Found April 16, 2013 on
Down with Goldy:
When the Twins signed free agent starter Kevin Correia to a 2 year, $10 million contract this year there were two distinct reactions from fans - you either got "who?" or "oh please god no tell me you're kidding what why?" I was in the second group. Correia had been a distinctly pedestrian pitcher for the Pirates and Padres, rolling up a grand total of 0.3 wins above a replacement level player in the last three years. After kicking around three organizations going back to 2003 and only once having what might be called a "quality" year, the $10 million seemed to be a bit of a ridiculous outlay for another Nick Blackburn.
That's basically what Correia was, an NL version of Correia. He doesn't strike people out (less than 5 K/9 each of the last two years), doesn't walk anybody (less than 2.5 BB/9 last two years), throws his fastball right around 90mph, and relies on groundballs to get outs. Basically your best case scenario was probably 180 innings with an ERA around the mid 4s - certainly not worth $10 million. However Correia has pitched very well this year, going 7+ innings while giving up 3 or fewer runs in all three of his starts, giving him 3 quality starts and a very nice 2.95 ERA. So that begs the question, is this luck (same old guy just a hot streak) or is this a brand new Correia? By the way I honestly don't know, but I suspect it's luck. Let's find out.
First, let's check out the quickest way to see if he's getting lucky: BABIP (and I will include links to all the nerd stats, although you should at least be somewhat familiar with most of them by now it's the 21st century grandpa). This year Correia is at .292 vs. his career number of .294. This is good news for Correia. Perhaps he is a better pitcher this year. Next up, Fielding Independent Pitching (both versions). This is not as good news. Correia's ERA (2.95) is significantly better than his FIP (3.92) and xFIP (4.20), which are both more in line with his career numbers. This suggests that so far this year Correia is pitching very similarly to how he always has, but something is affecting how many runs have actually crossed the plate.
Looking a little deeper two things immediately stand out: his LOB% and his HR/FB. LOB% simply means how many runners reach base against him and then fail to score. Generally this number will be higher for strikeout pitchers which Correia most assuredly is not, yet so far this year 81.9% of his baserunners have failed to score, which rates as excellent and would have been the second best of any starter last season. Comparing that to his career mark of 71%, which is slightly below average, and clearly something is happening here.
Similarly, his HR/FB (simply what % of fly balls he allows end up as home runs) is a very solid 8.7% this year, which is above average. Once again, when we compare that to his career mark of 10.7% we see a pretty drastic difference. One point you'd like to make here if you were defending Correia would be that Target Field is a tough park to hit home runs at so it wouldn't be out of line to see a low number here and you're right - From 2010-2012 Target Field saw 86 home runs hit the same number of at-bats it would take an average park to see 100. However in that same time frame Correia pitched at two extreme pitchers parks - PNC in Pittsburgh (74 HR) and Petco in San Diego (78 HR) - so, much like the Karate Kid in My Cousin Vinny, your case doesn't hold water.
Basically Correia is getting zero swings and misses which is resulting in the fewest strikeouts in his career (a laughable 3.4 per 9 right now) and more base runners. So far he's done a great job "scattering" his hits and avoiding the long ball and that's accounting for the low ERA and quality outings thus far. It's up to you if you believe that is something he can sustain despite being so much better than his career numbers, particularly when there's nothing here to suggest he's pitching any better than usual and might even be pitching a little bit worse. Personally? I'm thinking we're going to see some hard regression to the mean, and it's going to be ugly.
Get used to this, bromigos
Adding this because I find it fascinating, but Starlin Castro has yet to walk this year in 54 at-bats (prior to tonight where he still didn't walk). Turns out he's tied with Torii Hunter with those 54 ABs for most at-bats this year without a walk. In fourth place with 42 ABs is your guy Carlos Gomez. The most interesting thing looking at this list of guys without a walk is that they all suck. Seriously other than Castro and Hunter it's a bunch of crap like Daniel Descalso, Chris Getz, and Brent Lillibridge. I don't know if you can see this without a subscription but just look at - seriously look, it's terrible. Know the worst part? Ron Gardenhire would KILL to have most of these guys on his team. Don't deny it.
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
MINNEAPOLIS All offseason, the main emphasis for the Minnesota Twins was to improve their starting rotation. To do so, the team signed two veteran free agents and traded for another pitcher in hopes of rebuilding what had been the American League's worst starting staff in 2012.
Though it's still early in the 2013 season, it appears those offseason changes have made a difference...
MINNEAPOLIS Lost in the shuffle of Joe Mauer's four-hit night on Tuesday was the performance of the guy hitting ahead of him in the Twins' lineup.
Second baseman Brian Dozier led off against the Angels, his first career start as Minnesota's leadoff man. His 2-for-4 night was enough to convince manager Ron Gardenhire to put Dozier back in the leadoff spot for the second...
MINNEAPOLIS Last season, at the ripe old age of 38, Twins infielder Jamey Carroll was an every-day player. He played in 138 games, just shy of his career high.
One year later, Carroll's role in Minnesota has changed drastically. Through the first two weeks of the 2013 season, the 39-year-old Carroll is no longer an every-day player. In fact, he's made just two starts this...
Monday the Minnesota Twins filled a roster void as OF Wilkin Ramirez is in New York as his wife is giving birth. They purchased the contract of outfielder Oswaldo Arcia from Triple-A Rochester. Arcia has a talented bat but won’t be up long enough to put it to much use.
The post Minnesota Twins Purchase Contract Of Oswaldo Arcia appeared first on Fantasy Sports Player Rankings...
The Minnesota Twins made some relatively under-the-radar moves yesterday. They placed left fielder Darin Mastroianni on the disabled list while recalling Oswaldo Arcia to fill out the 25-man roster. Mastroianni had been battling a sore left ankle and was scratched from last night's game before eventually being placed on the DL.
Darin Mastroianni is headed to the DL...
The Minnesota Twins have placed outfielder Darin Mastroianni on the 15-day disabled list with a stress reaction in his left ankle.
Mastroianni injured his ankle on Monday night against the Los Angeles Angels and was a late scratch on Tuesday when he couldn't run on it. He left Target Field in a walking boot and will be replaced on the roster by outfielder Oswaldo Arcia.
It's no secret that it's easier for a left-hander to pitch to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
The Minnesota Twins can hope that a big hit by Mauer off a southpaw in the series opener against the Los Angeles Angels will help turn things around.
The Twins will be up against a left-handed starter for the second time this season Tuesday night when they face Jason Vargas, who has...
The Minnesota Twins have recalled outfielder Oswaldo Arcia from Triple-A Rochester.
The move was made before Monday's game against the Los Angeles Angels. Arcia took the roster spot of outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, who was placed on paternity leave after Saturday's game. Players can stay on the list for one to three days.
Arcia was batting . 414 with three home runs and eight...
Joe Mauer had another four hits and three RBIs to lead the Minnesota Twins to an 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday.
Mauer sprayed four singles into the Target Field outfield, making him 8 for 10 in the series through two games and raising his average to .386. Brian Dozier added two hits and two RBIs in his first career game batting leadoff for the Twins.
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Joe Mauer had another four hits and three RBIs to lead the Minnesota Twins to an 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday.
Mauer sprayed four singles into the Target Field outfield, making him 8 for 10 in the series through two games and raising his average to .386. Brian Dozier added two hits and two RBIs in his first career game batting leadoff for...
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Joe Mauer had a home run among his four hits and drove in three runs for the Minnesota Twins in an 8-2 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on a cold, windy Monday night that helped send several fly balls to the deepest parts of Target Field.
Kevin Correia (1-1) earned his first American League win after finishing seven innings for the third time in as many starts...
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- The Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins have had their series finale at Target Field postponed by rain.
The decision was made about 15 minutes before the scheduled start of Wednesday night's game. The Twins won the first two games of the series to drop the Angels to 4-10, matching their worst start in franchise history.
The Twins said the makeup date...