Originally written on The Nats Blog  |  Last updated 3/3/13
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection engine has predicted the Washington Nationals to repeat as National League East Division Champions. Here is their overall projection of the division: Overall, Baseball Prospectus projects that the Nationals will have the third best record in the National League in 2013 and the sixth best record in baseball. That projection would make them the worst division winner in the game, but they would still finish with a better record than any Wild Card winner.   It appears that BP’s computer seems to believe that Washington may have trouble scoring runs this season. They projected Washington to score 707 times in 2013, which would rank them 18th in the league. In 2012 they actually finished 10th. It looks like this is the biggest dig against them as it has them ranking pretty highly with 642 runs allowed.  Part of this projected offensive decline is likely a belief that Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond will return to their norm, as well as the loss of Mike Morse’s power. It probably doesn’t accurately account for Bryce Harper’s likely improvement, or a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth, however. It’s important to remember that Projections usually trend toward the conservative side, so young teams like Washington tend to get projected relatively lower than they actually finish.  To me what’s really interesting here is how closely they rank the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Personally I think the Phillies are due for a bit of a comeback this season, and I have no reason to believe the Braves will suddenly lose 12 games less than they did last year.  Personally, if I were to project this season by just eyeballing it, it would likely have the Nationals winning the division with 90+ wins, with the Braves and Phillies battling for the Wild Card with 85+ wins. 
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

One pitch away: Carrasco loses no-hitter in bottom of the 9th

England loses World Cup semifinal to Japan in heartbreaking fashion

Braxton Miller had 'successful' check-up visit

Raptors signing Carroll is shrewdest move of free agency

Report: Los Angeles Clippers will sign Paul Pierce

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

With Kevin Love retained, the Cavs can take care of LeBron

Aldridge crosses Lakers off list, did not mesh well with Kobe

Jerry Dipoto officially steps down as Angels GM

Report: Rajon Rondo wants 'all of' Kings' $10M cap space

Reports: Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson returning to Cavs

Dwyane Wade, Heat reportedly progressing in contract talks

David West explains why he opted out of Pacers contract

Warriors, Draymond Green agree to 5-year, $85 million deal

Twins call up top prospect Miguel Sano

Robert Griffin III speaks at UN to advocate for protecting oceans

Cavaliers re-sign Iman Shumpert to four-year contract

Mike Green is joining the Red Wings on a three-year deal

Grading the deal: Davis commits to Pelicans until 2020

ESPN denies censoring Keith Olbermann commentary

The best and worst MLB players in the month of June

Report: Lakers didn’t make strong impression on Aldridge

Danny Green takes the Andre Iguodala path

DeSean Jackson rips Eagles in new reality TV show

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

With Love retained, the Cavs can take care of LeBron

Grading the deal: Davis commits to Pelicans

Obama Administration: Change name if Redskins move to D.C.

Deciding what the All-Star Game means

Odell Beckham Jr. offered professional baseball contract

Orioles keep finding a way to win

Lloyd sends USWNT to World Cup final

Selecting the 2015 AL All-Stars

NBA Draft grades: Eastern Conference

Under the radar NBA free agents

Michael Sam, boyfriend broke up?

Mickelson linked to money laundering?

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.