Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/24/13
Picimg_mlb_apr_07_8e15
A dominant playoff performance out of San Francisco’s bullpen en route to a World Championship might have saved Tim Linceum‘s fantasy value. Still, that one month doesn’t forgive the other six in which Lincecum tortured fantasy owners. For the third straight year his walk rate rose, and for the second straight year his ground ball rate declined. Lincecum’s 14.0% HR/FB rate might be considered unlucky by some, especially for a player that calls such a pitcher-friendly park his home, but Lincecum forced infield flies just 3.8% of the time, well below the league average of 10.0%. Like BABIP, HR/FB rate is one of those stats that requires a little context to be properly understood, and pitchers that don’t induce a lot of infield flies (which won’t ever cross the fence) tend to have higher HR/FB rates. Lincecum was much better in the second half last year, posting a 3.83 ERA after the All-Star Break versus 6.42 before, but none of his peripheral stats really explain why he was better. Honestly, it just looks like a case of Lincecum being insanely unlucky before the break and slightly lucky after it. His month-by-month FIPs back this up. And one look at his yearly velocity chart is enough to scare anyone off. I wouldn’t expect Lincecum to return to his pre-2012 ways, but if he can at least get his walk rate back to his career average that should be enough to help him rebound and be a very useful fantasy pitcher. At a Glance Strengths: K, K/9, QS Neutral: W, L, ERA, WHIP, BB, BB/9 Weaknesses: none Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Gio Gonzalez (WAS) Likely scenario: Lance Lynn (STL), Yovani Gallardo (MIL), Matt Moore (TB) Worst-case scenario: Bud Norris (HOU) Tim Lincecum 2013 Fantasy Projection Remember what we said about Kyle Lohse and low-strikeout pitchers? (Click here if you don’t.) The opposite applies to Lincecum. While he was absolutely HORRENDOUS for half of last year, finishing the season with a 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 614th overall ranking, pitchers with high strikeout totals are usually more immune to fluctuations in ERA. Of course, I say usually because few pitchers (correction: no pitchers) will be able to maintain their value when their ERA nearly doubles, but I do believe that Lincecum’s surprisingly terrible 2012 was a blip on the radar — like a baby falling when it’s first learning to walk (though I guess that analogy works in reverse). Lincecum doesn’t have the same velocity and skill level he used to, and he stumbled and fell when he could no longer overmatch hitters. Hopefully his next steps in 2013 go a little more smoothly as he moves into the next phase of his career. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Gerald McCoy keeps the Jameis Winston hype in check

Gronkowski family to appear on 'Family Feud'

WATCH: Lloyd McClendon has all-time meltdown

Drew Bledsoe defends Tom Brady over Deflategate

Did Heat offer Dwyane Wade less than $10 million per season?

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

David Ortiz brushes aside talk of being 'washed up'

USA Women’s World Cup roster verdict: No excuse not to win

UCF had no idea UConn was creating a rivalry trophy

Cam Newton signs five-year, $103M extension with Panthers

Devils introduce new head coach John Hynes

Report: Heat could make a run at Kevin Durant

Russell Wilson on future with Seahawks: 'We'll see what happens'

QB Blake Sims misses playing for Alabama

WATCH: Joc Pederson hits longest home run of the season

WATCH: Joey Gallo homers in first career game

Former Mississippi State cheerleader suing ESPN after hit by golf cart

Jackson says Bills plan to give McCoy 300-plus carries

McCoy not happy Perryman played dodgeball while injured

College football playoff schedule for 2015: New Year's Eve?

How the Chicago Blackhawks are thriving in salary cap era

Report: Klay Thompson cleared for Game 1 of NBA Finals

Pettine views latest Manziel incident as a ‘non-story’

Nationals need Taylor to produce in Werth’s absence

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

USA Women’s World Cup: No excuse not to win

Projecting rosters for the 2015 MLB All-Star Game

What Peterson's return means

The Bulls and the culture of fitting in

X-factors for Cavs and Warriors

Pujols: Angels not 'Mike Trout show'

Adrian Peterson returns to Vikings

Chicago Bulls agree to deal with Fred Hoiberg

NBA should have 'legacy contracts' for long-time players

Atlanta Hawks unveil new logo

UAB fans celebrate football reinstatement

Sanchez backs off dismissal of Tebow

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.