Editor's Note: In 2011 the key for the Mariners will be the performance of their young players. Over the next few weeks, we will preview the eleven players to keep your eye on in 2011. No. 11 and No. 10 Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, No. 9 Possible Breakout Players, No. 8 and No. 7 Dan Cortes and Josh Lueke, No. 6 2011 1st round draft pick, No. 5 Michael Saunders, No. 4 Nick Franklin, No. 3 Justin Smoak, No. 2 Michael Pineda
There is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect, just ask any Royals fan about Alex Gordon. But there is very little evidence to support a claim that Dustin Ackley won’t have huge success in Major League Baseball. His ability to hit for average and get on base should translate well to the major leagues. Ackley’s speed will be a weapon from day one (he is an outstanding base runner) the only real question mark that exists is, “How much power will he have?”
With outstanding contact hitters, scouts often project that if the swing is solid, the power will come with time and added muscle. That is exactly what many are saying about Ackley. As he adds muscle and develops we will see increases year to year in his power numbers. This does not mean he will someday be mashing homers like Jay Buhner, but hopefully he will be around 18-22 HRs per year in his prime. I do expect him to be a doubles machine, and with his speed and Safeco’s gaps we can expect a solid amount of triples as well.
The M’s wanted to test Ackley this year and they did exactly that, having him play out the full AA and AAA season and then sending him to the Arizona Fall League. One would think he would’ve tired after so much baseball, but Ackley went on to win the Arizona Fall League MVP award, and got stronger as the season went on. This is a great sign. This quote from a Jonathan Mayo MLB.com article describes his late surge well,
"Early in the season, I was still doing early work every day defensively," Ackley said. "I was doing early work, but I wasn't doing any hitting. I was struggling hitting and also struggling at second, so it was kind of tough to weigh both of those out. Everything was going wrong. After that, I started slowing everything down, took a deep breath and everything started to come more easily then."
Rather than go easy on their top prospect, the Mariners decided to test him and see how much he could handle. The front office deserves credit for this, because it looks to have worked out very well. I know what you are thinking, “Players change positions in the minor leagues all the time, so why is Ackley a special case?” Good question. Most position changes are between similar positions. Corner infielders or middle infielders will swap quite a bit, but the majority of the adjustment there is fielding the ball from a different area. Ackley is a former outfielder who is now playing 2B.
Something that will help Dustin is that he has made a position adjustment before, to first base following elbow surgery in his senior season at North Carolina. Having the experience of transitioning before is a plus, but with every level that you rise in baseball, the balls are hit harder and the players run faster. The margin of error continues to drop.
Just when Ackley is getting the hang of second base in AAA he will likely be coming up to the big show, and having to adjust again. Ackley needs to prove that he can stick at second, because if he can’t the team needs to alter their long term plans. Long term, an all-star at second base is much more valuable than an all-star outfielder, because an average outfielder is usually a better hitter than an average second baseman.
Expect to see Ackley in the Top 5 of most writers top prospect lists, and in a Mariners uniform as soon as his service time is under a full year. (No matter how good his spring is Ackley won’t break spring training with the M’s. Keeping him in AAA until May/June means Seattle keeps control over him for another full year. The “major league contract” he signed just means he is on the 40-man roster, it has nothing to do with his service time.)
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