Projecting the 2009 Cubs: Luis Vizcaino

2009 PROJECTIONS Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Ted Lilly | Sean Marshall | Kevin Gregg | Aaron Heilman | Chad Gaudin | Carlos Marmol | Angel Guzman | Neal Cotts | Luis Vizcaino LUIS VIZCAINO STATS Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus Vizcaino is a flyball pitcher coming off a down season with the Rockies in which he posted an ERA above 5. He's had his ups and downs in his career. He's posted and ERA of 3.75 or below in 4 seasons, but has also had 3 seasons with an ERA of 4.66 or above. Much to my surprise, his projections weren't bad at all. 3 of the 6 projections (they now include PECOTA) were for the Rockies and 3 were as a Cub. I didn't bother park-adjusting his numbers as Wrigley is nearly as much an offensive park as Coors' is. Luis Vizcaino IP H HR BB K ERA CAIRO 64 58 8 28 58 4.52 Marcels 56 54 7 25 49 4.34 ZiPS 58 53 9 27 62 4.34 James 58 54 8 25 52 4.06 CHONE 53 51 6 25 49 4.25 PECOTA 52.1 47 7 23 51 4.06 Average 57.1 53 8 26 54 4.27 A lot better than I was thinking it would be. IP_Relief ERA W/L Win% WAR_Relief WAR $WAR Actual Diff. Vizcaino 70 4.27 1.06 0.51 0.42 0.42 $2.43 $3.50 -$1.07 +/- $WAR: $50.41 million We've no completed the pitching staff with the exception of the combo of Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija who are the "extra" relievers. The pitching staff has been worth nearly 22 WAR. Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile) Replacement level team: 48.6 wins Kevin Gregg: 1.08 WAR Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR Ted Lilly: 2.92 WAR Sean Marshall: 1.84 WAR Aaron Heilman: 0.61 WAR Chad Gaudin: 0.52 WAR Carlos Marmol: 1.41 WAR Angel Guzman: 0.11 WAR Neal Cotts: 0.31 WAR Luis Vizcaino: 0.42 WAR TOTAL: 70.6 wins