Come hell or high water, the
Ultimate Fighting Championship will put up a
championship belt on a pay-per-view for any card not containing a
Diaz or McGregor. The vacant light heavyweight throne will be
claimed on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where there is
a heavy favorite with a clear and distinct path to victory. The
UFC 282 edition of Prime Picks turns the focus on that
belt-laden affair, weighs in a little on the recent betting
scandal, shines a light on a heavy-handed Philadelphian and strings
together an all-favorite parlay that should pay out handsomely.
STRAIGHT UP CASH
Truth be told, what appears to be the best lock of the fight card
is actually another tilt on the main draw, but these top breakdowns
need the biggest fights in order to sizzle. When diving into this
UFC 282 main event, Ankalaev currently clocks in at -280, which is
fair considering the strategy he can and likely will employ to get
his hand raised. There is a chance the Russian settles instead for
top control to slow down the Polish powerhouse
Jan
Blachowicz, tasting those heavy hands early and taking the path
of least resistance. This would result in not only a drag of a
25-minute affair, but it would break up this knockout-promised
line. Given that Ankalaev has never even attempted a submission in
his entire Octagon tenure and holds a UFC knockout rate above 50%,
the play on him getting it done with his striking at modest plus
money is exceptionally enticing.
Before laying waste to the ultra-durable
Anthony
Smith in July, Ankalaev had strung together three
tough-to-watch decision wins: a five-round grinder against
Thiago
Santos, another in which he performed unauthorized plastic
surgery on
Volkan
Oezdemir’s eyebrow and a third where he leaned on superior
wrestling to shut down the all-offense
Nikita
Krylov. Blachowicz’s takedown defense is far from impregnable,
and if a 40-year-old
Glover
Teixeira can ground him on his way to an easy submission, the
Dagestan native could give him fits. In addition to this ability to
plant the former champ on his backside when he sees fit, the very
threat of Ankalaev’s takedown can halt Blachowicz from committing
on strikes. Based on his appearance and place of origin, Ankalaev
may be unfairly hailed as being solely a wrestler; his striking is
far more than simply a means to an end like other wrestle-heavy
competitors, and his kicking game is vastly underrated.
To say Blachowicz has a puncher’s chance is unfair to his abilities
and achievements thus far inside the Octagon. However, throughout
his time on the roster, most of those to beat him have done so by
putting him on his back. The former champ from Cieszyn, Poland,
will turn 40 in a little over two months, and while power is the
last thing to go, timing and speed take serious hits when fighters
advance to that age. While fellow elder statesman Teixeira proved
the old lions can still win gold—he claimed the belt by topping a
not-that-youthful Blachowicz—the clock is loudly ticking. An
unexpected X-factor would be if Blachowicz decides to utilize his
own offensive wrestling, as very few have taken the Russian down
and even fewer have held him there. If an upset is to come, it
would be when “Polish Power” rears its head in the early rounds,
and a stoppage from Blachowicz in the alternative at +380 could be
worth a whiff if one expects Ankalaev to fall. It might be ugly for
a while, but Ankalaev putting Blachowicz out with strikes is a
prime play when he has five rounds to do so.
Straight Up Pass
Dipping down to the early prelims, a bout currently considered a
pick’em is one that savvy bettors may be best off avoiding.
Coinflip matches can be enticing, especially this one, where Brown
is taking on a
Dana White’s Contender Series pickup making his
UFC debut at the age of 35. This is currently the closest matchup
on the lines by a fair margin, with the nearest being
Ilia
Topuria coming in anywhere from -135 to -150 depending on the
book. Brown’s finishes have largely dried up since moving up to the
big leagues, beyond his contract-winning submission of Dylan
Lockhard in 2019, as the all-around skill of his opponents trends
upward. While
Erik Silva
will gladly indulge in the grappling exchange that is sure to come
in their affair, the reason for skipping a pick on this fight rests
heavily in the intangibles.
As recently as
Friday, a few days before fight week, Brown praised his
training partners at Glory MMA. The Arkansas native splits his
camps between Glory MMA and Westside MMA, with the latter being in
his home state and helmed by UFC veteran
Roli
Delgado. His last appearance in June came equipped with coach
James
Krause in his corner, and he spent significant time training
with the man leading up to this fight with Silva. With Krause no
longer in his corner because of his Nevada-based suspension and
subsequent indefinite ban from UFC events due to the gambling
scandal that is still developing, Brown finds himself down a chief
corner just a week prior to his fight. Teammate
Marcelo
Rojo did not fare well when down a key advisor, and this is the
kind of unwelcome distraction that throws fighters completely off
their game. Venezuela’s Silva has shown himself to be a superior
force who will take the major leagues by storm, so instead of
flirting with a line on either fighter, it might be wise to switch
to greener pastures.
DOG WILL HUNT
At +210,
Jared
Gordon very nearly claimed the spot as the underdog to watch,
but his proclivity for getting finished in defeat coupled with
Paddy
Pimblett’s submission savvy make that upset call a little less
desirable. Instead, we switch to a pair of struggling heavyweights
in Daukaus and
Jairzinho
Rozenstruik, neither of whom have earned a win in over a year.
Two-fight skids for both men leave them relegated to a prelim
position on this pay-per-view, but their competition has been
rock-solid. Daukaus was put out by
Derrick
Lewis and
Curtis
Blaydes, while Rozenstruik also fell short against Blaydes and
got plunked by
Alexander
Volkov. The big men come in with identical knockout rates of
92%, and given their respective momentum or lack thereof, this
should be closer to even money. That is where a Daukaus play
shines.
Daukaus wowed with his hand speed as he slimmed down his figure,
switching to become a full-time fighter instead of a part-timer who
also served as a police officer in Philadelphia. Four straight
knockouts, with none coming any later than 6:23 of a fight, placed
him as a person of interest, only for Lewis and Blaydes to shut him
down hard within the last year. Suriname’s Rozenstruik undoubtedly
has the power to do the exact same, but his hesitance on pulling
the trigger has found him losing fights in which he otherwise
should have been firmly in the driver’s seat. Rozenstruik finds
himself watching fights go by when he should at the very least be
countering, and a quicker Daukaus could beat him to the punch and
capitalize on openings and lulls in action. Already an underdog, it
is not necessary to dig down to call for a Daukaus knockout,
although at +210 it is not objectionable.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION
There will soon come a time when Pimblett hits his hard ceiling in
the UFC, as “The Baddy” slowly works his way up the lightweight
ladder while becoming something of a celebrity. None of his three
outings thus far—
Luigi
Vendramini,
Rodrigo
Vargas and
Jordan
Leavitt—have seen Pimblett come out unscathed, and he has had
his bell rung on multiple occasions. Thankfully for the Liverpool,
England, representative, the aforementioned Gordon is not a
lights-out power puncher. While “Flash” puts up solid striking
totals when he performs, his blows have not downed a single
opponent thus far in the Octagon. The men to put Gordon away are
generally highly regarded, so it is not a case of his falling at
the first sign of adversity. He could turn things around in the
later rounds should Pimblett gas himself out hunting for a finish,
but the Brit as one leg in an all-favorite parlay is a more
reasonable selection.
Neither Ankalaev at -280 nor Pimblett at -250 are individually
juicy, as they are fair expectations on how those fights will play
out. Therefore, the “People’s Straight Up Cash” pick is du Plessis,
who will soon rise to the occasion and add another loss on the
growing pile for
Darren Till.
While South Africa’s du Plessis comes out like his hair is on fire,
Till can sit back and wait for his right opening as he loads up on
a big left hand. This hesitance has cost Till in big fights, while
he has done just enough to sneak out decisions over the likes of
Kelvin
Gastelum and
Stephen
Thompson. Du Plessis will not let him coast or play Till’s game
and instead will force the former welterweight title challenger to
fight off his back foot and play defense. The Liverpudlian may be a
more polished striker on paper, but that goes out the window when
he squares off against a high-volume berserker who will push the
pace for all three rounds.
Already a fairly large lightweight with an impressive slate of
opposition thus far,
Alexander
Hernandez is making the unexpected move down in weight to greet
Quarantillo. Hernandez has his hands certainly full in this
pairing. “The Great Ape” has flagged in fights that go later, with
his Round 1 bursts getting him into danger when the man across the
cage from him does not go away. Quarantillo, whose
strikes landed per minute average exceeds every other
featherweight in company history—including
Max
Holloway—will be right there in front of him throwing hands to
the bitter end. The back-and-forth battles for Quarantillo have
gotten him into trouble against willing brawlers, and Hernandez
will welcome a firefight for a time. However, the work rate of
Quarantillo does not fall off after the 10-minute mark, and he
should be able to comfortably win the last two rounds or even
procure a late stoppage to start this accumulator off well.