Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/18/13
Hunter Pence has only played six major league seasons and won’t turn 30 until two weeks into the 2013 season. Still, his stat profile reads more like a player in his mid-30s.While he’s consistently hit about 22-25 homers (he’s actually landed in that range in the last five season), that’s about the only consistent part of Pence’s game. After stealing 11+ bases in his first four season, including 18 bases in 2010, Pence has swiped just 13 bags in the last two years. In the last three years he’s batted .282, .314, and .253, one of the more erratic batting lines in the league. Of course, that shouldn’t be surprising as Pence’s strikeout rates have risen over the last three years from 16.0% in 2010 to 18.6% in 2011 to a career-high 21.1% in 2012.With declining steal totals and rising strikeout totals we’d expect Pence to display more of a power profile, and indeed he has as his RBI total has risen every year since 2009. (Of course, his .172 ISO last year was a career-worst, which seems to directly contradict his career-best 104 RBI).At a GlanceStrengths: RBINeutral: R, HR, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Matt Holliday (STL)Likely scenario: Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Matt Wieters (BAL)Worst-case scenario: Colby Rasmus (TOR)Hunter Pence 2013 Fantasy ProjectionI don’t know what Pence will bat this year, but .281 seems like a safe bet considering where he’s been for the majority of his career. Unfortunately, given his recent batting trends, there’s also the chance that Pence repeats with an average around .260 or worse. I would not draft him simply expecting the batting average to rebound. Rising strikeout rates with consistently below average line drive rates could spell doom for his BA.The good news is the rest of Pence’s line is pretty consistent. Expect 80-95 runs, 20-25 homers, and 90+ RBI, and anything you get in the steals column should be viewed as a bonus. Pence isn’t the balanced, five-category contributor I thought he’d develop into, but he can still contribute at least a little across the board.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Tigers are officially “rebooting”

Jerry Jones backs Roger Goodell amid Deflategate controversy

Brady, agent contacted AT&T in attempt to retrieve deleted texts

Report: Chancellor 'strongly considering a camp holdout'

Colts become favorites to win AFC with Brady suspended

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Dodgers reportedly acquire Mat Latos and Michael Morse

Cardinals HC Bruce Arians calls Jen Welter a 'trailblazer'

Troy Tulowitzki felt 'blindsided' by trade to Blue Jays

Drew Storen not happy about Jonathan Papelbon trade

Kraft apologizes for accepting team Deflategate penalty

RG3 reportedly showing improvement during offseason

All Panthers home games will also be broadcast in Spanish

Report: Rangers are front-runner for Cole Hamels

Giants owner calls Pierre-Paul debacle ‘very disappointing’

Panthers WR cited for marijuana paraphernalia, had child in car

Bruins-Canadiens Winter Classic details announced

Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez: Twin trade chips

Next summer's top 10 NBA free agents

Canseco will live as a woman to support Caitlyn Jenner

Giants owner says nobody from team has seen JPP's hand

Conor McGregor admits he's intimidated by Ronda Rousey

NFL requests police guard Roger Goodell's Maine home

Baseball Hall of Fame changes voter eligibility rules

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Next summer's top 10 NBA free agents

Who is the NL's new top shortstop?

Cardinals HC Bruce Arians calls Jen Welter a 'trailblazer'

Mets still act like a small-market team

Tom Brady: I did nothing wrong

NFL upholds Tom Brady's suspension, legal battle likely

Cardinals hire first female NFL coach

Larry Bird: Michael Jordan would kill me in 1-on-1 now

Seau family: HOF broke their word

Kobe to see time at power forward next year

Mike Pettine not ruling out Manziel

Galette appears to unload on Payton

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker