Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/15/13
There’s no doubt that Will Middlebrooks had a great 75-game debut in 2012, just ask Kevin Youkilis, but how much of it was luck? If you look at his 21.4% HR/FB mark you’ll realize he probably won’t hit home runs at the same pace in 2013. His .335 BABIP was a bit on the high side, but if you look at his .345 xBABIP you can make the case that he was a little unlucky in the batting average department. Still, a player with a 4.5 BB% and 24.5 K% isn’t going to get a lot of support from me in repeating a .288 batting average. Pair all that with the fact he’s coming off wrist surgery and you have a player going into 2013 with a lot of questions, but some nice upside. At a Glance Strengths: RBI, SLG Neutral: BA, R, HR, OBP, OPS Weaknesses: SB, BB, K Player Comparison Best-case scenario: Chase Headley (SD) Likely scenario: Alex Rodriguez (NYY), David Freese (STL), Mike Moustakas (KC) Worst-case scenario: Trevor Plouffe (MIN) Will Middlebrooks 2013 Fantasy Projection Because he plays half of his games at Fenway Park you should expect a higher than average HR/FB rate, but 21.4% is too high. Let’s say he lands around the 16% mark in 2013 with the same fly ball rate of 35.0%; that would peg him at 22-23 homers. Of course, if you’re a Bill James disciple then you will be expecting a line of .277/75/29/99/11 which is a best-case scenario if I’ve ever seen one. Middlebrooks is a solid player who, if healthy, could be a little streaky in batting average, but should provide solid power and RBI numbers given the lineup he is in.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Everett Golson responds to Paul Finebaum's criticism

Mark Sanchez says it ‘crazy’ to call Chip Kelly racist

Malcolm Butler daring Brady to throw his way in practice

Geno Smith confident worst is behind him and the Jets

Ronda Rousey knocks out Bethe Correia in 34 seconds


Von Miller earns dismissal from NFL’s drug program

Ian Kennedy watches birth of daughter on FaceTime before start

Matt Williams wants Bryce Harper to stop getting ejected

Five most underrated players in the NFL

Larry Lucchino stepping down as Red Sox CEO

Las Vegas Mob Museum to open FIFA corruption exhibit

WATCH: Benches clear during Royals-Blue Jays game

Jim Harbaugh gives Nicki Minaj a shoutout on Twitter

The Kardashian sisters still call Caitlyn Jenner 'Bruce'

Tennessee fan recreates Neyland Stadium in backyard

Lolo Jones: I could last at least a minute against Rousey

Bears have very strict rules for media during training camp

Jamaal Charles: I feel like I'm the LeBron James of football

Ronda Rousey: I'll fight Cyborg if she stops taking steroids

Danny Garcia beats Paulie Malignaggi, remains undefeated

Bobby Wagner, Seahawks agree to contract extension

Blount won't talk about reported failed conditioning test

Greg Hardy helps pay Cowboys fans to fly anti-Eagles banner

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Sanchez: It's 'crazy' to call Chip racist

Ronda Rousey calls out Cyborg

Five most underrated players in the NFL

Five potential NFL salary cap casualties this preseason

Winners and losers of the 2015 MLB trade deadline

Pirates do Pirates at deadline: Neat little moves

Mets acquire Cespedes from Tigers

Ranking the NFL’s 32 head coaches

Five worst baseball trades since 2000

Examining the state of the NFL

Puig: Broke out of slump by playing baseball video games

Braves dump risk, exchange it for risk

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker