Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/16/14
Padres_vs_rangers_92ea
Derek Holland has been backed by an elite offense for his entire career, which would explain his 39-29 career record (57.4 W%) despite a 4.71 ERA and 4.48 FIP. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers’ offense operates without Josh Hamilton in the middle of the order, but Holland should be someone you can count on him for double-digit wins almost every year. In 2012, he went 9-0 in starts where he allowed three or fewer runs. He also earned two wins in starts where he allowed seven and five runs against the Angels and Rays, respectively. Somewhere, Cliff Lee is jealous. However, none of this helped his home run problem as his 1.64 HR/9 last year was the main culprit of his ERA ballooning up to 4.67 (4.06 career ERA). Despite posting a solid 1.22 WHIP, which is his career-best by far, Holland regressed from his promising 2011 season and he only has the home runs to blame. He’s going into his fifth pro season and now has two horrible home run seasons (combined 1.66 HR/9) sandwiching two successful ones (combined 0.99 HR/9). At a Glance Strengths: IP, W, K Neutral: QS, L, BB, WHIP, OBA Weaknesses: ERA, HR/9 Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Anibal Sanchez (DET) Likely scenario: Phil Hughes (NYY), Mike Minor (ATL), Matt Garza (CHC) Worst-case scenario: Ervin Santana (KC) Derek Holland 2013 Fantasy Projection It’s clear that Holland’s value comes and goes with how well he can control home runs. Last year, his batted ball profile trended away from his promising 2011 line (20.0 LD%/46.4 GB%/33.6 FB%). He induced fewer ground balls (43.1%), more fly balls (40.1%) and had a career worst 15.2% HR/FB. That’s a recipe for disaster. That being said, there is still cause for optimism; Holland has made nice strides in controlling his walks, going down from 3.77 BB/9 in 2010 to 3.05 in 2011 and finally 2.67 in 2012. During that span his strikeout rate has decreased some, but it landed at a respectable level (7.44 K/9) last year. Also, his 4.14 xFIP (which normalizes for home runs) shows some of his ERA potential (I feel weird calling that potential, but I digress) if he can keep his home runs under control. We could be looking at a top-25 pitcher if everything falls in the right place in 2013, which is why he’s a decent flier late in your draft in hopes of him correcting his home run problem.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Report: Discussions to bring NFL team to L.A. are progressing

Report: Chris Mullin expected to take St. John's job

Michigan State beats Louisville, punches Final Four ticket

Ex-NHL player viciously attacks opponent before game

Rick Barnes a possibility for Tennessee coaching job?

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Report: NFL looking into Bill Belichick's camera ideas

Saints CB Brian Dixon arrested in Miami

CC Sabathia goes off about spring training stats

Kentucky remains unbeaten after thrilling win over ND

Alabama DT arrested on domestic violence charges again

John Calipari blasted for postgame interview

Adam Morrison trolled fan who made JJ Redick comment

Jim Harbaugh finished fourth in student government election

WATCH: Notre Dame gets warm reception upon return home

WATCH: Kris Letang hospitalized after hit

Aaron Rodgers, sports writer get into it over on-court access

Sam Dekker's hot shooting sends Wisconsin to Final Four

Jim McElwain complains about Florida roster

Mark Few: I put Coach K up there with John Wooden

WATCH: Enes Kanter embraces boos in return to Utah

Mariners prospect dies from boat accident injuries

T.J. Ford sends heartfelt tweet about Rick Barnes

Bruins coach suits up as backup goalie

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Report: Chris Mullin to take St. John's job

Report: NFL looking into more cameras

CC Sabathia goes off about spring stats

John Fox: Cutler will have to earn job

Texas eyeing Shaka Smart, Gregg Marshall?

WATCH: Brady jumps off cliff in Costa Rica

WATCH: 2 Chainz beats Nique in HORSE

Elite Eight preview and predictions: Notre Dame vs. Kentucky

Elite Eight preview and predictions: Arizona vs. Wisconsin

NFL owners chose cost over game integrity

Be careful how loudly you cheer on Mo'ne Davis' olive branch

James Harden and the collective consciousness

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.