Found March 05, 2012 on Detroit Sports 360:
Mlb_may_29_1685

New Tiger Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel takes the phrase “living out of a suitcase” literally.  Playing for 13 teams in his career, that suitcase has probably been replaced two or three times because of the wear and tear.  Dotel now finds himself in a Detroit Tigers uniform, looking to contribute to an already dominant back end of the bullpen.

REGRESSION: WHIP – With TOR and STL last year, Dotel had a combined WHIP of 0.98. Uh…that is a dominate number.  It is somewhat puzzling to see a WHIP that low with his ERA still at 3.50.  Not saying a 3.50 ERA is high, but it is for a WHIP under 1.  Having a career WHIP of 1.24, pitching in the AL, and just having a number tough to duplicate tells me to expect this number to increase by year’s end.

BAA – Another number that does not make any sense when comparing to Dotel’s ERA is his batting average against.  He held batters to a .185 average last season; .236 against lefties and a stupid .154 against righties.  Dotty has a career BAA of .216, a nice number by itself, but it is no .185.  I do believe Dotel has figured something out as he ages, but with the 7th inning all to himself (as of now) he should get some more lefties, raising his BAA.

ERA – Yes, Dotel had a 3.5 ERA last year. But with TOR, it was a 3.68.  When he moved to the National League, his ERA dipped to 3.28.  Having a career 3.74 ERA and pitching in the AL once again, the league that is obviously loaded with top tier offenses, will result in this number to be higher than last.

Walks – Prior to last year, in 834.1 IP in his career, Dotel walked 379 batters, which is a BB/9 rate of 4.08.  Last season in 65 innings, Dotel only walked 17, which equates to a BB/9 rate of 2.35.  So, was it a fluke, or did Dotel figure something out?  How about a mixture of both?  Taking that into consideration plus the possibility of throwing more innings, and we should look at a higher number here.

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PROGRESSION: Games Played – Or in a relievers case, appearances.  Dotel last year appeared in 67 games.  This year, Dotel comes into this season with a somewhat established role.  The 7th inning is his.  Because of this, and starters 3-5 not consistently pitching 7 full innings, Dotel  should see an increase in appearances.

Innings – See above, basically.  What I will be interested in is his innings per appearance. Yes he has an inning to himself, but he will not always start the 7th, and if he does not get off to the hottest start against lefties, he may not finish it either.  That being said, there is always a chance he may have to come in early to get tough righties out in the 6th before continuing in the 7th.  In the end though, I see the former (minus struggling against LH) happening more than the latter, thus averaging slightly under an inning per appearance.

BOLD STATEMENT – Dotel will finish the season in a Detroit Tiger uniform (considering he played for 5 teams in the last two season and 13 in his career, that is saying something). He is a valuable piece with an important role, and he should do well in it.

PREDICTION – 69 GP 64 IP 4-3 3 SV 3.64 ERA 22 BB 70 K 1.21 WHIP .200 BAA

Related Tigers Links  Tigers Home Page - Stats, Free Agent Rumors, Custom Tigers Profiles for Detroit fans  Tigers Roster - See Tigers Roster and Current Salary  Free Agent Tracker - To track all the free agents and who is left Tigers Article: Detroit Tigers Preview and Predictions: Delmon Young – By Eric Steplitus Tigers Article: Detroit Tigers rout Florida Southern – By John Czech Tigers Article: Detroit Tigers Preview and Predictions: Phil Coke – By Eric Steplitus Tigers Article: Detroit Tigers Preview and Predictions: Gerald Laird – By Eric Steplitus DS360 Tags: Detroit Tigers


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