Betting on Duchscherer

Justin Duchscherer decided to join the Orioles, and location was an important consideration: Duchscherer, 33, chose the Orioles over the Washington Nationals and the Seattle Mariners, partially because he wanted to be close to his son in southern New Jersey and also because the Orioles will allow him to compete for a spot in their rotation and won’t be using him as a reliever, a role he held for much of his eight seasons in the majors. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, when national television money still swamped local revenues, free agents often chose to play close to home, as the money wasn’t that different. Justin is an interesting pitcher, as he sports a low hit rate for someone with just a decent strikeout rate. You can see it in his FIP, which for his career stands at 3.86, while his actual ERA comes in at 3.13. I wonder how much of that comes from his relieving, where he can be put into situations that best suit him. I wonder if that difference will hold up a...