Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/14/14
Mlb-arizona-diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy‘s 2011 and 2012 seasons were actually very similar with one major difference: home runs allowed. Kennedy has always displayed slight fly ball tendencies, and in 2011 that wasn’t much of a problem. That year he allowed 19 homers with a 7.7% HR/FB rate, and he rode that below-league average mark to a surprising 2.88 ERA and a 21-win season. In 2012, Kennedy posted almost the exact same strikeout and walk rates as 2011, and batters didn’t hit many extra fly balls against him (42.1 FB% in 2012 versus 39.5% in 2011). The difference was he allowed 28 homers on the back of a 10.8% HR/FB rate, a much more reasonable mark given the ballpark he plays in. In fact, over the last three seasons Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed homers on exactly 10.8% of the flies they’ve allowed, and that accounts for them playing half their games at Chase Field and half in road parks. At a Glance Strengths: W, K, QS Neutral: ERA, WHIP, L, BB Weaknesses: HR Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: James Shields (KC) Likely scenario: A.J. Burnett (PIT), Ryan Dempster (BOS), Yovani Gallardo (MIL) Worst-case scenario: Edwin Jackson (CHC) Ian Kennedy 2013 Fantasy Projection Kennedy’s success completely hinges on his ability to limit the long ball as well as limit the damage done by the inevitable blast. I expect him to lower his WHIP from last year (1.30), and that will help him keep his ERA under 4.00. Just don’t expect a repeat of 2011′s Cy Young caliber performance. Even with his homer troubles, though, Kennedy is a durable starter who will top 200 innings (barring injury), approach 190-200 strikeouts, and probably win 15-18 games backed by a sneaky good Arizona lineup…as long as they don’t trade Justin Upton. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Former NFL wideout Joe Horn calls Roger Goodell 'the devil'

Dolphins expect Ndamukong Suh to attend voluntary OTAs

Kyle Long has great reaction to Bears releasing Ray McDonald

Hot start helps Rockets stave off elimination against Warriors

Matt Millen leaving ESPN for FOX, Big Ten Network

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Royals' Guthrie sets records in blowout loss to Yankees

John Farrell: Pitchers need an approved gripping substance

Cam Newton: Nobody has ever been who I'm trying to be

Bears cut Ray McDonald after domestic violence arrest

Report: Paul Pierce could opt out of contract, join Clippers

Report: NBA exploring moving start of Finals up

NFL OTAs: Learning, communication & camaraderie

Rockets players got media release about Warriors' sweep

Dwight Howard hangs with fans left stranded by Houston storm

Eight biggest disappointments a quarter way into MLB season

Stephen Curry leaves Game 4 after nasty fall, returns later

WATCH: Khris Davis trolls umps after controversial homer

Is Adrian Peterson leveraging himself out of the league?

Mascot creates controversy with 'Police Lives Matter' sign

The Talented Mr. Blatt

The curious case of Frank Kaminsky

Is the Cavs' Matthew Dellavedova a dirty player?

LeBron lifts Cavaliers to brink of Finals, but are they ready?

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

WATCH: Curry leaves game after nasty fall

Royals' Guthrie sets records in blowout

Bears cut McDonald after incident

Report: Pierce could opt out of contract

Could the NBA Finals be moved up?

The Talented Mr. Blatt

Is Dellavedova a dirty player?

Ballplayers in the military: A tribute

Most valuable non-QB for each NFL team

WATCH: LeBron's ferocious dunk in traffic

Kelly drops hint about ND offense

John Madden: Last SB play will 'torment' Carroll

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.