Last night’s loss to the Braves dropped the Mets’ record to 73-85. The team’s actual record matches exactly its Pythagorean Record. Earlier in the year the talk was how the Mets were exceeding their Pythagorean Record by an insane amount. Those of us who pointed this out were scoffed at and while I looked for reasons why Pythagoras might not apply to the Mets back in late May, run differential once again has done a good job of predicting the team’s fortune.
In case you’ve forgotten, here’s how Pythagoras has done the last five years with the Mets:
2011: 79-83 (actual: 77-85)
2010: 81-81 (actual: 79-83)
2009: 72-90 (actual: 70-92)
2008: 89-73 (actual: 89-73)
2007: 86-76 (actual: 88-74)
After May 14th, the Mets’ actual record was 20-15 while Pythagoras had them earning a 16-19 mark. At that pace, the Mets were on target for a 93-win season while their run differential predicted 74 wins. Clearly they are going to finish the 2012 season with a ledger much, much closer to what their mid-...