The textbook containing the instructions of how to ruin a pitcher is in the possession of the New York Yankees. They aren’t the only organization to ruin a pitcher, but they have achieved just that with 25 year old Joba Chamberlain. He came up with so much promise and dominated so quickly. The Yankees wanted the immediate fix and left him in the bullpen. But, their plan was to always make him a starting pitcher. They did that in 2009, sort of. Chamberlain had the infamous “Joba Rules” placed on him which limited his innings total, a very important concept. The problem was that the Yankees administered the program in such a way that he became a freak show, a target for the media, and a lame punchline for the bloggers. The problem could be that he hurt himself during a start in Texas a couple of years ago. Most importantly, his performance declined because of their plan. After losing last season’s fifth starter Spring Training battle to Phil Hughes, Chamberlain was to be the primary setup man to Mariano Rivera.
Except, the plan didn’t work out.
Chamberlain got off to a 1-4 start in his first 39 games. He pitched to a 5.79 ERA and allowed 42 hits in 37.1 innings. He did strikeout 40 batters, but he walked 14 and opposing hitters batted .282/.341/.389 against him. As frustrating as Chamberlain may be for some Yankees fans and personnel, his poor first half wasn’t entirely his fault. His BABIP was an unlucky .370, a mark that is unsustainable over the long haul. Chamberlain saw that balance out in the second half as his BABIP fell to .270 His overall .342 mark is still above average, but the second half yielded better results. In 34 second half games, he posted a 2-0 record with a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings. He allowed 29 hits, 8 walks, and struck out 37 batters. That second half was more like the pitcher the Yankees envisioned when he burst on the scene in 2007.
His overall numbers—3-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 73 games—may not be anything more than average, but considering he has changed his role three times in a four year career, there are enough signs to still believe in the pitcher who most New Yorkers are ready to take to the airport. His 2.98 FIP does illustrate he pitched better than his ERA would indicate. His 94.6 MPH average on his fastball still shows that above average stuff. Batters swung and missed on 12.6 percent of all pitches thrown in the strike zone. The stuff and the ability to get Major League hitters out are still there. It is a matter of Chamberlain getting a full chance at whatever role he is given. Once he struggled last season, he was lifted from the primary setup duties. The Yankees traded for Kerry Wood at the trade deadline, which pushed Chamberlain back on the depth chart. He was never given a chance to be a regular starter. Phil Hughes had an innings limit, but the Yankees handled him differently, showing that they learned from their gross mishandling of Chamberlain.
With the signing of Rafael Soriano, the Yankees are no longer in need of a setup man. With David Robertson and Pedro Feliciano, they no longer need late inning relievers. But, with the void left by the Andy Pettitte, the Yankees are in need of another starting pitcher. Thus far, Brian Cashman has stated that Chamberlain will not be given another chance at the rotation despite having castoffs Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon competing for two rotation spots. He won’t be given another chance despite the fact that his role looks to be in the sixth or seventh inning. Thus far, the Yankees are continuing to ruin a once promising career.
Chamberlain is 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA as a starter. Will the Yankees find better in 2011?
The real start to the ruination of his career came in 2008 when the Yankees stretched Chamberlain out at the Major League level in order to return him to the rotation. His outings had a spring training feel. They continued to be wrong when they enacted an innings plan that saw Chamberlain have to pitch two innings per start. That plan came off the heels of Chamberlain’s best stretch of the season. The next mistake came last season when Chamberlain lost the rotation spot to Phil Hughes. The Yankees should’ve sent Chamberlain to the Minor Leagues to refine his work as a starter. They should’ve let him develop. He needed to learn how to be a starter; he needed to learn how to prepare to be a starter. Starting pitchers are the most valuable commodities a team can have. The Yankees decided to waste one by sending him to the bullpen. Their final mistake may be their stubbornness. They have a rotation opening. Only stubbornness can prevent a team from making the obvious choice to put a pitcher where he belongs and where he has the most value. Only stubbornness can stop a team from at least trying.
Although Chamberlain has been yo-yoed from the bullpen to the rotation, and back, he can still return to being a high potential starting pitcher even if the Yankees are correct that his Texas injury cost him some of his stuff. He doesn’t have to look any further than in his own division. Brandon Morrow, the 26 year old starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, has traveled down Chamberlain’s path. As a 22 year old, Morrow appeared in 60 games as a rookie reliever for the Seattle Mariners. He struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings while posting a 4.12 ERA, 8 H/9, and 7.1 BB/9. The results weren’t pretty, especially the walk total, but Morrow had the stuff to be an elite strikeout pitcher. The Mariners just had to figure out his role. In 2008, Morrow began the year in the bullpen as the Mariners were favored to win their division and thought that they would be best served with Morrow in the bullpen rather than in the Minor Leagues building his innings.
The Mariners had a terrible, injury plagued season. Morrow did save 10 games and did strikeout 10.4 batters per nine innings. But, the Mariners decided that Morrow would be a better value as a starting pitcher. After heading to the Minors, he started five games. Morrow started another 10 games in 2009 before injuries and personnel decisions put him back in the bullpen. He pitched to a then career high 4.39 ERA while striking out a career low 8.4 batters per nine innings. Morrow was in the same position that Chamberlain is in now. Morrow was once viewed as the future number two pitcher behind Felix Hernandez. But, due to the yo-yo and the uneven results, the Mariners traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for middle reliever Brandon League. The potential number two pitcher was shipped out for a middle reliever. While everyone was caught up in Mariner mania at the time, there is no denying that the Mariners made a terrible trade.
The Blue Jays knew what they were getting: a raw starting pitcher with talent. Morrow was a starter in Spring Training and made the club. He made just 26 starts because the Blue Jays were cognizant of his innings total. Rather than shorten his outings, they simply skipped a couple of turns and then shut him down in September. The overall results were solid. He posted a 10-7 record with a 4.49 ERA in 146.1 innings. He allowed 136 hits, 11 homeruns, 66 walks, and struck out 178 batters. Heading into the 2011 season, he will likely be monitored again, but he probably will make 28-30 starts. He isn’t a perfect pitcher as he struggles with walks, but he is a rare starting pitcher who can average over 10 strikeouts per nine innings on a regular basis. Morrow is coming off of a solid first full season as a starter that had some spectacular moments mixed in. He is entering his new season with that in the bank, just as Chamberlain should’ve last season. But, the Yankees didn’t look towards this season when it was a possibility that a starter or two would be needed. Now, they have to decide.
Chamberlain still has the tools to be a good starter. He could be this season’s Brandon Morrow. If the Yankees would’ve allow him to earn the job in Spring Training and then just let him pitch, perhaps he can finally begin to meld results with potential. The only rational reason to not allow Chamberlain the chance to become a starter is if the Yankees believe he simply can’t be a reliable starter. But, he was just that when they allowed him to be in 2009. He even showed flashes of dominance at points, just like Morrow did this season. In July of 2009, Chamberlain was 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 5 starts. That followed up a 2-1 June with a 3.79 ERA in 6 starts. It wasn’t until the Yankees started to limit his outings did Chamberlain begin to fail. The idea that Chamberlain can’t be a quality starter isn’t based on reality. He’s done it. He wasn’t an ace, but few young pitchers instantly become aces. He was, however, a solid pitcher who showed he could dominate at times and was showing steady improvement. The Yankees tossed that all away, just like the Mariners did with Morrow. Now, they have one last chance before they make the same mistake Seattle did with Morrow. The Yankees still have their asset.
Joba Chamberlain will always be a polarizing figure in New York. He came up with such brilliance that the expectations were blasted beyond reality. In some ways, he will always be viewed as a failure in New York. But, the talent still suggests starting pitcher. It still suggests number two or three starter. It still suggests a potential ace with the right circumstances and maturity. The Yankees can still develop that this season if they just give him the ball and allow him to grow and nurture him as they did with Phil Hughes. It is all still a possibility. Chamberlain can duplicate Morrow’s 2010 season if given the opportunity.
That may not be an ace, but it would give the Yankees something they don’t have as they enter spring training—a solidly reliable fourth starter. While the best the Yankees can hope for is league average from their candidates, Chamberlain at least offers the promise of something more. Even if he fails to mature, consider his career record as a starter who was improperly handled. In 221.2 career innings as a starter, he has allowed 227 hits, 101 walks, while striking out 207 batters. He has compiled a 4.18 ERA and a 1.480 WHIP along with his 12-7 record. Can the Yankees hope for anything better from either Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon?
If the Yankees can’t give him that opportunity, a trade is in the best interest of his career. Perhaps in a new place, Chamberlain can realize his potential, much like Morrow did in Toronto. The solution to the Yankees’ rotation is already on their roster. Now, they just have to swallow some pride, admit some mistakes, and make the commitment. If they can’t someone else will. That speaks volumes to Chamberlain’s potential. It would also speak volumes to the Yankees’ stubbornness and not admitting a mistake.
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http://fullcountpitch.com/2011/03/03/...
