If acknowledging -- and then working to address -- our personal weaknesses is the single most effective way of getting better at something, then allow me to employ that strategy on myself right now: When it comes to constructing a baseball roster, I'm an idealist at heart. I want a potent blend of youth, talent and upside at every position, even when I know that it's completely unrealistic to want such a thing. Even more than that, though, I covet stability and the notion of stable long-term solutions. Perhaps too many bad experiences with the Rangers' various and sundry stop-gap measures over the years drove me into that school of thought.
And it's because I'm an idealist that I sometimes have difficulty appreciating imperfect, albeit still useful players (such as Julio Borbon, whom I waxed poetic on a few weeks ago), or guys who don't necessarily appeal to my sabermetric sensibilities. In the case of Tommy Hunter, however, I'm hopelessly conflicted. Despite never being the sort of strikeout-heavy pitcher that I (we?) tend to obsess about, Hunter's popularity surged last summer as he posted 100-plus above-average innings in a starting capacity, flashed a curveball that was at times evocative of Roy Halladay's, and made the typically yawn-worthy "workmanlike" six-inning start fun to watch again.
But the narrative is quite a bit different this year, and that's where my personal conflict begins. Hunter ably stabilized the Rangers' starting rotation during a splendid June-through-July run that found them winning 35 out of 54 games and effectively running away with the division, and did so while himself going 9-2 with a shiny 3.31 ERA -- numbers that appeared to convince some that he was possibly more than a mid-rotation starter and had some prematurely penciling him into the Rangers' post-season rotation ahead of C.J. Wilson and/or Colby Lewis. The phrase "all [Hunter] does is win" springs to mind here. And on the one hand, regardless of how much of that success was the product of a rock-bottom BABIP (or mostly luck), I'm really rather grateful to Hunter for his efforts.
But appreciation of past performance and performance sustainability are two entirely different kettles of fish, and the problems going forward with Hunter are becoming more apparent. He's not a strikeout pitcher and never will be a strikeout pitcher, but any time you're flirting with the bottom of the league in that category (4.5 K/9; eighth-worst out of 138 pitchers with 90-plus innings this season) your margin for error is extremely low, and you need consistently good command -- thereby suppressing your walk and homer totals -- and a heavy dose of luck on balls batted into play and, preferably, a good defense to maximize those chances of being bestowed with good fortune.
Most can attest to the fact that good fortune is no longer in abundance where Hunter is concerned. His homer rate (1.7 HR/9) has climbed to remarkable heights and his BABIP is quietly regressing towards league average, with the end result of it all being a now-replacement-level campaign in terms of his peripherals (5.36 FIP); it's a good thing for him that he can pitch rather poorly the rest of the way and still finish with a .700-plus winning percentage and low-4.00s ERA on the season, but those numbers are really quite meaningless in terms of how we should forecast his performance going forward. This is obvious to some, but I think it bears repeating.
All of which brings me back to my conflicted feelings on Hunter and idealistic tendencies. When I recently made the point that Hunter might only be a No. 4-caliber starter going forward, that wasn't intended as a knock against him, per se -- more a statement of realistic opinion. Turning him loose to fire 170-180 innings of 4.70-4.80 FIP baseball -- which falls within the performance range of a No. 4-caliber starter -- for less than $1 million annually is not a bad thing, and that, barring some change in his ability to strike people out, strikes me as the most likely outcome for Hunter over the next several years. You'd like something better, but you can live with what you have. I only hope people can remember that when he inevitably falls on harder times.
Original Story:
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/9/7/th...
