Brief Thoughts on Young and 3,000 and the Hall

Joey Matschulat has a fine article about Michael Young's Hall of Fame chances, wherein he mentions something I wrote a year ago about Young's likelihood of achieving 3,000 hits. A "statistical sledgehammer," he called it. Flattering. To make a long story short, Bill James's "Favorite Toy" gave Young a modest 18% probability of reaching 3,000, and I suggested that even 18% was optimistic. Young now needs 1,152 hits to reach 3,000. He's entering his Age 34 season. Riffing off Matschulat, here's the list of players who achvieved that many hits from Age 34 through the end of their careers and how many seasons were needed: Seasons Hitters =11 Carlton Fisk Only 15 players, many of whom were among the best to ever swing a bat, populate the list. Tony Gwynn had "only" 1,102 hits after turning 34. George Brett had 1,059. Wade Boggs had 1,045. And so on. Whatever you think of Young, the players in the preceding ...