Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 4/3/13
I always have an easier time recommending someone under the radar than someone who is droppable. This is because no matter how shallow the league, the upside of someone not on your roster, even if unlikely, may actually turn out to become that player’s reality. However, suggesting someone who should be dropped must be in context of the league set-up and waiver wire. With that said, consider the following players to be ones I am surprised are as heavily owned as they are. If you need to drop someone to pick up that gem on the wire I have no issue with these players getting the short end of the stick.But first, let’s start with a veteran who is getting far too much love in fantasy this year–Michael Young.Young is owned in virtually every ESPN league and over 75% of Yahoo leagues…and here I ask WHY? As a 2B or SS I might be able to support those rates, but as a corner infielder how can this be?It can’t be for his power — he only hit 8 HR last year and 11 the year before that. In fact, more than 70 players eligible at 1B or 3B hit more home runs than him last year. That’s right, more than 70. I know he hit 20 HR a few years ago, but as a 37-year-old with a fast-shrinking ISO there isn’t much reason to be optimistic he can hit more than 10-12 HR this year.How about those runs and RBI? The 79 runs don’t sound so bad, but only 67 RBI!? Surely you can do better than that from your corner infield spot. In fact, his 146 combined R/RBI was outside the top 30 among corner infielders last year. I am pessimistic about him improving on these totals given he will be playing in a worse offense than he was a part of last year. The Phillies scored 124 runs fewer than the Rangers last year.Given his very limited upside, the only conceivable reason I can come up with for why his ownership is so high is because of his batting average. In this category he has been as consistent as they come, but you don’t get points for being consistent, it’s all about the numbers and last year’s .277 BA was well outside the top 30 among corner infielders. Not to mention, on a personal level it was his lowest mark in 10 years. He’s clearly regressing.Unless you play in a league that starts a 1B, 3B, and a CI spot, you should do yourself a favor and pick up someone with at least a bit more upside (e.g. 1B: Brandon Moss, Yonder Alonso, 3B: Trevor Plouffe, Lonnie Chisenhall).Note: Keep in mind differences between standard ESPN and Yahoo leagues make the ownership rates more challenging to interpret, but here are some additional players I am lower on than most.Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM (ESPN: 84%, Yahoo: 26%) – For many of the similar reasons I mentioned, except he actually does have an elite BA for the position. Even so, he just doesn’t offer much in ANY of the counting number categories. The Yahoo players have it right here.Jason Werth, OF, WAS (ESPN: 96%, Y: 66%) and Dayan Viciedo, OF, CHW (ESPN: 90% , Y: 44%) – What exactly have these guys done to prove ownership rates north of 90%. Werth hasn’t had a good year since 2010 as isn’t getting any younger. Viciedo’s 2012 was very up and down, and he simply can’t be trusted until he proves he can hit against righties.Tommy Milone, SP, OAK (ESPN: 95%, Y: 41%) – I do not understand the love for Milone at all. This is a guy who put up a pedestrian 3.74 ERA, mediocre 1.27 WHIP, and a lackluster 6.5 K/9. Spot starting him when he’s at home–where his ERA last year was two runs lower than on the road (2.74 vs. 4.83)–I can be convinced, but overall I think you can do better.
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