Originally written on Monkey with a Halo  |  Last updated 11/16/14
Mlb_may_14_cd84

If you’re going to give up home runs, solo shots are the way to go.  Managers often laugh off solo home runs when the pitcher’s team has a comfortable lead, say five or six runs, and the focus is on throwing strikes and getting outs.  But when said team is scoreless in the game and struggling offensively the way the Angels have this year, it’s another story.  You’d think that Ervin Santana would be a bit careful considering the Angels hadn’t scored at all in the last two games he started.  Still, with nobody on base it’s only one run so when the first batter he faced on Tuesday homered it was no big deal.  But one times four is four so when Santana gave up four solo home runs he put the Angels down 4-0.  He ended up allowing five earned runs to bring his ERA through four games to 7.23.  His record is a dazzling 0-4.

The four home runs allowed brought his total for the year to 10 in 24 innings and assuming he matches the 225 innings he’s averaged the last two years Santana is on a pace to allow 94 home runs this year.  His total home runs allowed in March/April from 2005 – 2011, seven seasons, is 33 for an average of 4.7 per season in the first month.  With 10 so far this year and another start left in April, Santana looks headed for a very poor year.  On the other hand, he does tend to allow more home runs in the first half of the season, with 103 of 174 over his career.  In fact, for those of us that rely on basic stats, Santana appears to be a better pitcher in the second half. 


Wins/Loses

ERA

WHIP

1st half

42-44

4.56

1.340

2nd half

45-27

3.95

1.274

 

His performance so far this year is unsurprising to me in some ways but a bit of a shock in others.  Statistics show clearly that Santana’s performance is erratic, but for whatever reason even numbered years are generally very good.  He has played in four odd numbered years and three even numbered years in the majors.


Wins/Loses

ERA

WHIP

WAR

Odd Years

38-42

4.71

1.408

7.0

Even Years

49-25

3.90

1.223

11.7

In four odd years Santana’s cumulative Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is 60% of the total of three even years.  In even years he is a decent #2 starter and in odd years he’s a #5.  Quite a difference.  Add in that Santana's team option for 2013 is $13MM with a $1MM buyout plus Garrett Richard’s presence in the wings, and Santana is possibly looking at his last year with the Angels.  That’s if he remains on the team.  The way it looks right now, the Angels will be sellers at the deadline and even average pitching is always at a premium at the deadline, whether the year is even or odd.

[follow]

MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Devon Still accused of not paying child support

Giants reportedly in talks with Max Scherzer, Chase Headley

Report: Robert Griffin III benched by Redskins for McCoy

Dice-K Matsuzaka headed back to Japan

Lovie Smith: 2-9 Bucs are still in playoff contention

UCLA QB Brett Hundley likely to enter NFL draft

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Bills will return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for Sunday's game

Miller to Oregon transfer rumor originates on Reddit

Valencia FC ditches bat logo amidst DC Comics challenge

Paul Pierce: Celtics' Big Three was like 'Holy Trinity'

Cubs reportedly offer Jon Lester more than $135 million

Colin Kaepernick: Jim Harbaugh will be back in 2015

10 greatest Thanksgiving Day games in NFL history

Derrick Rose leaves game with hamstring tightness

WATCH: Ty Lawson drops Kirk Hinrich to the floor

Alabama DL trolls Auburn with Instagram photo

Rockies pitcher takes shot at former Astros pitcher

WATCH: Paul Pierce signs autograph during game

Jeremy Hill asks great question about alma mater LSU

NBA rookie rankings after 1st month of 2014-15 season

Statistic about Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler very revealing

Aaron Rodgers blasts those who accused him of trolling Vikings

The century's 10 most one-sided college football rivalries

WATCH: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of NBA's first month

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.

Rose leaves with injury again

WATCH: Pierce signs for fan during game

Report: McCoy to start over RG3

Braxton Miller headed to Oregon?

10 most one-sided college football rivalries

Pierce: C's Big Three like 'Holy Trinity'

Maclin unhappy with Cooper comments

Post-Week 13 CFB Playoff projection

What has Masai Ujiri built in Toronto?

How L.A. should replace Hanley

Lester, Red Sox still talking contract

Why each NFL team should be thankful

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.