Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (43-43) v Washinton Natinals (26-61)

Finally, some baseball that counts is going to be played again! Wednesday felt like the slowest day of the year. The Cubs kick off a short east coast roadtrip against the Natinals, who have an execrable .299 (!!) winning percentage. Actually, oddly enough their stats look eerily similar to the Brewers. They are tied for the 5th-best offense in the NL (wOBA of .332), and their pitchers have compiled a 4.68 FIP, which actually beats Brewers FIP of 4.77 (only the Phillies are worse). What separates the two teams, however, is defense. The Natinals are dead last in the majors defense, accruing a UZR of -33.4 on the season, while the Brewers UZR is 20.0. The big culprit here is Adam Dunn, who has accured a comical -21.6 UZR between 1b, LF, and RF this season - if you run into anyone on the Series of Tubes that is pining for Adam Dunn instead of Bradley, be sure to point this out to them. Ryan Zimmerman and recently-acquired Nyjer Morgan are the only above-average regulars of defensive consequence on the team. Injuries Lee’s neck spasms seemed to be acting up again, though the fact that he was able to play on Sunday (and knocked in a run in the game) seems to suggest that they aren’t as severe as they were earlier in the season. Soto is on the DL with an oblique strain and is rehabbing it in AZ. Soto thinks it wasn’t too serious and he won’t be out for much longer than the minimum. Dempster is on the DL with a broken big toe and should miss 3 or 4 starts. Last I heard, Hart will be back to take his turn in the rotation on Monday. Experienced mop-wielder David Patton is on the DL with a case of We-can-stash-you-on-the-DL-until-the-roster-expansions-happen-itis. Miles still remains on the DL, doing a rehab stint. The Cubs will keep him down there until mlb rules force their hand. There’s a decent chance that he might replace Fontenot, as he appears to be deep in Lou’s doghouse right now. For the Natinals, not much to say. Dmitri Young is rehabbing back/hip problems in the minors, but doesn’t really have a place with the team when he gets there. Catcher and Rule 5 steal Jesus Flores is pretty much out for the season with a stress fracture in his shoulder. Players to watch As I mentioned above, the Nats offense is pretty good. Five of their regulars have above average wOBAS - Willingham (.429), Dunn (.398), Johnson (.374), Zimmerman (.355), and Morgan (.338). When Flores was healthy, he was posting a .387 wOBA too. Not too shabby. For the Cubs, it’s gotta be Bradley after his guarantee last weekend that he rediscovered his LH swing. Let’s hope that he’s right. Pitching Matchups Thursday Home Run Harden, RHP (5.17,3.50) v John Lannan, RHP (4.77,4.42), 6:05 PM CT Lannan and his 4.02 K/9 is the Natinals erstwhile ‘ace’, even though he’s been outpitched by Zimmermann. Honestly, I’m surprised his FIP is so low given that he hardly strikes anyone out, doesn’t have particularly great control (3.13 BB/9), and isn’t particularly good at disallowing HRs (0.96 HR/9). Shawn (and others) have done a much better job discussing what’s up with Harden this year than I can ever do. Something is probably up but there’s a healthy dose of bad luck in those numbers. Friday Bag of Balls, RHP (3.79,3.90) v Scott Olsen, LHP (5.20,4.74), 6:05 PM CT Olsen has made 3 starts after coming off a DL stint for shoulder tendinitis in late June. He dominated the Marlins at their cavernous stadium in his first start, and almost threw a complete game against the Braves in his next start despite some control problems (5 BBs). His strikeout rate has collapsed since his breakout season in 2006 with the Marlins, and I’m surprised to find that he was never really as good as I remembered (FIP that year was 4.33). This should be a good game for Reed Johnson and (especially) Jeff Baker to break out their bats and go bananas. As far as Z goes, he might be due for some regression soon. His FB rate has gone way up (34.9 to 41.4) but he has managed to suppress the damage done on those balls (5.8% HR/FB). It might be related to the jump in his strikeout rate this season. Saturday Ted Lilly, LHP (3.83,4.00) v Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (3.59,4.33) , 6:05 PM CT The Strasburg-Zimmerman combo is going to do good things for this team down the road. The Nats just need to make sure that they can surround them with enough talent to actually win something. He’s been quite good so far, posting a K/9 of 9.79 with a BB/9 of 2.93 and a HR/9 of 0.94. He’s mainly a fastball pitcher, though he does occasionally mix in a slider, curveball, and change. Hopefully Soriano can zero on on this guy. Lilly didn’t get the chance to knock Yadier Molina over again in the ASG (since they were on the same team, he would have to have done it with his Super Fastball), so hopefully he can channel that rage into this game. The Natinals hit lefties about as well as they do righties, so no real platoon advantage here for either team. Sunday Randy Wells, RHP (3.66,4.23) v Garrett Mock, RHP (4.22,4.41), 12:05 PM CT It’s not official yet, but it looks like Wells will probably start this game. If I were Lou I’d start Hart here against the Nats and save Wells for the Phillies. There’s an off-day on thursday to reshuffle the rotation so it’s not like you’re reducing the number of Wells starts on the season by doing that. He was pretty good in his last start - he really shut down Pujols. Ludwick had his number though, and I think it’s just one of those tip your cap games as far as Ludwick and Wainwright go. Mock has only pitched 54 innings in the majors, mostly as a reliever, and this will be his first start of the season. He hasn’t done much to distinguish himself so far - 8 walks and 6 strikeouts in 13 innings out of the bullpen. ZiPS seems to like his minor league numbers though, and has him pegged as just about average. That could just be a “we know nothing” type of projection though (not sure how they work in minor league numbers). I’m going to be traveling (yet again) during this game, which is a bummer because most of my family will be there and as such they’d have a decent chance of getting on TV, given how empty that park usually is. The park itself is actually pretty nice - it’s getting there that’s a pain in the ass (and the neighborhood around it blows) Prediction Cubs win 3 out of 4.