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Three reasons why the Cubs will win (or lose) the World Series
Pitcher Jake Arrieta was dominate in the 2015 postseason, but needs to up his game in 2016 to give the Cubs the extra edge in the World Series. Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Three reasons why the Cubs will win (or lose) the World Series

The previously unthinkable has finally happened: the Chicago Cubs are in the World Series.    One half of the most stubborn curse in all of sports has been alleviated, and now the Cubs are no longer the owner of the National League’s longest standing World Series dry spell (the new owner of this dubious title are the Pittsburgh Pirates, whom have been absent since 1979).   But that is only half of the job, and any part of the Cubs franchise or fan base will likely admit the lighter portion of beating the curse. There is still the matter of the 108 year World Series Championship famine, which they will now set into solving next.   All calls of destiny aside, what is likely to be the toughest –  and most prepared – challenge awaits them in the Fall Classic. The Cleveland Indians have been baseball’s most efficient team this postseason, losing only one game along the way to the Series. The Cubs have had to fight to hold on to their position, and have had to overcome a mixture of internal issues (a .222 team playoff batting average) and external foes (defeating both Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner along the way).   But is never easy to have the biggest target in the game on your back, yet the Cubs have carried it for the duration of the year to date, delivering on promise by all means along the way. Now as they prepare to attempt the greatest resurrection story in baseball history, what can either make or break their dance with destiny?   Keys to the Series   Jake Arrieta Regularly high quality starts have been one of the most essentially valuable parts of the all-around dominant outcome for the Cubs this year. And while Arrieta has not performed at the same otherworldly level he did in route to the 2015 Cy Young Award, he still did win 18 games on the year and allow the lowest batter’s average against in National League this year at .194. In order for the Cubs to keep the advantage over a strong Indians pitching staff, Arrieta has to regain that previous form, which has alluded him thus far this postseason. Arrieta has allowed 12 hits in 11 innings thus far this postseason, and the Cubs have lost both of his starts. He is a crucial part of a potential advantage for Chicago and has to be better in the Series.   Aroldis Chapman Chapman is one of the rare players in the game who can literally change the entire direction of it instantly. And while his unmatchable stuff off the mound has still been there, he has not been able to put it to use in the same dominant fashion that he did throughout the regular season. He has blown two saves, while converting three so far, with control struggles attributing to many of his issues.   Chapman has the ability to be a wipeout competitor when he is locked in. However he has not been able to gain that form yet. Of the hitters on the Indians whom have faced him in their careers, Chapman is holding them to a .185 average, with only one run scored. He has to be that version of himself again to assure the Cubs’ an advantage on the same par with his former teammate from earlier in the year, Andrew Miller.   Dexter Fowler It is not coincidence that the Cubs’ productivity towards the end of their series with the Dodgers was aligned with Fowler getting out of his postseason funk. The outfielder had a .214 postseason average before locking in and going 6-for-14 (.429) over the last three games of the NLCS, each of which the Cubs won. He also scored four runs over the three game stretch, which equaled his postseason total beforehand. Fowler is a crucial table setter that is also capable of some pop. When he is at his best, it puts every batter in the Chicago lineup in a better place. If he can carryover these tone setting ways to the World Series, the Cubs are a much, much more dangerous team.   Anthony Rizzo It’s about time. Rizzo was coming from an even worse place than Fowler was, with two hits over Chicago’s first seven postseason games. He was also yet to drive in a run and had only walked a handful of times as well. However, he broke out of this slide in a major way, getting seven hits over the final three games of the NLCS, including a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. Rizzo is the most important bat in the Cubs lineup. He protects Kris Bryant, while also setting the table for the rest of the capable bats behind him in the Cubs lineup. When he is playing like he is capable of, he is one of the best all-around talents in the game. The Cubs simply cannot win it all without him being in himself.   Three reasons why they will win it all   1. The Javier Baez factor Baez has been the breakout performer for the Cubs this postseason, carrying a .342 average and putting up five extra base hits, including a few of the walk off variety. He has hits in eight of their ten postseason games, including four multi-hit games. He has been the bridge over troubled waters and slow starts for the much of the Chicago lineup, but as they wake up and get back to regular form, having Baez still playing at the level he has been makes them nearly unfair.   Remember, this is a team that sent its entire infield to the All-Star Game, and Baez has since cracked that mixture in an everyday fashion.   2. Jon Lester and John Lackey are built for this It is far from the first rodeo into deep October for this pair of hurlers. This will be the third World Series appearance for both Lester and Lackey, whom have a total of three World Series rings between them. Experience of that type is invaluable as a whole and simply unmatchable on the Indians side of affairs.    Lester is one of the great World Series pitchers of all-time, allowing one run over 21 innings in the Fall Classic, while winning all three of his starts. Lackey, who won the World Series MVP in 2002, has won two of his four Fall Classic starts and has worked 26 innings on the grandest stage in the game overall. This will be a duo that will not be jarred by the moment, and considering they are in line to make at least three starts in the series (Lester will likely go in Game 1), they are an unavoidable issue for the Indians.
3. A flair for the dramatic No moment is too big for these Cubs. And now they have also proven that they can come from behind with the same fury that they can stay ahead. A year ago, the Cubs were made easy work by the New York Mets, being swept out of the 2015 NLCS. This season, they responded to a 2-1 deficit by outscoring the Dodgers 23-6 over the final three games of the series, and made it clear they will not go down easy.   There is something to be said for the confidence and endurance that such a victory can bring. And this is a team that has seen – and done – it all in this remarkable year they are on the verge of completing.
Three reasons why they could lose it all   1. Reverting offensively It is a credit to (in this order): their starting staff, Javier Baez and like Ernie Banks soul in the sky, that the Cubs were able to endure their sluggish start to the postseason at the plate. Cubs pitching was able to win them games as the offense found itself towards the end of the NLCS. However, Cleveland boasts a much more capable lineup than either the Giants or Dodgers, meaning that if the Cubs post another overall effort as they did in either the NLDS (.200 team avg) or NLCS (two straight shutouts), they may not find the same breathing room to get out of a prolonged skid.
2. Bullpen woes Chicago relievers were bad in the NLCS along the way in delivering ballgames to Chapman, who was not too great himself. Mike Montgomery, Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon combined for a 5.93 ERA. While they kept runners from coming across, Carl Edwards Jr and Travis Wood both had control issues. Meanwhile, Chapman allowed three hits and walked three in 4.1 innings.   The Indians are a team that can show multiple different looks across the course of a game, due to their deep and versatile lineup. Because of this, the Chicago bullpen will be more important now than at any other point in the postseason. They will need to tighten things up once again, or they could stand to fall on the sword for a season lost in its last days.   3. Can’t cut down the Tribe The Indians will likely put the pressure on a Cubs staff that is not great at limiting baserunners. The Cubs allowed the second-most stolen bases on the year, with 133 bags allowed and at a 78% success rate. Compare that against the Indians proficiency at stealing – an MLB-best 181 on an 81% success rate – and it is easy to see the massive fashion that this favors Cleveland in.   Of course Cub pitchers are exceptionally talented at keeping runners off base, and allow very few home runs to counter act that as well. But if the Indians are able to get themselves in position to turn up the jets, they will likely be running early and often, which sets up the chance for them to regular change things on the scoreboard just by putting the bat on the ball.   X-factor: Can they break the code against the back of the Indians’ pen?
The Indians relief ace and ALCS MVP has made arguably the biggest impact on a postseason of any reliever in baseball history so far. Miller has been an instant out machine over the duration any outing he has made, and will without a doubt be a huge part of the World Series as well. They may very well have to grin and bear it, considering the roll he is on, but there are other avenues to get through on the Indians’ pen. Left-handers are connecting at a higher rate this year against Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen, whom often follow Miller into games. If Fowler, Rizzo, Zobrist, Coghlan and maybe even Heyward can get to them late in a game, it would instantly snatch the balance of power into Chicago’s favor. At some point in the series, they will have to best that backend trio if they are to win it.   VERDICT
The Cubs enter the World Series as a study of extremes. They are the prohibitive favorite, which is only recently playing its best baseball together. They are a divided group in their pitching staff, and a lineup that is only recently finding itself after an MIA start to the playoffs. The odds favor them, as they have been at times both supremely talented and resilient.   The Indians are riding a wave and are entering as the hotter team with a home field upper hand. The Cubs will have to get more than a few cylinders kicking at once to continue on their season-long run. It has been an atypical type of MLB postseason, and it could continue here.
INDIANS IN SEVEN.

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