Though it may be hard to believe, Johan Santana is entering the final year of his massive six-year, $137.5 million contract, signed with the New York Mets following a February 2008 trade from the Minnesota Twins.
While there is a $25 million team option for 2014, it is clear to anyone who has watched General Manager Sandy Alderson these past three offseasons that the team will not be picking up the option, which leaves two realistic scenarios for 2013: Santana is traded to a contender in July (probably around the time Zack Wheeler is called up), or Santana finishes out the season as a Met and leaves as a free agent.
The likelihood of either scenario depends almost entirely on two factors: his health and his performance. Since health is nearly impossible to predict without a medical degree, let’s focus on the second factor.
Pitcher A: 59 IP, 2.75 ERA, 9.15 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 15:4 K:BB, .219 Opp.Avg.
Pitcher B: 57.2 IP, 7.08 ERA, 8.02 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 51:23 K:BB, .288 Opp.Avg