Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/2/12

Boom or bust. That’s Carlos Pena in a nutshell. OK, so he hasn’t topped .227 in any of the last three seasons and has averaged a modest 82 RBI over the last two seasons, but there’s still some life in that bat of his. He hits a lot of fly balls and touches one homer every five flies (an elite rate). He’s completely unable to provide anything in the way of batting average, but if you’re looking for a cheap source of power production (read: HR and RBI) then Pena might be your man.

Best case scenario: Ryan Howard (PHI)
Similar players:  Mark Trumbo (LAA), Adam Dunn (CHW), Adam Lind (TOR)
Worst case scenario: 2011′s Adam Dunn (CHW) but probably with more power

Strengths

Power, hitting versus RHP. Play the splits right with Pena and you could strike it big. He’s a career .251 hitter versus RHP versus .211 career versus LHP and has the 12th most home runs in the league over the last three seasons, a fantasy relevant time frame.

Weaknesses

Batting average, hitting versus LHP. Pena has batted under .200 against LHP in three of the last four seasons. If you were stuck with Dunn last season you know how frustrating those golden sombrero nights are. If you’re starting Pena make sure to hedge his deficiencies in batting average with some value average guys like Michael Young.

ADP Report (210th overall)

An ADP this late means you’re closing in on the end of your standard drafts. This is a good time to take players who fit one of two bills: major upside guys or guys who are extreme specialists in one or two categories. Pena is certainly the latter. You know the average won’t be there, but if you’re in the 18th-22nd round and you’re getting a potential 30-homer, 100-RBI guy you don’t have a lot to complain about.

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