He hasn’t stepped foot on a Major League mound since July 25, 2009. In the one and a half seasons prior to that last start, he made just 29 other starts. Erik Bedard was supposed to be the key ingredient to the 2008 Seattle Mariners, the number two starter behind Felix Hernandez. He was to be the second half of a dynamic duo to pitch the Mariners to the playoffs after their surprising 2007 season. He was the 2008 version of what Cliff Lee was meant to be in 2010. But like Lee, his presence didn’t matter as the Mariners lost 100 games in 2008. Bedard made just 15 starts that season. They were 15 very good starts—3.67 ERA, 81 innings, 70 hits, 8 K/9—but he was the symbol of all that ailed the Mariners in that season. They collectively failed under the newfound scrutiny and expectation. He returned in 2009 and like the 2009 Mariners, his results were very good. But, he made just 15 starts again, this time compiling a 2.82 ERA in 83 innings while allowing 65 hits and 9.8 K/9. He tried to come back last season, but his comeback attempt was aborted. Since his last start, Erik Bedard has undergone three shoulder surgeries, but the year off may have been exactly the medicine needed. It seems that the now 32 year old southpaw is finally healthy.
Five years ago, Erik Bedard was one of the premier left handed pitchers in the game. At 27 years old, Bedard won 15 games for the Baltimore Orioles along with a 3.76 ERA, 9 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.8 K/9. He made 33 starts in that 2006 season, still a career high. He followed that season with an even better 2008 season, save for 5 less starts due to injury. He won 13 games, compiled a 3.13 ERA, 7 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a Major League leading 10.9 K/9. At 28 years old, Bedard was in his prime and held in the same regard as fellow southpaw Johan Santana. While Santana was the name target and being dangled to every team, it was Bedard who was perceived as the better value. Ultimately, the Mariners paid more for Bedard than the Mets did for Santana. For Bedard’s 30 starts over the past three years, the Mariners traded Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio. Now, the Mariners are looking at Bedard with cautious optimism, hoping he can be a piece to their 2011 rebuilding puzzle after the disastrous 2010 season.
There is reason for that cautious optimism despite the perception that he is done as a quality Major League pitcher. For the first time in three years, Bedard enters Spring Training without restrictions. He is as healthy has he has been since the 2006 season. That, ultimately, is the big reason for optimism. For all of Bedard’s shortcomings, his performance on the mound has never been questioned. Essentially pitching hurt for two seasons in Seattle, Bedard’s scattered 30 starts were on-par with his 2005 and 2006 seasons. Despite the injuries, Bedard has always performed, making his comeback a realistic possibility for the Mariners.
Bedard was once thought to be one of the best southpaws in the game.
Even at 32 years old and with multiple surgeries, Bedard’s approach to pitching can allow him to find that once elite form. He’s a groundball pitcher, compiling a 1.19 GB/FB ratio and a 42.3 percent groundball rate. With a 36.7 flyball rate, he has allowed just .82 homeruns per nine innings. He has never been a hard thrower, averaging 91.5 MPH with his fastball during his last 15 starts (which was actually a little higher than the previous season). With a basic two pitch approach, Bedard utilized that fastball 62.3 percent of his pitches while throwing his curveball at a 34.1 percent rate. He is the classic lefty as he changes speeds frequently, throwing the 91 MPH fastball and then dropping a 77 MPH curveball. That approach has lead to a swing and miss rate on pitches thrown in the strike zone of 14.1 percent, slightly better than the 12 percent league average. Even if Bedard loses a tick or two on his fastball, the speed differential between his fastball and curveball is still large enough.
Perhaps even more indicative of a potential comeback was the interest in Bedard this offseason. Multiple teams inquired about his services. He had a couple of multiple year deals, but ultimately chose to return to Seattle in an effort to make good. It seems that Bedard is a man seeking redemption after spending the past three years pitching hurt and missing all of that time. The pride of an athlete is something that can never be ignored. While Bedard has never had a reputation of being a team-first type of player, it seems that the three years of struggle have changed him. He re-signed with the Mariners for less years and less money than he could’ve received elsewhere.
The spring has started well for Bedard. He has thrown all of his bullpens without incident. He started the spring opener, pitching one inning while striking out two batters. He threw just nine pitches. It’s a start, but obviously there are more hurdles to clear. The Mariners have stated that Bedard doesn’t have any restrictions, but they are still being careful in the early going. Having Bedard break camp healthy would be a victory for the Mariners. The team enters the 2011 season with zero expectations. They are in full rebuilding mode, much like they were heading into 2009. Like 2009, the Mariners won’t win because of their offense. Although they added the underrated Jack Cust and have a developing Justin Smoak and veterans Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins, the Mariners’ offense still projects to be the worst in the American League. If the Mariners are to surprise, once again it will be on their 2009 principles of elite defense and good pitching. The defense looks to be up to the task, but the staff is full of questions. Erik Bedard should be able to answer on of the biggest questions.
The Seattle Mariners are a team in transition. They went for it all last season with a flawed team, fooling most in the winter with their smart moves. Now, the reality of needing to really rebuild is in front of the fan base. Actually, it was the unexpected 2009 season that likely derailed the process. They had one of those magical, overachieving seasons which led to the unrealistic expectations of 2010. Now, they are once again the team that should finish in last. But, they have some interesting pieces to their team. They have the best pitcher in Baseball in Felix Hernandez. They have a guaranteed 200 hits in Ichiro Suzuki. Chone Figgins is quality hitter who can perform better. Franklin Gutierrez still has room to grow. Their top two prospects, second baseman Dustin Ackley and pitcher Michael Pineda, are nearly ready. The bullpen looks to be improved as well with the addition of Manny Delcarmen, Chris Ray, Aaron Laffey, and potential prospects Dan Cortes and Josh Lueke. There are certainly things to like about the Mariners heading into the season. There is so much to like that they can chase the .500 mark again. But, after Hernandez, the rotation is questionable. The healthy return of Erik Bedard makes a .500 a realistic season. The signs are pointing to Bedard making that return. If he does, Seattle baseball will be interesting in 2011. After last season, that’s the most anyone can expect. If he is healthy, Erik Bedard will be one of the most sought after free agent next winter. After the past three seasons, that’s also the most anyone can expect.
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Original Story:
http://fullcountpitch.com/2011/03/04/...
