Found January 04, 2013 on
I’ve been asked a few times over the last couple of days what it would cost for Giancarlo Stanton. Recently there have been a few rumors that the Marlins would listen on Stanton. These sound very similar to the Justin Upton rumors that always come up. A young superstar is mentioned in trade rumors and soon enough every team’s message board has trade ideas for how their team can acquire the young star. Most of those offers are way off. As an example, I was given a “Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, and Kyle McPherson” suggestion recently. That’s a top pitching prospect, a top hitting prospect, and a good pitching prospect. Unfortunately that wouldn’t come close.
I don’t normally do trade value posts for players who aren’t linked to the Pirates in a rumor. In this case I figured I would look at the trade value for Stanton, just to paint a picture of the insane cost of a trade.
To start things off, remember Andrew McCutchen before his extension? It was a little over a year ago that I did a trade value article on McCutchen, writing why a deal would be impossible. That was back in the time before his extension, when people were convinced that McCutchen would be traded in a year or two, all because the Pirates hadn’t extended him by November of the off-season prior to the off-season when he would be arbitration eligible for the first time. It seems kind of silly now. It kind of did back then too.
McCutchen and Stanton aren’t similar players, but their values were similar. McCutchen in 2011 had four years of control remaining, with three years of arbitration. He was coming off a year with a 5.8 WAR. Stanton has four years of control remaining, three arbitration years, and is coming off a year with a 5.6 WAR. Going to the trade values chart, the inputs are almost identical.
Using a 5.6 WAR for the next four years for Stanton, plus the same salary figures I used last year for McCutchen ($500 K, $5.7 M, $8.6 M, $11.4 M), the trade value for Stanton comes out to $86.6 M. McCutchen was $88.6 M last year.
So what would $86.6 M look like in the Pirates’ system? For that we turn to our prospect trade values.
We’ll start with Gerrit Cole. He will likely end up a top ten pitching prospect, with a value of $26.7 M. If you think you’re getting Stanton without giving up Cole, you’re dreaming.
Then there’s Jameson Taillon, who is probably an 11-25 pitcher. That’s a value of $18.89 M.
Next we’ll throw in Alen Hanson, who is a 26-50 hitter. That’s $18.12 M.
We could assume that Gregory Polanco is a 26-50 hitter, but I think he’ll end up closer to the 51-75 range. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here and give him that $18.12 M.
That’s arguably the top two pitching prospects in the system and the top two hitting prospects. The total? $82.99 M. The Pirates would still need about $4 M. Or, in other words, a Grade B hitting prospect or two Grade C pitching prospects.
But there’s a problem. We’re only using Stanton’s 2012 WAR. He’s only 23. He should improve. What if he pulls a McCutchen and has a 7 win season in two of those years? Now his value is $100.6 M. Now you’re talking about adding Luis Heredia, and still needing a Grade B hitting prospect. And that’s based on a value that seems totally possible for Stanton.
A Stanton trade would wipe out the farm system. He could command two of the top hitting prospects in the game. If a team ever did trade for him, they might be able to save a prospect or two from that list. But they’re still going to have to give up a lot in return. By “a lot”, I don’t mean “maybe they’ll want Jose Tabata”. I mean “take Polanco out and replace him with two or three prospects in the 8-15 range of the system”. Also consider that if the Marlins did trade Stanton, they’d be looking for minor league pieces. Trading a young star away for immediate help at the major league level doesn’t add up, and it’s why the Justin Upton rumors never made sense.
The similarities for the values of Stanton and McCutchen work well. If you’re thinking of a trade possibility for Stanton, just ask yourself if you would have taken that same return for McCutchen a year ago. Considering the price, I don’t think any team would/could trade for Stanton. The cost would pretty much wipe out another team’s farm system. That’s definitely not something the Pirates could afford, even if they’ve got the prospects to actually afford the deal.
Links and Notes
**The 2013 Prospect Guide is now available. Order your copy today!
**Winter Leagues Recap: Latimore Makes His Debut.
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
The Pirates brought back Miles Durham as a player/coach.
Baseball America released their latest minor league transactions yesterday. The update included the news that the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Miles Durham. Durham spent seven years in the Pirates’ system, before being released last year. He went to the Independent leagues and hit for a .249/.299/.404 line in 193 at-bats. I’ve...
In Venezuelan League playoffs last night, Darren Ford went 0-for-4, as his team dropped their opening playoff game 8-1. Ford was the only Pirates player in Venezuela to play yesterday.
In the Dominican, Felix Pie and Alex Valdez saw their playoff struggles continue as their team dropped to 0-5 in the round robin tournament. Valdez went 0-for-3, dropping his average to .105 in 19...
The Pittsburgh Pirates announced their 2013 minor league managers and coaches today. Here is the breakdown.
Indianapolis: Dean Treanor will return for his third season in Indianapolis.
Altoona: Carlos Garcia was promoted to Double-A after spending two seasons managing in Bradenton. He replaced P.J. Forbes, who left the organization earlier this off-season.
In Winter League action from the Dominican last night, Starling Marte returned to his Leones del Escogido team and went 1-for-3, with two walks and a solo homer. With his team holding on to a 3-2 edge, he led off the eighth inning with his home run. Marte hadn’t played since December 8th, finishing the DWL regular season with a .304 average and .845 OPS in 28 games. He batted third...
The Pittsburgh Pirates created a vacancy in West Virginia when they promoted 2012 manager Rick Sofield to the majors. Sofield will take over as the first base coach for the Pirates in 2013, while leaving West Virginia looking for a manager. Chuck McGill of the Charleston Daily Mail reports that the new manager in West Virginia will be Mike Ryan.
Ryan spent parts of five seasons in...
I'm sure in a lot of leagues where people know a thing or two about a thing or two Starling Marte will be one of the things they know a thing or two about. Since it's still relevant, let's see what I said last year about him, "The Pirates equipment manager, Buffalo Bill, has to start making a uniform made from Jose Tabata’s skin. Put the lotion in the basket...
Though he's been gone from the Dodgers for some months and has even been traded again - this time to the Pirates - Jerry Sands is still a guy I enjoy collecting. I like his skill set and feel the Dodgers never gave him enough of a chance. That adds up to a tertiary collection and I was recently able to add my first Jerry 1/1.This sweet 2010 Bowman Sterling RC Magenta Printing...
In Winter League action from today, Adelaide lost 4-3 in a game that came down to Quincy Latimore coming up empty in a big spot. Adelaide trailed 4-3 going into the bottom of the ninth. They staged a comeback, loading the bases with a one out single, followed by two walks with two outs, the first one coming from Stefan Welch. Latimore came up and worked the count to 2-0, then after...
Big news everyone – Justin Upton is still on the trade block. He has been for about three years now, and he will continue to be until he is mercifully traded to a team that wants him more than Arizona seems to. With yesterday’s reports about Upton’s availability, more than a few people on Twitter asked me about Upton’s home/road splits, and whether or not we should expect...
Justin Upton and B.J. Upton have not played together for quite some time. B.J. had played his entire MLB career with the Tampa Bay Rays prior to signing with the Atlanta Braves just a little over a month ago. Justin has played his entire career with the Arizona Diamondbacks, although that may also be about to change.
For years now, the Diamondbacks have pondered trading Justin. They...
PHOENIX -- Scratch San Diego off the list of possible landing spots for Justin Upton or Jason Kubel.
The Padres and D-backs front-office teams touched base about a possible trade involving Upton, according to a baseball source, but were unable to find a match because the player the D-backs are most interested in acquiring, third baseman Chase Headley, will not be traded.
Justin Upton for Chase Headley?
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have held on-and-off discussions about a trade involving those players since July, but the talks have failed to progress, according to major-league sources.
The Diamondbacks, however, continue to discuss Upton with other clubs, including the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners, sources say, while also...
After signing Cody Ross, it seems more a matter of when, not if, the Diamondbacks will trade Justin Upton or Jason Kubel.
So far, Upton is drawing far more interest as a trade target from MLB teams. The Mariners, Rangers and Braves are the latest teams inquiring about the star outfielder, according to FOX Sports.
The Diamondbacks have an influx of talent in the corner outfield...
You just never know what you might come across on the internet. Today a brief post on MLBTR really caught my attention. Citing “major league sources,” Zach Links writes that a potential deal involving Padres 3B Chase Headley going to the Diamondbacks in exchange for OF Justin Upton has been discussed on and off since last July.
That rumored deal probably made a lot more sense...
By Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi
Want to know why Justin Upton still might get traded? Consider:
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a surplus of outfielders after signing Cody Ross to a three-year, 26 million free-agent contract.
At least three teams the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves have expressed strong interest in Upton, according to major...