LOOGYs aren’t hard to find

The Cubs are likely to enter the 2009 season with only one lefty in their bullpen. Neal Cotts isn?t a particularly good pitcher and nor is he really a guy you?d want to have facing only lefties as his splits seem to be reversed. While getting read to post Neal Cotts projections for 2009 today one of the things worthy of discussing first is that LOOGYs aren?t particularly difficult to find. We know that this is contrary to some of the things we?ve said in the past (here and here and many comment threads in between). We?re also aware that we have overvalued LOOGYs as well, but let?s talk about some facts. Anyone who has read The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball will certainly recall the part dedicated to LOOGYs. If you haven?t read this book, do yourself a favor and go buy it or see if your library has a copy. It?s a fantastic book. First, let?s think about the way managers like to set their lineups because this has a direct impact on the usage of relievers. Many managers like to go for the left-right-left order to split the lefties up. This presumably means that the team will either have to leave their lefty in the game to face the next 2 hitters (if there are no outs), or make at least one more pitching change. Most people immediately think it?s best to leave the LOOGY in since he?ll be facing another lefty after this next at-bat. However, once that first lefty/lefty match-up is out of the way the remaining 2 hitters are one lefty and one righty. This means you can leave the lefty in or bring in a right at that point and each are going to face one lefty and one righty. Each pitcher will have the platoon advantage in their favor 50% of those 2 at-bats. The optimal way to use the relievers would be to use the LOOGY to face the lefty and then use either the LOOGY or bring in a righty to face the next 2 hitters. The only thing that is important here is which one is better: the LOOGY or the righty. Each are going to face one hitter from the left side and one hitter from the right side. Keeping things as simple as possible here, who do you want to face those 2 batters: a guy with an ERA of 3 or a guy with an ERA of 4? If the LOOGY has the ERA of 4 and you?ve decided to leave him in to face the next 2 batters just because the next batter is a lefty then you?ve made a mistake. You are better off having the better pitcher in the game at that time because there is no advantage for being a right handed pitcher or a left handed pitcher when you?ll face one lefty and one righty. That may not always be true. The lefty could be Barry Bonds and the righty could be Ryan Theriot. If that were to happen you?d want to stick with the LOOGY and you?d also want to have the opposing manager checked into a mental hospital for coming up with any lineup that sees Ryan Theriot bat directly in front of Barry Bonds. Most of the time there isn?t that large a difference in the talent of the hitters especially when it?s the middle of the order where managers often try to utilize this. Think about the Cubs this coming season: Ramirez, Bradley, Lee, or Lee, Bradley, Ramirez. All 3 are good hitters and while Bradley is undoubtedly the best of those 3, Lee and Ramirez are pretty good too. Or to stick with the theme of L-R-L, the Cubs will likely have Fontenot hitting 2nd with Lee and Bradley behind him. Once the LOOGY faces Fontenot, the opposing manager would be smart to use the better reliever to face the next 2 (the LOOGY or some righty). Bradley being a switch hitter won?t allow an opposing manager to use multiple LOOGYs in an effort to gain the advantage in all 3 plate appearances. There seems to be a misconception that if a team has 2 lefties and a righty coming up to bat (L-R-L) that you should use the LOOGY to face all 3 batters, but once the first batter is out of the way you no longer have 2 lefties and righty coming to the plate (in this specific 3-batter scenario anyway). It might be that the LOOGY is the better pitcher than a righty you may use, but often it is not. What does the use of a LOOGY cause? Sure, in that specific at-bat it gives the pitching team the platoon advantage, but that LOOGY replaces a righty and when the LOOGY is done facing a lefty or two, another righty comes into the game. In the later innings, the righty that you had on the mound to begin with is oftentimes better than the righty that you will replace the LOOGY with. To make the point clearer, do you want to replace Carlos Marmol with Neal Cotts so that you can then replace Neal Cotts with Michael Wuertz? Would you just be better off by letting Marmol face all 3 hitters at which point he could then stay in the game if needed? Basically, what you?re often doing is replacing a righty with another righty, but one of lesser talent. This platoon advantage we all know about and talk about even if we don?t call it that is rather large. The average pitcher who has the platoon advantage lowers the batters wOBA by an average of .044. The comments below are from The Book. The biggest drawback to using LOOGYs is that the right-hander that was pulled cannot return to the game, but rather must be replaced by another (presumably less-skilled) right-hander. So if you?re one-out specialist faces one lefty and lowers the opponent?s wOBA by the average (.044), it is quite likely that the subsequent right-handed hitters in the lineup will increase their wOBA by .01 or .02 because they are facing an inferior right-handed pitcher (and sometimes even the LOOGY himself). So the usefulness of this strategy depends on not only how good your LOOGY is in the first place (versus a LHB, as compared to the RHP he is replacing), but also on how good your next right-handed reliever is (and sometimes on how good the LOOGY is versus a RHB). That platoon advantage means that ?even a bad left-handed pitcher will usually be as good against lefties as a good right-handed pitcher.? Against left-handed batters, a lefty with an ERA of 4.80 is the same as a righty with an ERA of 3.50. This assumes the pitchers have average platoon splits, which is generally true, but not always. If a lefty has a larger platoon split than the average player, it means that he can be worse than the 4.80 ERA and be just as good as a righty with a 3.50 ERA (against left-handed batters). Ignore Neal Cotts? actual splits for a moment. His career ERA is 4.51. He?s better than the 4.80 ERA LOOGY mentioned above. Here are a few of the right-handed relievers that Neal Cotts would be just as good against a lefty as these pitchers would be against lefties (2008 stats): Kerry Wood, Manny Delcarmen, David Weathers, Francisco Cordero, Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, Ryan Franklin, Clay Condrey and Heath Bell. 5 of those pitchers saved 15 or more games last year meaning they?d likely have been considered among the best relievers on their teams. Obviously a 4.80 LOOGY can never be allowed to face righties, but the point is that you don?t have to be a good left-handed pitcher to get left-handed batters out. If we assumed Neal Cotts had normal splits, which he actually might now that I take a look at it (1.31 career WHIP against lefties and 1.54 against righties), he suddenly becomes a very good relief pitcher against lefties. There were 42 left-handed relievers in 2008 who threw 40 or more innings and 35 of them had an ERA below 4.80. ERA for replacement level relievers is 4.80. By definition, replacement level is that talent that is freely available on the waiver wire or in a team?s minor league system and earns league minimum. Obviously not every reliever is replacement level. Some are worse, but the fact is that a replacement level left-handed reliever is a good enough LOOGY to get by as long as you aren?t using him to face many, if any, right handed batters.