An analogy that I’ve never been fond of is the one that relates ideas to parts of a tree. To hold an opinion that goes against either the standards of logic or a widely-held view is considered going “out on a limb.” The correlation is obviously that the “limb” is akin to a branch of a tree; the further one extends away from the trunk, the more likely he or she is to break the limb and come crashing down.
But nonetheless, I’m going to go out on a limb.
Chone Figgins, Mariners infielder. You may remember him. His distinctive features include a 4-year, 36-million-dollar contract, poor defense at second base in 2010, and an isolated slugging percentage a shade below .050. Perhaps I haven’t introduced him with much confidence, but why should I? After all, the man accounted for nearly ten percent of his team’s total payroll, despite performing only slightly better than a replacement-level player. He was, by no stretch of the imagination whatsoever, bad. In fact, your imagination could be perfectly inelastic and you would still be able to say without self-doubt that Figgins was both a poor hitter and fielder last season.
I think Chone Figgins should remain a Mariner in the near future.
3.2, 2.7, and 6.1. These are Figgins’ WAR totals in 2007, 2008, and 2009. A drop-off from 6.1 to 0.6 can be explained by 1) a batting average on balls in play almost 25 points below his career average, 2) a strange switch to a new position, and 3) the mental strain of playing for one of the worst offensive ballclubs in the history of professional baseball. A return to his career slash line in 2011 wouldn’t surprise me, nor should it surprise you.
Matt Mangini, Brendan Ryan, Alex Liddi, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Adam Kennedy. These are the in-house options to play third base should Figgins be traded or otherwise wiped from the Mariners roster. Ryan will likely be playing shortstop. Kennedy will likely get time at second base while Dustin Ackley’s MLB service time is being manipulated. Liddi and Mangini are reputably poor defenders. And Tui is pretty much a terrible baseball player all around. None of these options seem particularly appealing.
Regression. This is the mathematical concept whereby a baseball player who has been performing either significantly above or below his career norms will eventually begin to produce at that level again. Chone Figgins is almost definitely not in free-fall decline mode. Not yet. He had a bad season made worse by bad luck and a horrible team, and 2011 is a new year. Don’t be surprised if Figgins actually performs slightly better than his career averages.
All in all, the Mariners may have overpaid an aging utility player. But he is more likely to provide his employers with a (reasonable amount of) bang for their (fairly costly) buck.
This limb that I’ve climbed out to seems more stable than I thought.
Original Story:
http://www.proballnw.com/03-2011/ms-b...
