“Second base or center field?”
As has been well publicized, Dustin Ackley is making the difficult transition to second base. Drafted as an outfielder after playing his final year at North Carolina at first base while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ackley submits that second base is the only position on the diamond that he had never played at any level going back to Little League.
After a winter crash course, Ackley checked the keystone sack off his list at AA West Tenn at the start of last season, and reports indicate that he’s progressing surprisingly well. Still, he’s far from good out there and relying on his athleticism and smarts. Some think he’ll be fine, but there are many who think he’ll have to move off the position sooner than later.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. (Photo: John Lok / Seattle Times)
Ackley is expected to be a very good hitter. It’s not exactly easy to find a very good hitter that can play tolerable defense at second base. But, neither is it easy to find a good hitter to play decent defense in center field. Ackley, as you know, began his pro career in the 2009 Arizona Fall League as a center fielder. With great speed and instincts, Ackley looked like a potentially above average defensive center fielder even before gaining enough experience out there to tighten up his routes. His poor throwing arm was the only really black mark. He wouldn’t be Mike Cameron out there, but he had a chance to be pretty good nonetheless.
Last season in the big leagues the average center fielder’s batting line was slightly better than the average second baseman’s. But consider that those center fielder’s lines were helped out by a couple guys that will spend most of their time in a corner this season in Josh Hamilton and Torii Hunter, another who might (and should) in Vernon Wells, and another trio who appear to be heading that way sooner than later in Colby Rasmus, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez (who, MLB Network just informed me, gained 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason– that won’t help). The only center fielders to rank among the best hitters at the position while posting UZRs above zero last season were Andres Torres, Brett Gardner, Chris Young and — dropping to the middle of the pack — Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios and Drew Stubbs.
Torres is a question mark going forward given his out-of-nowhere emergence, Gardner played much more left field than center field last season and figures to do so again (by no fault of his, but …), while Young and Stubbs are a little iffy given their lofty strikeout totals and lack of track records. Point being, it’s not exactly easy to find a solid all-around center fielder these days.
Seattle thinks they have one. No, not in Ackley, but rather Franklin Gutierrez. Death to Flying Things certainly was in 2009, though he slipped this past season. Having just extended him last offseason it made sense to move Ackley somewhere where his bat could provide high value.
Guti won’t be around forever though. His contract runs through 2013 with an option for 2014, and some have predicted that Gutierrez won’t age particularly well. The most obvious reason why is his style of play– the diving catches and spills against outfield walls are bound to catch up to him eventually. Additionally, Guti’s phenomenal range comes from great instincts, acceleration and route running rather than raw speed. That acceleration — getting to his top speed within a couple steps — seems to me to be something that could fade a little quicker than pure speed, especially given his on and off knee trouble. The recurring stomach ailment that has been zapping his strength adds another wrinkle.
Ackley will be 25-26 years old toward the end of Guti’s contract. By then, we’ll have had plenty of time to see if the second base experiment worked, and if not he might still be young and athletic enough to head back and assume center field. Probably not — left field makes more sense as Ackley’s safety position — but maybe.
If Seattle were serious about having Ackley take over for Guti they would probably have him in left field while making spot starts in center. Some traditional baseball ideas get in the way of that, however: 1) You need power in LF and 2) left fielders are easier to find than second basemen.
I hope that Ackley can stick at second base. It’s just simpler that way. I think he’s capable, but I won’t be surprised to see him back in the outfield eventually. And if he does, it’s not the end of the world. If it’s center field it might actually be a good thing.
The important thing is that Seattle has a very good hitting prospect knocking on the door. He might just hit enough to justify playing anywhere.
40-man, Player by Player 2011 index
Original Story:
http://www.proballnw.com/03-2011/40-m...
