NL CENTRAL PREVIEW: Astros Hoping to Rise in 2011

Greg Lucas FOXSportsHouston.com Houston Astro fans are well aware 2010 was not a good season. It was not expected to be, but when the club lost it's first eight games the die was cast. Veterans like Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Kazuo Matsui and Pedro Feliz got off to horrid starts. Pitcher Wandy Rodriguez was not pitching well. Game after game something went wrong or a big hit was not made that spelled doom. While the Astros righted the ship considerably in the second half of the season thanks in part to some new faces--and frankly, in part thanks to the law of averages--they were still not a contender. Rising to a high of 72-75 and into third place before falling off the last couple of weeks was still an accomplishment. Now 2011 everything but officially a rebuilding year, the club has many new faces and new enthusiasm. Winning a pennant is a goal, of course, but just being a better club with hope for even more down the line is the real target. With young and still unproven players manning three starting lineup slots plus some of the bullpen roles and perhaps even in the pitching rotation the Astros need a lot to go right in 2011 to show improvement in the NL Central standings. In 2010 the team ultimately finished 76-86 and in fourth place one game ahead of the Chicago Cubs. Many think that would be a realistic spot for the Astros again. If it would turn out that way Astro fans at least want to see young players with promise for more and a team that has a shot at being at least .500. While beating out the Reds, Cards and Brewers for a higher standing might be a tall order being better is not. The expected outfield of Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence is fine. Lee may be getting older and did have a down year at the bat in 2010, but he still hit 24 homes and drove in 89 runs. Bourn repped the Astros in the all star game and led the NL with 52 stolen bases. Defensively he was the best CF in he league again. He also used his overall speed to factor in a league leading 44 manufactured runs. That was still without mastering the bunt and hitting just .265 overall. As for Pence, he along with Lee and Berkman were expected to be the big bats all year. Lee slumped, Berkman was worse and later traded and Pence rebounded from a very poor start to finish admirably at .282 with 25 HR and 91 RBIs. Both Bourn and Pence provide plus defense. Alas, those are the only two positions on the club that can say that. Backups figure to be Brian Bogsevic as long as he has a decent spring and Jason Michaels who could play a lot more than in 2010 if Lee needs to spend some time at first base. On the infield 2010 started with Feliz, Manzella, Matsui and Berkman as the regular quartet. None of them are around any longer, although Manzella is still on the roster and could wind up in a back up role if not ticketed for AAA Oklahoma City. Now the infield has two young players and two newly acquired grizzled, but not really old, vets. The young players got extensive time with the Astros in the second half of 2011. They were playing when the team played better, yet were not always direct contributors. Third baseman Chris Johnson was the best. When called up he hit .300 for all 94 of the games he played. He finished at .308 with 11 HR and 52 RBI. Getting 341 official at bats allowed pitchers to try to adjust to Chris. He did a good job of over-coming new pitching patterns and gives Astro fans hope. Unfortunately, Johnson has a major weakness. He was the worst defensive third baseman in the National League. His 18 errors in 90 games played at the position was second most in the NL at the position. David Wright who had 20 played in 65 more games and fielded .956 compared to Johnson's .908. Chris needs to keep hitting. The other young player on the infield is first baseman Chris Wallace. Wallace has hit on every level in the minor leagues after being a first round draftee of the Cardinals in 2008. He never has hit less than .300 over a full season. Alas, that is the minor leagues. With the Astros in 2010 he played in 51 games and got 144 at bats. He struck out in 50 of them and only hit .222. The Astros will give him the position to lose in spring training. Chances are good he will hold on to it. What is more important is what he does once the games starting counting. The Astros almost desperately need Wallace to hit and hit with some punch. One of the main reasons why Wallace has to hit well is the same reason the Astros acquired both Clint Barmes to play shortstop and Bill Hall to handle second base. The team desperately needs run producers. In 2010 despite a pitching staff that ranked in the middle of the NL the hitting was at or near the bottom in most categories. The team average of .247 was 14th. The on base percentage of .303 was dead last as was the HR total of 108. The fact that the Astros were very efficient it driving in runners who got into scoring position was washed out by the fact they have far fewer chances than most clubs. The Astros new middle infielders of Barmes and Hall won't help much in the batting average or on base percentage. Both also strike out a lot. But they will provide more power which is very much needed. Defensively both would be classed in the average category with neither having great range. Make no mistake about it. Both are in Houston to hit the ball for extra bases. Jeff Keppinger will secure one of the backup roles as soon as his surgically repaired foot is healthy. Angel Sanchez's versatility and what he showed with the Astros in 2010 likely would put him in the other spot. However, all backup roles could be not solid until after the spring. Behind the plate is young Jason Castro. The lefty swinger hit just .205 in 195 at bats for the Astros in 2010. He showed a hard working attitude in the catching aspect of the job, ability to work well with pitchers and staff and enough mechanical solidarity that few don't expect his hitting to at least reach an acceptable level. Learning to block low pitches is is only defensive weakness. He has a solid arm. Humberto Quintero returns and may be the best 2 catcher in baseball. As with many clubs the 5 spot in the starting pitching rotation is open prior to camp. The veteran Nelson Figueroa is around to handle the job if he cannot be beaten out by a new comer. Jordan Lyles is the pitcher a lot of fans will be watching. As the top man in the Astro system his rise has been swift. He had some problems in a partial season in AAA in 2010 and may be more likely headed there to start 2011. Another name of note--with major league experience is Ryan Rowland-Smith. He will have to be a great deal more impressive than his 1-10 7.08 20 start season with Seattle in 2010. The rest of the rotation starts with Brett Myers who was 14-8 3.14 in 2010. The best pitcher on the Astro staff Myers went six or more innings in the first 32 of his 33 starts. Wandy Rodriguez who was guilty of aiding in the horrid start in 2010 bounced back into a solid season. The lefty was 11-12 with a 3.60 ERA and was extremely dependable the second half of the year. Bud Norris is the likely 3 to keep two lefties separate. Bud has as good or better total stuff than any Astro starter. 9-10 4.92 in 2010 he was inconsistent too often. J.A. Happ who came over in the deal that sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia was healthy and started 13 games in 2010. He was 5-4 3.75. In the bullpen the Astros traded Matt Lindstrom to Colorado. Lindstrom, though injured much of the second half, was part of the teams double 20 closers. Both Lindstrom with 23 and Brandon Lyon with 20 saves did a fine job. Now it is all up to Lyon. His setup man will be Wilton Lopez. In 68 games Lopez was 5-2 2.96. He has a rubber arm. Other bullpen candidates include Jeff Fulchino, lefty Fernando Abad--who might get a look at the 5 starter slot, Mark Melancon, Henry Villar, Wesley Wright and a number of others who will be in camp. The Astros have won four titles and two wild cards in the years of the NL Central. However, they have not tasted the post season since their National League champships season of 2005. They don't figure to taste the post season this year either. But they may be getting the ingredients in place for a big meal sooner rather than later. Next up: The NL Central Overview Prior to Spring Training.