of the most interesting pieces (Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria) will begin the season on the disabled list, however, clearly isn’t entirely ideal. The acquisition of Soria in particular — who was signed to a two-year, $8 million contract in early December — has the potential to prove quite deft, should Soria approach his form from before Tommy John surgery. Bench/Prospects Shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar (a) turns 20 in February and (b) is already regarded by ZiPS as the team’s third-best field player. Unlike Leonys Martin (mentioned above), Profar really does seem like a player who could almost entirely mitigate the loss of Josh Hamilton — less by means of his power, of course, and more by his defensive skills and plate discipline. Finding a position for him is a question that exists for which the answer remains an unsolved mystery — almost like a television show hosted by Robert Stack about hitherto unsolved mysteries. Many of the things one might say about Profar can be said about Mike Olt, too — except that he’s from Curaçao, because he’s not. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Adrian Beltre R 34 3B 574 72 158 31 1 28 89 2 1 Ian Kinsler R 31 2B 644 90 151 32 4 20 70 20 7 Jurickson Profar B 20 SS 610 65 143 31 6 13 60 17 7 Elvis Andrus R 24 SS 702 81 170 28 6 3 54 29 11 Mike Olt R 24 3B 487 53 106 17 2 19 61 5 1 Craig Gentry R 29 CF 337 39 79 12 3 3 29 17 5 Nelson Cruz R 32 RF 556 65 134 34 1 24 82 10 4 A.J. Pierzynski L 36 C 474 47 123 22 2 14 59 1 1 David Murphy L 31 LF 478 49 118 22 2 13 54 11 5 Geovany Soto R 30 C 407 47 83 19 0 15 56 1 0 Leonys Martin L 25 CF 388 43 95 21 3 8 42 15 11 Mitch Moreland L 27 1B 503 54 120 25 1 17 64 3 2 Julio Borbon L 27 CF 525 58 131 17 6 6 46 20 6 Yangervis Solarte B 25 2B 497 51 128 25 1 7 43 3 2 Engel Beltre L 23 CF 614 61 146 18 10 7 45 27 10 Leury Garcia B 22 2B 512 50 124 17 7 2 34 28 11 Brandon Snyder R 26 3B 394 39 89 19 1 10 49 1 1 Eli Whiteside R 33 C 214 24 42 9 1 4 20 1 1 Brandon Allen L 27 RF 459 51 90 19 3 16 61 7 2 Konrad Schmidt R 28 C 423 34 92 21 1 7 42 2 2 Brandon Snyder R 26 3B 394 39 89 19 1 10 49 1 1 Dusty Brown R 31 C 237 21 46 14 0 5 23 1 1 Luis Martinez R 28 C 329 30 70 15 1 2 29 1 1 Robinzon Diaz R 29 C 234 23 61 11 1 4 24 0 1 Koyie Hill B 34 C 130 11 24 5 1 1 8 0 0 Aaron Cunningham R 27 CF 390 42 83 22 2 8 47 3 5 Matt Kata B 35 3B 436 37 97 18 2 6 41 2 1 Chih-Hsien Chiang L 25 RF 527 50 121 30 2 11 59 3 3 Val Majewski L 32 LF 248 21 51 10 1 3 24 3 1 Ryan Spilborghs R 33 LF 399 36 84 16 1 6 37 4 3 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Adrian Beltre 574 5.1% 12.7% .220 .296 .296 .334 .516 .357 Ian Kinsler 644 9.8% 12.1% .177 .277 .266 .346 .443 .344 Jurickson Profar 610 8.5% 16.6% .151 .299 .263 .331 .414 .322 Elvis Andrus 702 8.8% 13.0% .080 .319 .276 .346 .356 .308 Mike Olt 487 10.7% 29.8% .182 .325 .247 .331 .429 .328 Craig Gentry 337 5.6% 16.6% .089 .309 .260 .321 .349 .298 Nelson Cruz 556 7.4% 21.4% .212 .298 .264 .320 .476 .340 A.J. Pierzynski 474 3.8% 11.0% .153 .285 .277 .311 .430 .314 David Murphy 478 9.0% 15.5% .152 .303 .275 .341 .427 .330 Geovany Soto 407 9.8% 23.3% .178 .270 .231 .313 .409 .313 Leonys Martin 388 7.0% 17.5% .145 .313 .270 .326 .415 .313 Mitch Moreland 503 7.6% 19.1% .171 .297 .264 .321 .435 .318 Julio Borbon 525 4.8% 13.5% .097 .303 .269 .307 .366 .293 Yangervis Solarte 497 4.6% 9.5% .103 .292 .275 .311 .378 .299 Engel Beltre 614 3.7% 22.0% .103 .321 .255 .292 .358 .283 Leury Garcia 512 4.1% 23.0% .078 .340 .259 .296 .337 .276 Brandon Snyder 394 5.3% 25.1% .140 .305 .245 .290 .385 .291 Eli Whiteside 214 6.1% 25.2% .119 .275 .216 .274 .335 .262 Brandon Allen 459 10.2% 29.8% .180 .290 .223 .307 .403 .308 Konrad Schmidt 423 4.7% 22.9% .112 .292 .235 .280 .347 .271 Brandon Snyder 394 5.3% 25.1% .140 .305 .245 .290 .385 .291 Dusty Brown 237 9.3% 24.5% .137 .272 .217 .291 .354 .282 Luis Martinez 329 7.6% 22.2% .077 .301 .234 .298 .311 .271 Robinzon Diaz 234 2.1% 6.4% .111 .274 .270 .288 .381 .287 Koyie Hill 130 6.2% 26.9% .084 .274 .202 .250 .286 .224 Aaron Cunningham 390 7.4% 21.5% .142 .285 .235 .297 .377 .288 Matt Kata 436 3.7% 14.9% .098 .269 .240 .281 .338 .270 Chih-Hsien Chiang 527 4.0% 20.1% .135 .286 .243 .278 .378 .282 Val Majewski 248 6.5% 21.4% .091 .274 .222 .274 .313 .259 Ryan Spilborghs 399 7.5% 22.8% .100 .293 .234 .297 .334 .279 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Adrian Beltre 574 6.6 120 8 4.8 Hank Majeski Ian Kinsler 644 5.8 106 4 3.8 Mark Ellis Jurickson Profar 610 5.1 95 4 3.2 D’Angelo Jimenez Elvis Andrus 702 4.7 86 6 3.0 Steve Sax Mike Olt 487 5.2 98 4 2.4 Mark Reynolds Craig Gentry 337 4.3 77 15 2.0 Gene Clines Nelson Cruz 556 5.6 106 0 1.9 Jermaine Dye A.J. Pierzynski 474 5.0 93 -3 1.8 Brian Harper David Murphy 478 5.4 101 3 1.6 Orlando Merced Geovany Soto 407 4.5 88 -2 1.5 John Buck Leonys Martin 388 4.8 93 2 1.2 Rick Manning Mitch Moreland 503 5.1 97 0 0.9 Danny Lewis Julio Borbon 525 4.3 76 2 0.9 Mike Spidale Yangervis Solarte 497 4.4 81 0 0.8 Terry Tiffee Engel Beltre 614 3.9 70 4 0.7 Nathan Haynes Leury Garcia 512 3.8 66 4 0.6 Juan Bell Brandon Snyder 394 4.0 76 0 0.6 Eric Hardgrave Eli Whiteside 214 3.1 59 4 0.5 Chad Moeller Brandon Allen 459 4.4 85 0 0.4 Kevin Burns Konrad Schmidt 423 3.4 64 -1 0.3 Salomon Manriquez Brandon Snyder 394 4.0 76 -1 0.3 Eric Hardgrave Dusty Brown 237 3.5 69 -2 0.2 Henry Blanco Luis Martinez 329 3.2 61 -1 0.1 Dave Parrish Robinzon Diaz 234 4.0 74 -4 0.0 Jeff Smith Koyie Hill 130 2.4 41 -1 -0.2 Frank Charles Aaron Cunningham 390 3.7 76 -4 -0.3 Adam Pavkovich Matt Kata 436 3.4 62 -3 -0.5 Vinny Castilla Chih-Hsien Chiang 527 3.7 71 1 -0.6 Jim Auten Val Majewski 248 3.0 55 -2 -0.9 Marc Sagmoen Ryan Spilborghs 399 3.4 66 -5 -1.2 Chris Pritchett *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Yu Darvish R 26 29 29 193.0 226 86 15 158 78 73 Matt Harrison L 27 30 30 191.3 120 57 21 196 92 86 Alexi Ogando R 29 26 25 135.3 117 41 16 121 60 56 Neftali Feliz R 25 21 21 118.0 105 48 12 104 51 48 Derek Holland L 26 29 28 170.7 141 55 27 170 92 86 Colby Lewis R 33 15 15 94.0 82 22 14 91 45 42 Roy Oswalt R 35 22 18 111.3 85 28 14 119 59 55 Robbie Ross L 24 60 0 65.3 46 25 5 62 29 27 Joe Nathan R 38 52 0 49.3 53 13 7 45 21 20 Joakim Soria R 29 49 0 49.0 47 14 6 47 22 21 Cory Burns R 25 64 0 67.7 59 26 7 68 34 32 Josh Lindblom R 26 70 0 69.0 63 31 11 67 37 35 Yoshinori Tateyama R 37 43 0 49.7 44 15 7 49 26 24 Martin Perez L 22 30 26 137.7 72 64 17 166 90 84 Michael Kirkman L 26 40 11 94.7 81 58 12 99 59 55 Tanner Scheppers R 26 53 0 57.3 45 20 7 63 32 30 Justin Miller R 26 44 0 57.0 43 31 7 57 32 30 Joe Ortiz L 22 54 0 58.7 34 15 9 66 33 31 Cody Buckel R 21 25 20 108.7 83 56 18 118 72 67 Mark Lowe R 30 40 0 39.3 34 15 6 40 21 20 Evan Meek R 30 48 0 50.0 38 30 7 51 31 29 Matthew West R 24 21 0 23.0 14 13 3 26 15 14 Willie Eyre R 34 46 1 58.3 34 28 7 69 37 35 Justin Grimm R 24 27 24 126.0 71 51 20 154 88 82 Randy Wells R 30 23 19 110.3 63 45 19 133 77 72 Jeff Beliveau L 26 55 0 62.0 56 33 11 66 40 37 Wilmer Font R 23 58 0 53.3 58 39 10 50 34 32 Neal Cotts L 33 24 0 28.3 21 18 4 32 19 18 Aaron Heilman R 34 43 0 48.7 34 21 8 56 32 30 Sean Green R 34 26 0 32.3 21 21 4 38 22 21 Ross Wolf R 30 51 0 61.0 36 25 9 73 42 39 Coty Woods R 25 50 0 54.0 37 25 10 62 37 35 Roman Mendez R 22 25 17 90.7 61 47 16 109 66 62 Tommy Hottovy L 31 43 0 55.7 38 29 11 65 41 38 Neil Ramirez R 24 27 27 105.3 76 59 20 123 79 74 Collin Balester R 27 46 1 68.0 51 32 14 77 49 46 Zach Simons R 28 42 0 54.0 35 39 13 65 47 44 Greg Reynolds R 27 25 22 125.0 47 42 23 180 103 96 Zach Jackson L 30 27 18 117.0 44 62 21 165 100 93 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Yu Darvish 193.0 823 27.5% 10.4% .294 3.40 3.24 80 77 Matt Harrison 191.3 827 14.5% 6.9% .279 4.05 4.18 96 99 Alexi Ogando 135.3 568 20.6% 7.2% .269 3.72 3.88 88 92 Neftali Feliz 118.0 506 20.8% 9.5% .272 3.66 3.91 87 92 Derek Holland 170.7 737 19.1% 7.5% .281 4.54 4.54 107 107 Colby Lewis 94.0 395 20.8% 5.6% .282 4.02 4.12 95 97 Roy Oswalt 111.3 481 17.7% 5.8% .300 4.45 4.04 105 96 Robbie Ross 65.3 283 16.3% 8.8% .278 3.72 3.78 88 89 Joe Nathan 49.3 206 25.7% 6.3% .290 3.65 3.64 86 86 Joakim Soria 49.0 208 22.6% 6.7% .295 3.86 3.75 91 89 Cory Burns 67.7 297 19.9% 8.8% .303 4.26 3.94 101 93 Josh Lindblom 69.0 305 20.7% 10.2% .286 4.57 4.73 108 112 Yoshinori Tateyama 49.7 213 20.6% 7.0% .289 4.35 4.06 103 96 Martin Perez 137.7 643 11.2% 10.0% .310 5.49 5.22 130 124 Michael Kirkman 94.7 441 18.4% 13.1% .306 5.23 5.00 124 118 Tanner Scheppers 57.3 255 17.7% 7.8% .311 4.71 4.21 111 100 Justin Miller 57.0 259 16.6% 12.0% .287 4.74 4.92 112 116 Joe Ortiz 58.7 257 13.2% 5.8% .292 4.76 4.85 113 115 Cody Buckel 108.7 500 16.6% 11.2% .298 5.55 5.43 131 128 Mark Lowe 39.3 173 19.7% 8.7% .288 4.58 4.42 108 104 Evan Meek 50.0 231 16.5% 13.0% .288 5.22 5.26 123 124 Matthew West 23.0 108 13.0% 12.0% .299 5.48 5.40 130 128 Willie Eyre 58.3 272 12.5% 10.3% .310 5.40 4.98 128 118 Justin Grimm 126.0 583 12.2% 8.7% .309 5.86 5.44 139 129 Randy Wells 110.3 509 12.4% 8.8% .302 5.87 5.44 139 129 Jeff Beliveau 62.0 285 19.6% 11.6% .304 5.37 5.34 127 126 Wilmer Font 53.3 249 23.3% 15.7% .294 5.40 5.83 128 138 Neal Cotts 28.3 135 15.6% 13.3% .311 5.72 5.46 135 129 Aaron Heilman 48.7 223 15.2% 9.4% .306 5.55 5.25 131 124 Sean Green 32.3 156 13.5% 13.5% .315 5.85 5.26 138 124 Ross Wolf 61.0 281 12.8% 8.9% .309 5.75 5.21 136 123 Coty Woods 54.0 249 14.9% 10.0% .301 5.83 5.63 138 133 Roman Mendez 90.7 428 14.2% 11.0% .313 6.15 5.80 145 137 Tommy Hottovy 55.7 261 14.6% 11.1% .302 6.14 6.08 145 144 Neil Ramirez 105.3 498 15.3% 11.8% .307 6.32 6.00 149 142 Collin Balester 68.0 313 16.3% 10.2% .299 6.09 5.82 144 138 Zach Simons 54.0 266 13.2% 14.7% .297 7.33 7.26 173 172 Greg Reynolds 125.0 597 7.9% 7.0% .329 6.91 5.91 163 140 Zach Jackson 117.0 578 7.6% 10.7% .325 7.15 6.47 169 153 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Yu Darvish 193.0 10.54 4.01 0.70 130 5.7 Bob Turley Matt Harrison 191.3 5.65 2.68 0.99 110 4.1 Greg Hibbard Alexi Ogando 135.3 7.78 2.73 1.06 119 3.4 Ben McDonald Neftali Feliz 118.0 8.01 3.66 0.92 121 3.1 Tony Armas Derek Holland 170.7 7.43 2.90 1.42 98 2.7 Cliff Lee Colby Lewis 94.0 7.85 2.11 1.34 110 2.1 John Smoltz Roy Oswalt 111.3 6.87 2.26 1.13 100 1.8 Bartolo Colon Robbie Ross 65.3 6.34 3.45 0.69 119 1.2 Pat Clements Joe Nathan 49.3 9.68 2.37 1.28 121 0.9 Lee Smith Joakim Soria 49.0 8.63 2.57 1.10 115 0.8 Mike Schooler Cory Burns 67.7 7.84 3.46 0.93 104 0.8 Alejandro Pena Josh Lindblom 69.0 8.22 4.04 1.43 97 0.6 Bo Donaldson Yoshinori Tateyama 49.7 7.97 2.72 1.27 102 0.5 Jeff Montgomery Martin Perez 137.7 4.71 4.18 1.11 81 0.5 Greg Kubes Michael Kirkman 94.7 7.70 5.51 1.14 85 0.5 Bobby Sprowl Tanner Scheppers 57.3 7.07 3.14 1.10 94 0.4 Derek Hasselhoff Justin Miller 57.0 6.79 4.89 1.11 94 0.3 Joel Moore Joe Ortiz 58.7 5.21 2.30 1.38 93 0.3 Ryan Meaux Cody Buckel 108.7 6.87 4.64 1.49 80 0.3 Joaquin Benoit Mark Lowe 39.3 7.79 3.44 1.37 97 0.3 Matt Karchner Evan Meek 50.0 6.84 5.40 1.26 85 0.0 Mike Cook Matthew West 23.0 5.48 5.09 1.17 81 -0.1 Scott Munter Willie Eyre 58.3 5.25 4.32 1.08 82 -0.1 Jason Childers Justin Grimm 126.0 5.07 3.64 1.43 76 -0.1 Peter Bauer Randy Wells 110.3 5.14 3.67 1.55 75 -0.1 Dennis Tankersley Jeff Beliveau 62.0 8.13 4.79 1.60 83 -0.1 Jesus Pena Wilmer Font 53.3 9.79 6.59 1.69 82 -0.1 Dana Ridenour Neal Cotts 28.3 6.68 5.72 1.27 78 -0.2 Eddie Oropesa Aaron Heilman 48.7 6.28 3.88 1.48 80 -0.2 Jason Childers Sean Green 32.3 5.85 5.85 1.11 76 -0.2 Jerry Johnson Ross Wolf 61.0 5.31 3.69 1.33 77 -0.4 Bob Scanlan Coty Woods 54.0 6.17 4.17 1.67 76 -0.4 Billy Taylor Roman Mendez 90.7 6.05 4.66 1.59 72 -0.4 Jeremy King Tommy Hottovy 55.7 6.14 4.69 1.78 72 -0.6 Eddie Oropesa Neil Ramirez 105.3 6.50 5.04 1.71 70 -0.7 Darrel Akerfelds Collin Balester 68.0 6.75 4.24 1.85 73 -0.7 Bo Hall Zach Simons 54.0 5.83 6.50 2.17 60 -1.4 Mumba Rivera Greg Reynolds 125.0 3.38 3.02 1.66 64 -1.7 Bill King Zach Jackson 117.0 3.38 4.77 1.62 62 -2.0 Chris Peters *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
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