Originally posted on hov-mma  |  Last updated 9/4/13
The UFC has another Fight Night to kick off their new highly anticipated season of TUF on Wednesday night. There are no less than eleven potential action packed fights on tap coming to you live from Brazil. Here is my take on how they will go down. Yuri Villefort (6-2) vs Sean Spencer (9-2) There is a simple rule when picking fights for the Brazilian cards with Brazilian fighters. Always go with the Brazilian in Brazil. There are exception's, but they happen when the opponent is special. So far Spencer does not have that kind of win on his resume and he will not get it tonight. Villefort is on a two fight losing streak and a loss here will probably mean he will be cut from the UFC. There is little chance he will let that happen in his home country. Villefort via triangle choke in the 2nd rd. Keith Wisniewski (28-13-1) vs Ivan Jorge (24-3) With 28 submission victories between them look for a standup battle between these two grapplers. Neither has devastating one punch knockout power, so this one will probably go to the judges. Look for Jorge to do just enough to take home the UD win. Jorge via UD 3 rds. Joao Zeferino (13-5) vs Elias Silverio (8-0) Zeferino lost his UFC debut to Rafael Natal in May and now he gets to greet the undefeated Silverio into the UFC. Now normally with two Brazilians fighting in Brazil you go with the one with UFC experience, but this is one of the exceptions to that rule. Silverio has spent most of his career fighting for Jungle Fight which is run by Wallid Ismail and their fighters always come to fight. Look for Silverio to make a golden debut inside of the octagon with a 1st round KO. Silverio via KO by knees in 1st rd. Lucas Martins (12-1) vs Junior Hernandez (8-4) This is an easy one as Hernandez is making his UFC debut in Brazil so this will not go well for him. Hernandez will be the latest victim of the dreaded UFC adrenaline dump, this will slow him down just a tick. That will leave him open for the TKO by ground and pound. Martins will drop him with a right hook and then finish him on the ground. Martins via TKO on the ground 3rd rd. Felip Arantes (15-4-1, 2NC) vs Kevin Souza (13-3) This one will be a banger. Souza is more of the knockout specialist but Arantes has faced the better competition. Again, Souza is another Jungle Fight veteran, and that organization emphasizes finishers. With his 12 KO's Souza has proven his ability to deliver the knockout. Both fighters are comfortable on their feet. I like Souza in his debut to use his height and length to score the knockout win. Souza via KO. Marcos Vinicius (20-5) vs Ali Bagautinov (10-2) This one could be a strong contender for FOTN and it kicks off the main card. Bagautinov is making his UFC debut and normally this would make it easy to pick Vinicius. Fighters from Russia are immune to the octagon jitters and he will not be thrown by the hostile crowd. The two fighters are both strong, well rounded battlers. Vinicius has the stronger submission background, while Bagautinov has the much better one-punch knockout power. At some point late in the second round or early in the third he catches Vinicius and puts him to sleep. Bagautinov via KO in the early 3rd rd. Rafael Natal (16-4-1) vs Tor Troeng (16-4-1) Matching records here and both are submission oriented as fighters. This is another even fight with some differences in the fighting styles. They both are looking to grapple and Natal has a slight edge in this area. He can submit Troeng, not sure if Troeng can do the same to him. Troeng is a little better in the standup. Look for Natal to be the aggressor and try to get the fight to the ground. If Troeng can keep the fight standing and control the distance he has a chance. He might just be comfortable enough in his grappling to dance with Natal in this area and that will be his mistake. I like Natal to pull off the submission win late in the first round. Natal via RNC in the 1st rd. Francisco Trinaldo (13-2) vs Piotr Hallmann (13-1) This is another UFC debuting fighter in Hallmann facing a tough Brazilian. Hallmann is a powerful aggressive fighter and that plays right into Trinaldo's strengths. Trinaldo is tricky with his submissions and he is deceptively strong. Everything about him is effectively awkward. He wreaks havoc with your timing. Just when you think you have it down he shoots for the takedown. You are set to defend the takedown and he punches you in the face with a hard straight left hand. In his last fight he was able to submit Mike Rio from the half-guard which is almost never done inside of the octagon. Hallmann has never been submitted so this should be a grappling clinic. I like Trinaldo to catch Hallman in a choke in the early part of round three. Trinaldo via choke submission in the 3rd rd. Joseph Benavidez (18-3) vs Jussier Formiga (15-2) This could be a great back and forth war between two top contenders. Formiga is a legitimate top five ranked flyweight the problem is the guy he is facing is the number one contender and he is that much better right now. He has only lost to Dominick Cruz up at bantamweight and the current flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson in a close SD. Right now Team Alpha Male is on a roll and Benavidez will not slow it down. He is much better in the standup and is fine playing on the ground. This is a horrible match up for Formiga, but he has a lot of heart and is tough. He will battle right up to the point that Benavidez catches him with a body kick. From there he will finish the fight on the ground for the TKO win in the third. Benavidez via TKO in the 3rd rd. Yushin Okami (30-7) vs Ronaldo Souza (18-3 and 1 NC) Here is matchup between two of the top middleweights. An impressive win by either fighter would put them in line for a title shot. This will be the FOTN for the grapplers. Okami has never been submitted, Souza is one of the best submission artists in MMA, and could be the best in the middleweight division. When it comes to the standup Okami has a slight advantage and that will be the difference in this fight. He will be able to neutralize Souza's grappling and he will do enough in the standup to get the three UD win. Okami via UD 3 rds. Glover Teixeria (21-2) vs Ryan Bader (16-3) The main event between Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeria will be Teixeria's toughest test to date. This is not Teixeria's fault as he has had many of the fighters ahead of him turning down fights with him. Teixeria has put himself in a position that one or two more wins by stoppages, and he will be fighting for the title. His first chance is a difficult task in Bader who was not one of the fighters ducking him. Bader is tough, has a strong wrestling base, hits hard and has faced some of the best light heavyweights in the UFC. He is the type of fighter that makes the fight ugly and he has a shot in this fight especially if he can catch Teixeria early. This will be Teixeria's first main event. He's returning to Brazil where there will be a lot of pressure on him in this fight. It will be an excellent chance to see if he is ready for the bright lights. I think he is and he gets the KO win in this fight. He will catch Bader with a spinning back kick in the third round for the win. Bader via KO in the 3rd rd. It will be an exciting night of fights on FOX Sports 1 followed by the premier of TUF 18. Enjoy it.
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