Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 4/20/15

Jun 2, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Casey McGehee (9) hits an two run RBI single during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
In the pantheon of strange MLB seasons, Casey McGehee’s name deserves some prime real estate. Somehow he’s driven in 53 runs this year — 13.7% of the Marlins’ total runs on the season — with just one, lone home run. Giancarlo Stanton has 62 RBI, just nine more than McGehee, but he’s hit 20 extra blasts. Sometimes baseball doesn’t make sense. numberFire featured a post on Wednesday providing some explanation for McGehee’s odd season: McGehee leads all of baseball with a .398 batting with RISP. The next closest hitter to him is Cleveland’s Lonnie Chisenhall, at .370. That’s a ridiculous number, far better than the MLB average with RISP of .249. And as most followers of baseball know, hitting with runners in scoring position is a difficult feat to repeat on a year-in, year-out basis. These are McGehee’s career numbers in that department. This is a fairly typical fluctuation in batting with RISP, something the struggling St. Louis Cardinals offense has discovered this year. Click here to read the rest of the article. They go on to explain that McGehee is due for regression. This is absolutely true, but it’s actually not something we’ve begun to see even as the Marlins offense continues to sputter. These are McGehee’s RBI totals by month: April: 16 May: 18 June: 14 July: 5 (8 days) In an attempt to project McGehee’s rest-of-season RBI totals, let’s look at what his RBI total should look like at the midway point had he not benefited from both Miami’s ridiculous start and his own great batting average with RISP. Over the last 30 days the Marlins have scored 103 runs, which ranks 23rd in the league. Already that seems like a fair estimate. Miami isn’t the worst offense in baseball, but they’re definitely not in the top half either. That works out to 3.81 runs per game. If you project that rate over the full season, you get an adjusted season total of 343 runs. As of July 9, Miami has actually scored 387 runs, so our estimated 343 is 88.6% of their actual total. McGehee is batting .398 with RISP, averaging 1.24 RBI per hit for a total of 46 RBI in these situations. Let’s say he’s more reasonably a .285 hitter (with a .302 average this season thanks to a .373 BABIP, that seems like a good estimate). If McGehee had batted .285 this season with RISP instead of .398, his RBI total with RISP would be 33, not 46. That 13-RBI adjustment would bring his season total down from 53 to 40. That’s 40 RBI per 90 team games. With 72 team games remaining, our math projects McGehee for 32 RBI the rest of the way, bringing his season total to 85. That’s still a great season on the whole, but his production down the stretch certainly will be underwhelming. McGehee must have more power than he’s displayed thus far (just 1 HR on the season), so his only real chance at coming close to his current RBI rate is to go on a mini power binge in the second half, but even then he’d need 7-9 HR the rest of the way just to keep pace with his current RBI rate. I doubt many people are buying McGehee at this point, but with 53 RBI on the year at a shallow third base position, maybe you can cash in before the correction.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Report: Josh Hamilton could rejoin Angels in June

Nate Solder reveals he was diagnosed with testicular cancer

RG3 on Patriots: 'They operate like a high school football team'

AUDIO: Reds skipper Bryan Price drops 77 f-bombs in rant

Monty Williams: Warriors home crowd noise 'out of hand'


LT thinks Philip Rivers won’t play for Chargers in 2015

Report: Kevin Ollie 'seriously considered' for Thunder job

Floyd Mayweather: I'm a better fighter than Muhammad Ali

Video emerges of Warren Sapp talking about prostitute arrest

Chip Kelly in 2011: Tim Tebow is not our team's QB type

NBA commissioner: Sports gambling is 'good for business'

Blazers post 'we don't lose to Spanish players' in locker room

The Lakers' free agency myth

The Milwaukee Brewers' untimely collapse

Cubs will reportedly call up prospect Addison Russell

Brewers' Scooter Gennett shares photo of nasty shower injury

WATCH: Fan at Pirates game hit by foul ball through netting

Hall of Famer Jim Palmer blasts David Ortiz over ejection

WATCH: President Obama leads 'O-H-I-O' chant

Fred Hoiberg shares video of him walking after heart surgery

DeAndre Jordan geeks out at Batman Exhibit

Philly welcomes Tim Tebow with 'tebowing' pretzel

Marshall Henderson trolls Erin Andrews over Stoll arrest

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Blazers post 'we don't lose to Spanish players' in locker room

The Lakers' free agency myth

Mayweather: I'm better than Ali

WATCH: Sapp talks prostitute arrest

Jim Palmer blasts David Ortiz

Wayne Taylor Racing No. 10 car wins at Long Beach

Pat Riley takes shot at LeBron?

Philly welcomes Tim Tebow with 'tebowing' pretzel

Stop the Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady debate

Alex Rodriguez: Heir to the Empire

The Tim Tebow lottery ticket

If Tony Parker's not right, it's going to go wrong for Spurs

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.