Wasn’t Bob Brenly A Catcher?

Ryan Theriot was knocked down by a high and inside pitch in last night’s Cubs/Pirates game. It was the typical up and in pitch. It wasn’t really that close to hitting Theriot, but when you see a pitch coming anywhere near your head you tend to get out of the way as best as possible. I don’t remember who was pitching for the Pirates. Ramon Vazquez? Anyway, the next pitch was low and outside, which prompted Brenly to say, “I’d guess 90% of the time the next pitch after an up and in pitch is low and away.” That’s not a direct quote, but Brenly did say he guessed 90% of pitches after up and in pitches would be low and away. This isn’t something I’ve heard for the first time and neither have you. In fact, I think it’s fairly common opinion because it has been stated many times by people who you think you can trust. I’ve always thought it was a bit silly. Why would a pitcher tip off his next pitch? If the pitcher’s goal is to go low and away, why tell the batter you are going to do so by throwing one up and in? If it happens 90% of the time, the batter will most definitely be leaning out over the plate? Why? Because he’s learned that after that pitch comes another one. This would be the same as a pitcher throwing a fastball after every curveball he threw. A good pitcher would never consider tipping a pitch like this and it’s shocking to me how many fans think they would. We always hear about how a pitcher’s success is largely dependent on his ability to fool hitters. This can only be accomplished if you are not tipping your next pitch. In other words, if you throw a slider, you should be no less likely to throw a slider on the next pitch than you were on that pitch. If you throw a 2-seamer low and away, you should be no less likely to throw that same exact pitch again than you were to throw it the first time. If you are less likely to throw pitches following another one or throw it a certain location, hitters pick up on this and you are no longer fooling the batter. The pitcher who threw the up and in fastball on the 0-2 count should be no less likely to thrown another up and in pitch in the 1-2 count that followed. This is how you mix your pitches. Mixing pitches is part of what makes pitcher’s successful and it’s what enables him to fool hitters. There should never be a situation in which the batter knows what is more likely to come based on what has already happened. That’s pretty much common sense as far as I’m concerned, but too many fans, analysts, announcers and other idiots continue to suggest that the up and in pitch is usually followed by a low and away pitch. Their reasoning is that the batter would be less likely to lean out over the plate. That’s solid reasoning, but the batter would only be less likely to lean out over the plate if the next pitch was not so frequently thrown low and away. In other words, if every pitch after an up and in pitch is low and away, the hitter is going to be leaning out over the plate. He should be because he knows that pitch is very likely to be thrown in that location. I asked Harry Pavlidis if he could run some of the numbers with his fancy pitch f/x database. After defining up and in as 5 feet high and more than 5 inches off the plate for the initial pitch, and the extreme low and away corner as the following pitch, HP could get started in proving whether or not Bob Brenly was right or whether he was making **** up. Wow, Bob was really close. What was his guess? 90%. Amazing. Using MB21’s criteria, the actual value is 15.57 % That’s it. 15.6% of the time. Not 90%. when the pitch location is within the “up and in” (321 occurrences, I’m re-running with looser criteria) the next pitch in the same at bat was “down and away” 50 times. What about if we lower change the definitions? 2496 “up and in” using 4 feet high, 276 down and away on the next pitch. 11% That’s actually interesting. You are more likely to see a down and away pitch after an up and in pitch if it is up enough. There’s something there, but not 90%. As if. This difference was likely a sampling error due to only 321 occurrences at 5 feet high. What about all pitches? If we know how many pitches are located there overall we can at least get an idea if they are more likely to throw it there. Surely they are, right? I mean, an MLB catcher wouldn’t insist they are unless they do. Right? 282,065 down and away 1,623,601 pitches thrown 17.3% of all pitches are down and away. LMAO Yeah, that’s right. More pitches are thrown low and away than are thrown there AFTER throwing an up and in pitch. How does Bob Brenly not know this? He was a catcher for a long time. He was a coach and manager for a long time. He’s been a color announcer for a long time. How does someone with this kind of inside knowledge not know what common sense tells us and what reality tells us? Bob Brenly is full of ****.