Originally posted on Taking Bad Schotz  |  Last updated 10/17/12

In five of the last six years, the American League Cy Young award winner has had the lowest ERA. This year’s ERA leader is David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays. Therefore, Price should win the award. Right? Wrong.
In 2011, Justin Verlander was in a league of his own. Winning 24 games, leading the league in strikeouts, WHIP, BAA, ERA and various other categories, he was an obvious choice for the award.
This year, Jered Weaver leads in BAA and WHIP, Price has ERA, Verlander has strikeouts and Weaver and Price are tied for wins. Pretty scattered. But the stats that really matter are the ones nobody pays attention to.
BAA, quality starts, WHIP, ERA and OBP. These five categories determine what a pitcher has really done all season. You can’t use wins as a huge factor because some teams just don’t score. Check Felix Hernandez and his Cy Young award in 2010.
So to break down these stats, here are the three leading candidates numbers.
(Rankings in American League.)

The three are all pretty rock solid, no doubt. But the underlying factor with Weaver is that he spent some time on the DL. Weaver only finished the season with 30 starts and 188.2 innings compared to Price who finished with 31 starts and 211 innings and Verlander who finished with 33 starts and 238.1 innings. I think the 50 less innings along with the high ERA and low quality starts will take him out of the equation. If he had played the full season though, I would easily give him the Cy Young. But that’s not the case.
So now we are left with two. Price vs Verlander.
Comparing these two, the numbers are pretty even so far. But if you break down the stats even more, the winner clearly emerges. For the second straight year.
What Verlander excels in that takes him above Price is his ability to go deep in practically every game. Verlander finished the season with six complete games compared to Price who only had two. But Verlander’s six could have been a lot higher. In the 33 games he started, he went at least eight innings in 15 of them. And of the 33 starts, he went at least six innings in 31 of them. Talk about workhorse.
Another big statistic in determining a Cy Young is Wins Above Replacement, also known as WAR. This stat determines the player’s actual value to the team and their wins. Verlander’s 7.6 WAR compared to Price’s 6.4 could be what finishes off the voting. Verlander’s WAR ranks first in the MLB for pitchers and third in the MLB for all players. Price’s WAR isn’t terrible, as he is ranked second in the MLB for pitchers, but every decimal matters and 1.2 is a huge difference.
The numbers are close. Very close. There is no doubt that voting will be a lot tougher this year compared to last season, but I think when the numbers get broken down, it will be clear that Verlander is the winner. And I think the fact that his team made the playoffs will be a little boost as well.
-Stanley

GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Reggie Bush reportedly closing in on contract with Bills

Report: Eric Berry planning to no-show training camp

Eagles could have interest in Gordon if Browns trade him

Report: Fitzpatrick, Jets not likely to have deal before camp

Report: Anquan Boldin signs one-year deal with Detroit Lions

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Formula One CEO's mother-in-law kidnapped in Brazil

Gregory going to treatment after another drug violation

Mike McCarthy ends weight talk, declares Eddie Lacy ‘ready’

Report: Redskins have discussed possibly signing Hardy

Kimbo Slice’s son set to make MMA debut

Did Bell miss drug tests due to changed phone number?

A look at the trade market for center fielders

Tyler Johnson 'threw up a couple of times' over $50M deal

Should the Yankees hold a fire sale?

Five young soccer players to keep an eye on at Rio Olympics

Conor McGregor's coach predicts result of Nate Diaz rematch

Jordy Nelson starts camp on PUP list, no reason for panic?

Mark Dantonio denies MSU negatively recruits against PSU

Brett Favre selects wife Deanna as his Hall of Fame presenter

Durant shopped for OKC home week before joining Warriors?

Jarron, Jason Collins speak in support of LGBTQ rights at DNC

Von Miller has some wild thoughts about human evolution

The crowning achievement of Sasha Banks

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

QUIZ: Name every Olympic event in which the USA has never won a gold medal

Five U.S. Olympians favored to win multiple gold medals

WATCH: What teams should join the Big 12?

One Gotta Go: Do NBA players really love NBA2K?

One Gotta Go: NBA players hate Facebook too

One Gotta Go: NBA players settle the fast food beef

One Gotta Go: NBA players make tough choices on their favorite rappers

One Gotta Go: NBA Summer League is not about that Game of Thrones life

The top NHL free agents available as offseason winds down

WATCH: NBA jersey sponsors that need to happen

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker