Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/11/13
Mlb-rays-tigers-aug
Coming into 2012, Jeremy Hellickson was one of my big bust candidates. In 2011, he won the AL Rookie of the Year award based on his 2.95 ERA over 189 innings, but he didn’t boast very good strikeout (5.57 K/9) or walk rates (3.43 BB/9). In fact, a lot of his success came from a .223 BABIP and 82.0 LOB%, which would explain his very high 4.44 FIP in 2011. Well, in 2012 Hellickson didn’t really change much. He improved his strikeouts (6.31 K/9) and walks (3.00 BB/9), but those are far from elite numbers. Again, Hellickson benefited from a low BABIP (.261) and high strand rate (82.7 LOB%), which helped him keep a 3.10 ERA despite posting a 4.60 FIP. It’s now been two seasons with Hellickson defying the laws of luck and chances are it’s going to blow up in his face eventually, but if he can do it for a third straight season we will have to start calling it a trend rather than dumb luck. My money is on the former and that this will finally be the year where Hellickson shows his true colors on the surface rather than them lurking under the surface. At a Glance Strengths: IP, ERA, QS Neutral: W, BB, WHIP Weaknesses: L, K/9, K Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Matt Cain (SF) Likely scenario: Tim Hudson (ATL), Wade Miley (ARI), Jon Niese (NYM) Worst-case scenario: Gavin Floyd (CHW) Jeremy Hellickson 2013 Fantasy Projection There is one thing that Hellickson improved on in 2012 that I liked; he improved his GB/FB ratio from 0.78 to 1.12, which is a major improvement. Even as a fly ball pitcher, he always benefited from pitching in a great pitcher’s park (1.07 HR/9 at home vs. 1.53 on road). Inducing more ground balls should help keep his home runs under control. There’s a chance that Hellickson continues this trend of high strand rates and low BABIPs, but if by July 2013 he’s waiver-wire fodder don’t act surprised. While we’ve seen recent success in Matt Cain‘s ability to maintain a low BABIP rate, he also has great control of the strike zone. However, no pitcher in history has been able to maintain this level of success with runners on base and Hellickson’s recent FIPs (4.44, 4.60) are an image of how ugly it could get.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

WATCH: D'Angelo Russell hit in groin by LeBron pass

Kobe Bryant has great response to Tyronn Lue story

Report: St. Louis Blues no longer interested in Jonathan Drouin

Doc Rivers: Warriors have 'swagger' of defending champion

Damian Lillard added as a finalist for 2016 U.S. Olympic Team

Celtics legend Paul Pierce prepares for what ‘could be’ his last game in Boston

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Free-agent WR Josh Morgan accidentally shot himself, charged with crime

Jon Beason retires after nine NFL seasons

Brewers Association sends Peyton Manning case of craft beer

Report: Police recommend charges against LeSean McCoy

Heat interested in Kings’ 3-point specialist Omri Casspi

Rick Pitino thinks Louisville should be fined $10 million for scandal

Kevin McHale: James Harden being out of shape hurt Rockets early

WATCH: Kevin Love re-injures left shoulder

Johnny Manziel’s grandpa on ex-girlfriend: ‘The girl has her problems’

Andy Dalton reunited with missing luggage thanks to social media

Chad ‘Ochocinco’ Johnson used to soak his ankles in urine

Why Tom Thibodeau needs to be in New York

Defensemen in high demand as NHL trade deadline looms

Thank you Daniel Bryan

The timeless greatness of Jaromir Jagr

Security guard indicted for assaulting University of Houston football fan

The LeBron-Kobe rivalry and Finals matchup that never was

Mario Williams recognizes Bills may release him

Terrell Owens says Cris Carter 'begged his way' into HOF

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Thank you Daniel Bryan

The timeless greatness of Jaromir Jagr

The NCAAB power rankings

Report: Kings to keep coach George Karl

Was Alain Vigneault right about NHL's lack of punishment towards Wayne Simmonds?

Report: Knicks fire coach Derek Fisher

The best and worst commercials from Super Bowl 50

Best and worst from Super Bowl 50

Six best plays from Super Bowl 50

Eli doesn't look thrilled as Peyton wins Super Bowl

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker