Originally posted on The Southpaw  |  Last updated 12/5/11
In brief - none of us have any idea what AA is gonna do.
Full stop.
His public comments suggest: 1. a trade is much more likely than a free agent 2. he's almost certainly not going to sign either Pujols or Fielder 3. If a reporter tell you he's "in on" someone, he's almost certainly NOT. 4. if they tell you a deal is basically done, it probably is. 5. he's much more likely to move on a pitcher than a hitter (albeit someone has to play 2B
My predictions, laughable though it is to try to predict his moves: (some of these might not be finished at the meeting)
1. he'll bring in a 2B, either Prado, or a former hot young guy fallen on hard times (Beckham, Stewart, for example). also, in a potential surprise move - someone is going to draft Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 - i wouldn't be stunned if that team immediately flips him to the jays for something we can spare.
2. He'll make a significant move for a relatively big name closer. My favorite target is Houston Street, Andrew Bailey is another oft-mentioned trade possibility. It might also be some guy you didn't know was available.
3. He'll add other established relievers. Guys like Holland from KC have been mentioned and while it might not necessarily be him, it will be a guy that will make you take notice. i would not be surprised if he took a guy with a higher contract in order to get a good late inning lefty. Jeremy Affeldt would make mama happy!
4. He will work all week on a #2 starter type, but I'm not sure if a deal will get made because the prices are so high. Jair Jurrigans is madly overpriced and he's not even especially great. He might spend some money on Bedard, Harden, someone like that - risk enough to keep the term down, but good enough to play that role if healthy. otherwise, he will asses the landscape and the go out and try to land Darvish when he's posted.
in fact the one prediciton i'm most confident in - if the jays have no added a very significant SP within the next week, they WILL go all out on Darvish. They have said far too much pulbically about the need to add a pitcher not to.
Oh, and as a final thought, one caveat on Fielder: it has been pointed out on Twitter that if Fielder were to sign a five year deal (instead of the 10 years he wants) and plays well over that period, he will be a free agent again at a younger age that Pujols is listed at right now. and the odds are VERY great that he can sign a much more lucrative deal for the 5 years that follow that date then than he can now.
For instance:
Sign a 10 year deal now for, say, 22 per year AAV. $220 mil in all
OR
Sing a five year deal now for, say, $25 mil per year ($125 mil in all) and then sign one then for (lets suppose a deal similar to what the Cards offered Pujols in length) eight years at $27 mil per (a very modest raise after five years of baseball inflation) for a total of $216 million, and a total earnings over 12 years of $341 million
YES, he runs the risk of career ending injury (think Albert Belle for an example of an unexpected health issue) or a decline in production. but he doesn't lose money unless his deal five year hence is less than $95 million (which is considerably less money five years from now than it is now - see my old report about baseball inflation from a couple of years back)
Can Alex convince Boras that risk is worth taking? if he can (and it's a MASSIVE "if") then those Fielder rumors might be right. but only in that circumstance.
By the time I drag out of bed tomorrow he might well have done something big - some reporter tweeted tonight that Alex had said he "had something on the five yard line" - one presumes he did not mean his own five.
All I know is, it's the most wonderful time of the year! (unless you made the playoffs of course)


Edit to add: My only comment re Jeff Mathis is this - either he will be flipped, or he will agree to a big pay cut before the non-tender deadline, or he will be non-tendered with a much lower salary on the table for him to accept if he wants.
(the trade-off for Mathis is this - go to arbitration and get virtually no raise, say make $2 mil at best, and risk that expensive BUT non-guaranteed deal getting him cut in late March and he walks away with 1/6th that amount (which is less than the minimum salary) OR sign a guaranteed contract for , say, $900k - or risk being non-tendered and finding some other team out there who will pay him more than a million to play for them after the Jays non-tender him)
The one thing that WON'T happen, in my view, is that mathis suits up for the Jays in 2012 with a guaranteed contract paying him more than $1.5 million (and i'd be pretty surprised if it were even more than $1 million)
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Dodgers reportedly ‘in the mix’ for top left-handed relievers

Did LeBron troll the world with Ben Simmons birthday tweet?

O.J. Simpson granted parole, will be released in October

Jourdan Lewis will miss start of camp for domestic abuse trial

Vick 'truly sorry' for comments about Kaepernick

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

NFL owners pushing for Ezekiel Elliott suspension?

Report: Derrick Rose in ‘serious talks’ to join Cavs

Giants co-owner: Kaepernick is not being blackballed

Report: Lakers wanted to sign D-Wade if Bulls bought him out

Report: Bell has no plans to miss regular season games

Le'Veon Bell wants to be paid like 'a No. 1 RB and No. 2 WR'

The 'Let's show a little love for James Jones' quiz

Making an NFL GM change in the summer has its benefits

Every NFL team’s biggest question as training camps start

Box Score 7/20: Nothing but Nolan

The 'Yoan Moncada era starts now' quiz

Every MLB team's biggest need at the trade deadline

Who won the Open Championship in the year you were born?

Box Score 7/19: The shadow of the trade deadline begins to fall over baseball

The Orioles need to unwind past deals if they are going to rebuild

The 'No one is betterer than Roger Federer' quiz

BIG3 Referee Hotline Bling: Sam Hinkie is calling the shots

Box Score 7/18: Burying a glove is fine until you have a zombie glove in the outfield

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Yardbarker Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

The 'Let's show a little love for James Jones' quiz

Making an NFL GM change in the summer has its benefits

The 'Yoan Moncada era starts now' quiz

The Orioles need to unwind past deals if they are going to rebuild

BIG3 Referee Hotline Bling: Sam Hinkie is calling the shots

The 'No one is betterer than Roger Federer' quiz

The 'Youth in baseball is cyclical' quiz

The unexpected rise of the Connecticut Sun

Getaway Day: Class is back in session

The 'Safeties in numbers' quiz

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker