I have made no secret of being skeptical about Jeff Francoeur’s ability to succeed, long-term. And while my skepticism about other Mets players has been sadly reinforced by the season’s first nine games (see Jacobs, Mike; Matthews Jr., Gary), Francoeur has been on a crusade to make my doubts seem as reasonable as those of The Flat Earth Society, or The Birther Movement.
To which I say: Bravo, Jeff!
See, there is this idea floating around the blogosphere that those who take a statistical approach not only believe Jeff Francoeur won’t succeed, but that we actually want him to fail.
This couldn’t be further from the truth.
I’ve had the privilege of interviewing Jeff Francoeur, and my impressions have only been reinforced by those who cover him every day: Jeff Francoeur is a great guy. He’s loved in the clubhouse, he’s fun to watch on the field- because he’s so clearly having a great time playing baseball.
The worry was not that a guy with all of these positive attributes would succeed. Rather, the worry is that those positive attributes would keep him around even if he reverted to the player he was for the final season-and-a-half he was in Atlanta- that is, a player who doesn’t belong on a major league roster.
And while it is only nine games, the approach Francoeur has taken at the plate is so encouraging precisely because he didn’t exhibit this kind of patience for any nine-game stretch in his entire career. He’s rarely seen a first-pitch fastball all year, as teams have gone off of previous scouting reports, no doubt. And Francoeur has been impressively laying off of these pitches, finding himself ahead in the count.
In fact, let’s take a look at a breakdown through his first 39 plate appearances.
In 17 of 39 plate appearances, he’s taken a first-pitch ball. In other words, 44 percent of the time, he’s starting off 1-0 in the count. That’s up significantly from the 36 percent he started off 1-0 in 2009 and throughout his career. He’s gone on to walk in five of those 17 at-bats.
In 9 of 39 plate appearances, he has put the first pitch in play. His average is .778 in those plate appearances, with two home runs. So while that isn’t likely to continue, it appears he isn’t merely swinging randomly- he seems to be identifying good first pitches.
This is more encouraging than if he were simply taking a bunch of pitches. It speaks to an ability to identify good and bad pitches.
Again, this is nine games. But you couldn’t ask for a more encouraging nine games from Francoeur. He isn’t just hitting. He’s exhibiting, at least so far, the missing skill that kept him from becoming a consistently effective major league hitter.
Original Story:
http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=23730
