Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/12/12
Mlb_jun_01_a591

Michael Bourn is about as sure a thing as you can get in fantasy sports. You know you’re getting 50+ steals along with at least a .270 batting average, .340 on-base percentage and 90 runs aka Brett Gardner last year. Now that he’s on the Braves, you can probably tack on about 10 more runs and that .270 batting average is an absolute floor — he’s hit over .280 twice in the last three years. I should note that his 26.6 LD% will come down in 2012 and his batting average will come down as a result (his xBA last year was .281, which seems about right). Bourn will single handedly carry steals for you in roto leagues, which alone is a nice quality, but he has far outgrown the “one category contributor” title.

Best case scenario: Jose Reyes (MIA) with no power
Similar players: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Brett Gardner (NYY), Elvis Andrus (TEX) with more steals
Worst case scenario: Cameron Maybin (SD) with no power

Strengths

Steals, runs, lineup. The Braves lineup is strong and should give Bourn plenty of chances to cross home plate, which wasn’t the case when Bourn was in Houston.

Weaknesses

Power. Not that this comes as a surprise, but Bourn has absolutely no power to speak of (career .087 ISO) and batting leadoff gives him virtually no RBI opportunities.

ADP Report (56.5)

I’m glad to see that the fans are believing in Bourn because he definitely has the skill set to be a top 50 player. After finishing second (61), second (52) and first (62) in steals the last three years, Bourn is probably the favorite to finish on top again in 2012. Add in the new potential for 100 runs and Bourn should have no problem finishing in the top 30 in PSR.

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