Prospect Profiles 2010: Xavier Paul

Overview-2009 started with a huge surge at AAA for the 4th round selection from way back in 2003. Unfortunately, when it finally seemed like Paul was going to get his shot after the suspension of Manny Ramirez, the rest of his year got sidetracked by a staph infection and an ankle fracture. Talk about terrible timing. Still, Paul is a solid talent that has little to prove in the minor leagues, so he should have a role with the Dodgers in 2010.

Hitting-He still has solid bat speed and control, which he pairs with solid power. It's a decent package to have, but I don't think there's much projection left in those tools. His plate discipline has always been below average, and it's one area where he could still make strides. It seemed like Paul was making progress last year, but any hopes of seeing that borne out over a longer time period was ended by injuries. Lefties are still problematic for him, though I can't see a mechanical reason why that is, and I fear this might always limit him to being a platoon bat at best.

Fielding-Better suited in the corners of the outfield where his range makes him a potential plus defender, Paul can play center if needed, but he's far less adept there. A former pitcher that touched mid-90s, Paul has a cannon that can make throws from anywhere. I've seen him make flat footed throws from moderately deep center on a line to home, and it was accurate too. Of course, the fact that he was catching them flat footed in the first place is part of his defensive problem. He never really refined a lot of his skills, and while none of the individual problems are big negatives by themselves, the culmination of them lead to problems. Drifting back on flyballs here, throwing flat footed there, and it eventually leads to sloppy play, no matter how athletically gifted one might be.

Baserunning-I wouldn't call Paul a plus runner, but he has good speed. He is a much more effective runner when he gets underway than from a dead start, which limits his base stealing potential.

Mental-Resilient individual with good makeup.

Health-Previous to 2009, Paul had only dealt with minor eye and back issues. However, last year he was out for months with a staph infection in his leg, and when he was ready to come back from that ailment, he ended up fracturing his ankle. Neither of those injuries should be a problem going into 2010, but he did basically lose a year of development.

Performance-Paul already shows enough skills to be a fourth outfielder in the major leagues, but when looking for starting potential in him, a surge in either power or plate discipline would help a lot. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like either is coming, as his walk rate (7.8%), strikeout rate (19%), and power (.172) didn't show huge improvement even in the limited 2009 sample size when he was tearing the cover off the ball.

His surface line of .328/.378/.500/.878 looks impressive, but again, it was in Albuquerque. Normalized for park factors, his OPS is more around the .800 range, and given his age, he still merely looks like a fourth outfielder.

Other-Lost his home to Hurricane Katrina.

Projection-It's possible that Paul could still be a starting center fielder for a team that can afford to give him a chance, but that team is likely not going to be the Dodgers. At best, he might hit 15 homers with a solid average, solid defense, and average plate discipline. However, I still think his best role is as a fourth outfielder that can play every position and hit about .270-.280 with some pop from the left side.

Paul is ready for his shot at the major league roster right now, but the Dodgers insist on signing veterans to take up the reserve roles. As such, he's blocked again and will likely be returning to AAA, but I wouldn't be surprised if he spends a good amount of time as a Dodger.