The
Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will
take in some sunshine in Orlando, Florida, which hosts the last
non-Las Vegas attraction of 2022—one where at least one victor may
claim he wants to go to Disney World afterward. Jam packed with a
record-tying 15 fights, there is undoubtedly a little something for
everyone on the bill. The UFC on ESPN 42 edition of Prime Picks is
practically all about old lions pulling off vintage performances
against perfect opponents, while also touching on an obvious play
between two burly brawlers.
Our unintentional theme this week is one of aging veterans still
showing enough life to remain competitively viable. Thompson has
been largely written off for quite some time, only to pop back up
and surprise plenty of onlookers when putting on a show. Still, a
karate-based style like that of “Wonderboy”—one heavily reliant on
movement and timing—rarely ages well. In a smidge over two months,
Thompson will turn 40, but the South Carolinian still wants to stay
relevant and in the hunt for a championship. While powerful
grapplers
Gilbert
Burns and
Belal
Muhammad ruined his 2021 campaign, Thompson is returning after
nearly a year off to face a fellow striker. This matchup is one
that Thompson has feasted on historically, and the wheels do not
appear completely off of the bus. There is value in “Wonderboy” at
plus money against
Kevin
Holland.
Holland will come in sporting several natural advantages outside of
the fact that he is in his competitive prime and Thompson appears
to be in the twilight of his career. Holland measures six inches
longer in the arms, and if leg reach were regularly measured, he
may have Thompson beat there, as well. “Wonderboy” remains one of
the most skillful strikers in the sport to properly utilize range,
but he is going to experience something he has not yet encountered
inside the Octagon: someone far longer than himself.
Vicente
Luque held a slightly greater wingspan, but Thompson never
struggled with it. If Holland can stay at the tail end of his fists
and feet, he could outdistance the distance fighter.
Beyond a
head-scratching hometown decision for
Darren Till
in Liverpool, England, in 2018, striker-versus-striker contests
involving Thompson trend his way. Thompson had battered
Anthony
Pettis on the feet for two rounds before “Showtime” pulled off
the one-in-a-million Superman punch off the cage wall. Younger,
surging opponents like Luque and
Geoff Neal
were staved off and beaten to the punch; and Thompson did not fall
victim to the fifth-round blitz that those Till and
Tyron
Woodley put on him when he faced Neal less than two years ago.
While Holland’s individual strikes may have more of an impact,
landing cleanly on Thompson is still another story, even as the
latter approaches the age of 40. Unless Holland mixes in ample
wrestling to throw Thompson off his game, this standup affair has
all the makings of an upset, playing out across five rounds while
Jack Black cheers for “Wonderboy” on the sidelines.
Neither combatant in this heavyweight slugfest exceeds the age of
30, making them the young guns in this breakdown. While other
narrower options like “Fight Doesn’t Start Round 2” see lower minus
odds, they may not be available in most sportsbooks. A simple
under, which expects that the fight will not reach 7:30—or 2:30 of
the second round—is perhaps the best and safest option given the
surrounding upset central picks. Put simply, “fist go boop” is
likely the best way to approach this big man slobberknocker, as
Pavlovich and Tuivasa contain one-shot, fight-ending power that can
and almost certainly will switch off someone’s lights. A clean
knockout, not simply one ruled by TKO, is very much in play.
When stacking up the resumes of the two fighters, the Russian posts
an 81% knockout rate, with all 13 of his finishes coming in the
first round. On the other hand, Tuivasa also has performed 13
knockouts without a submission to his credit, and this accounts for
a stoppage rate of 93%. The boisterous Aussie has earned a pair of
knockouts outside the opening frame, but none of those exceeded
2:30 of Round 2. While Tuivasa has never before lost any faster
than exactly 7:30 of a fight, Pavlovich’s only career defeat came
in Round 1 against
Alistair
Overeem. Chins will be tested, checked and likely cracked. If
an available line crops up allowing for a knockout in this fight,
regardless of the winner, that is also a worthwhile endeavor; some
props for “Fight Ends by Knockout” are made available for certain
matches.
The book has been written on Guida for years. “The Carpenter” has a
very specific style and approach to combat, and he rarely varies
from that gameplan. If a fighter can catch him early in a scramble,
he is extremely vulnerable against dry submissions. A loss would
place the venerable vet into .500 territory inside the Octagon, and
Guida will turn 41 in a week. Still,
Scott
Holtzman is no spring chicken, although he has suffered
exponentially less damage with a career less than a third as active
as Guida. Holtzman has needed nearly a year and a half to recover
from his previous loss, with a bad April 2021 knockout to
Mateusz
Gamrot prompting a lengthy period on the shelf. In that same
stretch, Guida has fought three times, and activity could be an
intangible worth leaning towards the moderately older former
Strikeforce champion.
Several of the opponents who have overcome Holtzman of late have
done so by putting “Hot Sauce” on his back. While not quite the
same takedown machine he was in the days of old, Guida still
maintains the chops to chain wrestle and get an opponent down—or at
least force a scramble to make the two hit the ground. Guida is
more hittable than he used to be, but his frantic movement still
flusters opponents, and he has not slowed when reaching deep
waters. The bottom has not yet fallen out for Guida, and Holtzman
has not proven to be the kind of striker who forces his opponent’s
corner to bring out smelling salts. Additionally, the 39-year-old
is not a typically opportunistic finisher, so he may have to push
Guida around for three rounds and maintain smothering top position
for a least two of them to get a win. “Fight Goes to Decision” at
-180 is also a possible option if one does not have the same faith
in Guida but does not entirely rule him out.
This pairing is admittedly rough sledding for “The Damage,” who is
on the wrong side of his 30s against an opponent in
Jonathan
Pearce who appears to be a younger, fresher and less shopworn
version of himself. Having become somewhat of a sentimental
favorite known for taking extreme amounts of punishment only to
flip a switch and turn the tables on opponents, this approach
typically does not bode well for lengthier careers. Still, Elkins,
who entered the UFC in 2010, has won three of his last four fights,
with two of those coming inside the distance. His gritty, grinding
nature is still very much in play as he ages, and his cardio can
still play a factor in the later rounds. In what might seem more of
a flier than an outright selection—as well as the expectation that
Pearce should not be a roughly -500 favorite against anyone on the
roster—Elkins at major plus money cannot be simply skipped
over.
Other than a nasty jump knee with which he put down
Noe
Quintanilla in his pro debut and a leaping standing-to-ground
right hand on
Jacob
Rosales to earn a UFC contract, Pearce’s stopping ability is
more that of attrition than one-hitter quitter nature. With
21
takedowns in his four UFC victories, “JSP” may try to grind the
grinder. Scrambles are sure to come, but the crafty veteran may be
able to teach the youngster a thing or two on the mat after
Pearce’s energy dwindles. The momentum could swing mightily, and
Elkins getting it done yet again is not totally out of the
question. If one wishes a safer fourth play on another fight on the
billing, take
Rafael dos
Anjos Wins by Decision at -115. Prime Picks goes big or goes
home, and Elkins’ constant ability to pull a rabbit out of a hat as
his foes flag is not so much of a bug as it is a feature. When the
larger Pearce fades, Elkins can kick things into high gear.