Originally written January 18, 2013 on Baseball Professor:
Mlb-arizona-diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy‘s 2011 and 2012 seasons were actually very similar with one major difference: home runs allowed. Kennedy has always displayed slight fly ball tendencies, and in 2011 that wasn’t much of a problem. That year he allowed 19 homers with a 7.7% HR/FB rate, and he rode that below-league average mark to a surprising 2.88 ERA and a 21-win season. In 2012, Kennedy posted almost the exact same strikeout and walk rates as 2011, and batters didn’t hit many extra fly balls against him (42.1 FB% in 2012 versus 39.5% in 2011). The difference was he allowed 28 homers on the back of a 10.8% HR/FB rate, a much more reasonable mark given the ballpark he plays in. In fact, over the last three seasons Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed homers on exactly 10.8% of the flies they’ve allowed, and that accounts for them playing half their games at Chase Field and half in road parks. At a Glance Strengths: W, K, QS Neutral: ERA, WHIP, L, BB Weaknesses: HR Player Comparisons Best-case scenario:...
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