In 2008 and 2009, Ryan Rowland-Smith was a solid mid-rotation starter, posting sub-4.00 ERAs and reasonable FIPs. At age 27 entering 2010, he seemed like he’d settle in as a solid contributor for years to come.
And then, the wheels quite abruptly stopped rolling.
Rowland-Smith cost the Seattle Mariners 1.6 wins in 2010, the worst WAR mark among pitchers. He deserved nearly all of his 6.75 ERA according to FIP and xFIP, and saw the values of all four of his pitches take nosedives.
So, what exactly happened here?
Rowland-Smith throws four pitches–an 86-92 mph fastball, a high-70’s slider, a low-70’s curveball, and an 80ish changeup.
He uses the heater around 55% of the time, with the curve and change 12-18% each and the slider picking up the rest.
When a pitcher’s ERA doubles, something’s supposed to go wrong. Maybe he was hurt and his velocity dropped. Maybe he lost his mechanics and his velocity dropped. Maybe he fell in love with a pitch he shouldn’t have.
But no, Rowland-Smith essentially took the same approach in 2010 as he did in his solid 2009, except he threw a few more changeups and a few fewer curveballs. Considering that his changeup was the only pitch that didn’t completely implode on Rowland-Smith in 2010, that was smart, and certainly not the problem. His velocity was also roughly the same–his slider even gained a bit of velocity.
But man, everything just went wrong. Rowland-Smith’s popup rate was cut in half, his HR/FB ratio overcorrected from 2009’s low, and his fastball, curve, and changeup all drew fewer swings and misses. His walk rate went up, he threw fewer first pitch-strikes, and batters showed a slightly better ability to swing at strikes and take balls, leading to better contact against both.
But the weird thing about it? Nothing–and I mean nothing--jumps out as the cause for the Aussie’s collapse. Sure, his BABIP went from .243 to .309, and his HR/FB rate doubled, but that should’ve just taken him to the range of his 2009 xFIP–4.88. At that level, at least he’s a serviceable back-of-the-rotation guy.
But no.
There’s an ominous lesson in Rowland-Smith’s 2010. He was essentially the same pitcher doing the same things in the same amounts, but he seemingly lost just a little of everything. Just a small decline in first-pitch strikes, swings and misses, balls taken, line drive rate, ground ball rate, fastball velocity, and a couple other things, and all of a sudden you’ve gone from a solid major league pitcher to the Pacific Coast League.
So, if there’s a lesson here, it’s that pitchers should always strive to stay at the top of their game, because the slightest slip can lead to quite the cascade effect.
And if anyone can point to a stat that better explains Rowland-Smith’s collapse, I’d love to hear about it.
Original Story:
http://calltothepen.com/2010/11/29/ry...
