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Where the market stands as hot stove season heats up
Yoenis Cespedes' new contract will set the market for power bats. Kevin Liles/Getty Images

Where the market stands as hot stove season heats up

We're two weeks removed from the end of a historic and thrilling World Series, but that doesn't mean that baseball has completely cooled down. In fact, the Hot Stove is starting to really heat up, as free agent dominoes are starting to fall and trade discussions are going down as you read this. So, now is as good of a time as ever to take stock of what's been going on as far as free agency and trades are concerned, and decide whether or not you should be excited about your team's decision-making so far or if you should feel horrified about what's going on.

ATL is setting the market for innings eaters

In a bit of a twist, the Braves have set the market on mid-level pitching. This is a team that realized that they had a huge problem with starting pitching and decided to spend around $20 million on a couple of 40-year-old pitchers. The Braves signed both R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon to one-year deals, and these moves served as smart upgrades for a team that's trying to make the bridge for their pitching prospects as smooth as possible. That wasn't the case last year when they went through a whopping 16 different starting pitchers. Also, if you can name anybody outside of their intended rotation, then either you watched way too much Braves baseball last season (I'm guilty as charged) or you play in one of the deepest fantasy leagues on the internet. Either way, I'm not here to judge you, but if your team is in the market for some innings eaters then these contracts should be the model.

The price of Northern exposure

Meanwhile, the first bat to come off the free agent market was Kendrys Morales, who signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. It's clear what the Blue Jays are going for here -- they're anticipating that there's a decent chance that both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are going to be leaving the Great White North for greener pastures in 2017, and are trying to soften that blow with Morales' bat. They probably won't get the power that either Encarnacion or Bautista would provide from the DH spot, but Morales is probably going to be cheaper than either of those two, so the Blue Jays are probably subscribing to the old theory of 'You get what you pay for.' Morales will be getting $11 million regularly and taking things in isolation, it's still a slight bit of an overpay for Toronto. However, as far as the rest of the market is concerned, it appears that unless someone decides to come in and completely blow up the market then the going rate for hitters of Morales' ilk should be around the mid-teens when it comes to average annual value.

Chapman: The hundred million dollar man?

If 40-year old pitchers and 30-year old DHs are working the undercard, then it only makes sense that the main event of this year's offseason would involve a flamethrowing reliever. Aroldis Chapman is on the market, and he's not going to come cheap at all. In fact, there are rumors that his camp is shooting for a $100 million contract. Personally, I doubt that he'll get that, but there's always the possibility that a big-market team like the Dodgers or Yankees could decide that it's time to stop messing around and just go ahead and give him the nine-digit contract. If that's the case, then you can bet that the market for closers and late-inning relievers is going to get very expensive. Kenley Jansen would probably get a similar deal, and Mark Melancon would also get expensive as well. We're all waiting for the Chapman domino to fall.

The biggest bat, the biggest domino

However, there's an even bigger domino left to fall, and that's Yoenis Cespedes. There's a chance that he could end up staying with the Mets, but the top free agent of the market isn't going to come cheap, at all. Once he comes off the market, be on the lookout for players Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, and even Carlos Beltran to come off the market sooner rather than later. They won't be as expensive as Cespedes, but it's clear that whatever he gets will be the model for what other outfielders will be getting.

The rumor mill is spinning harder and faster than Sonic the Hedgehog on a malfunctioning treadmill, so you can only expect things to get more interesting as we get deeper into the offseason. Additionally, the winter meetings are only a few weeks away, and we'll probably see GMs wheel and deal their way into situations that are probably lovely at the time being but they'll eventually regret in the long run. The Diamondbacks learned this lesson last winter, so we're all waiting to see who's going to be the scapegoat this winter. On the flip side, we could also see some team make out like bandits and improve their prospects immensely. Anything's possible right now, which is the beauty of Hot Stove season.

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