In 2010, at the age of 35, Livan Hernandez had the third best ERA of his career, good for sixteenth in the NL. He was also the most valuable Nationals pitcher.
His success continued in 2011, albeit diminished. His ERA was 4.47. Compared to 2008 and 2009, when his ERA was 6.05 and 5.44 respectively, 4.47 seems quite excellent.
The sabermetric take
It didn’t take long for sabermetricians to call shenanigans. Livan’s xFIP was 5th worst in the NL in 2010 and 7th worst in 2011.
Sabermetricians took this to be evidence of Livan’s poor quality in spite of his ERA. There is a strong, though steadily weakening, consensus that pitchers can only control three things: their walks, strikeouts, and home runs. The number of hits a pitcher gives up is believed to be beyond his control.
FIP was created in accordance with this idea, as walks, strikeouts, home runs, and innings pitched are the only factors in its calculation. xFIP weakens the idea that a pitcher can control his home runs, replaci...
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