One of the Cleveland Indians’ most frustrating players over the last few years has been first baseman Matt LaPorta. The centerpiece of the deal that sent CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008, he was hailed as a 40-homer-a-year future stud who would anchor the Tribe’s lineup for years to come.
However, his production hasn’t matched his reputation. In exactly 162 career MLB games before the start of the 2011 season, LaPorta, 26, hit just .232 with a meager .694 OPS.
LaPorta was named the Indians’ starting first baseman this season—his last gasp before he is dismissed as a bust prospect. On the surface, it hasn’t gone very well: through 11 games, he’s hitting .189/.295/.378. Not exactly confidence-inspiring.
And yet, the small sample size isn’t the only reason to believe these numbers are fluky. LaPorta has been suffering from a tremendous amount of bad luck.
So far, LaPorta’s BABIP stands at just .185; only five balls he’s hit within the confines of the baseball diamond have fallen for hits. Even for a slow-footed flyball hitter, that smacks of a tremendous amount of bad luck.
LaPorta’s xBABIP is .242. That’s incredibly low and probably a product of small sample size (his career xBABIP is .305), but it’s still much higher than his actual hit rate. If we substitute his .242 xBABIP for his .185 BABIP and factor in his 1.000 Power Factor, his slashline jumps to .231/.337/.461. That’s still not what the Indians were expecting when they dealt their ace for him three years ago, but it ain’t bad.
If instead we use LaPorta’s .260 pre-2011 career BABIP, his numbers jump to .244/.350/.488. A first baseman with those numbers probably won’t make the All-Star team, but that’d still be good for an .838 OPS.
But bad luck on balls in play isn’t a new phenomenon for LaPorta—his .305 career xBABIP is nearly 50 points higher than his actual hit rate. If we plug in this figure for his hit rate, suddenly he’s hitting .277/.383/.553. That’s a .936 OPS, which would have ranked fifth in the league in 2010. I think these numbers speak for themselves.
That’s not to say we should actually expect that from LaPorta; it’s certainly plausible that he’s adding power at age 26, but even so his Power Factor is likely to regress towards his .690 career mark. What he gains in average will be offset somewhat by his likely loss in power.
Moreover, given the discrepancy between his actual and expected hit rates, it’s possible that he has some deficiency that weakens his contact in a way that xBABIP cannot measure. It’s more likely that the variation is simply due to luck, but that this is part of a trend for LaPorta should cause us to at least consider the possibility.
But the point stands: LaPorta isn’t nearly as bad as he’s looked so far this year, and his improved plate discipline and power suggest that he’s actually made strides in his game. That should translate to more on-field success soon.
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