Found February 07, 2013 on Obstructed View OLD:
Boston_red_sox_efce
Felix Hernandez is an incredible pitcher. I'd take Clayton Kershaw over him, sure, and maybe Matt Cain. Other than that, though, Felix might be the most valuable pitcher in the game today. That being said, he's not worth 7 years and $25 million a year. No pitcher is (or, I should say, was), unless he is vintage Pedro or Maddux. Unfortunately (for the Mariners), that's exactly what's about to happen. What baffles me isn't the amount of money on an annual basis. Hernandez is a demonstrably better pitcher than Zack Greinke, who has an AAV of $24.5 million. What baffles me is the timing: Felix had 2 years left before he was slated to be a free agent. The Mariners are agreeing to take on an insane amount of risk with absolutely no compensation. If the Mariners got a hometown discount on Hernandez, I shudder to think what his fair-market value is. Here's a thought experiment for you. Take 10 pitchers at random. How many of them have not missed a start to injury in the past 7 years? Statistically, probably 2? 1? Catastrophic injuries happen to pitchers all the time, lesser injuries to almost every pitcher. Hernandez already has 1620 major league under his belt. I'd wager the probability that the Mariners get a positive ROI with Hernandez is around 5%. They aren't even in contention right now! The mind boggles. What this does mean is that the market for Bourn probably just shrunk by one team (unless the Mariners are really stepping it up to compete this year). That's a good thing for the Cubs. Chicago doesn't have a great chance at Bourn, but it grows nearly every day… The post Seattle just lost their minds appeared first on Obstructed View.
2 Comments:
  • Spend all that money on one player.Another losing season
  • Greetings,

    Yardbarker's contributing columnists are one conflicted crew.

    Just last week there was belly-aching over the Mariners's ownership being unwilling to pay enough to retain quality players.

    Then, when the team's mainstay is about to sign a long-term deal for money that will look reasonable at the end of the contract, they go weak in the knees.

    At 26, Felix Hernandez is likely to have more than seven seasons left in the tank.

    Think about the Yankees running around signing much older has-beens. Can you say "Freddy Garcia? Andy Pettite?"

    If Felix flops, I will take the well-earned heat, but for now, think of the hue and cry that would go up if "The King" followed Ichiro to the Bronx.

    Regards,

    Andy in Vancouver.
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