Well, it’s 2013 and that can mean only one thing, it’s time for me to dominate my partner in crime, Dave Reno picking fights. In this round, we will be making our UFC on FX 7 picks, and one of us will be bragging next week, while the other will be alone, feeling shamed. Follow us at @hovmma to see who will be bragging next week. PS: It’ll be me.
Preliminary Card (Facebook - 5:35 pm et)
CJ Keith vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Dan Rose: Ok, not much to say here, going with Francisco Trinaldo, because of the word Francisco…as in San Francisco 49ers. Don’t want to jinx the boys in Hotlanta Sunday. Also, Trinaldo has been in with better competition, and looked better in his last outing in the Octagon than CJ Keith did.
Dave Reno: Leave it to Rosey to toss in a 49ers reference. Just for that, and for that only, I'll take C.J. Keith. I also think it's pretty sweet that he doesn't have a Wiki page or Sherdog profile photo. Keith via decision.
Preliminary Card (Fuel TV - 6:00 pm et)
Ildemar “Marajo” Alcantara vs. Wagner Prado
Rose: “Marajo” is on a seven fight win streak, and has only gone the distance once in those seven contests. Wagner Prado has fought Phil Davis twice, the first time he was thumbed in the eye for a no contest, the second time he was submitted. Both will be fighting at home in Brazil and this one will end via TKO. Flip a coin, give me Alcantara.
Reno: Prado has finally moved on from the very frustrating Phil Davis portion of his UFC career and has been sent down to the lower portion of the undercard on a hometown card. Don't expect him to be happy about it. Prado will make the statement he should've made the first time around if Davis hand't poked him in the eye. Prado via TKO.
Iuri Alcantara vs. Pedro Nobre
Rose: Ok, first things first, there is but one Pedro “The Rock” in MMA, and it’s Rizzo, not Nobre. For that reason alone, I will be picking against him. Iuri Alcantara wins by Armbar. Don’t take someone’s nickname, just don’t. Don’t.
Reno: Alcantara's 13-fight win streak was ended in Brazil last summer by the very frustrating Harcan Dias. Nobre could care less. The man is a killer and has been on a tear since being literally knocked out of the TUF Brazil Season 1 house. The problem is that Nobre is entering this one on short notice replacing the injured George Roop. I'll take the safe pick here - Alcantara via a hard fought decision.
Edson Barboza vs. Lucas Martins
Rose: Edson Barboza is a beast. His highlight reel KO of Terry Etim will forever be the best KO I’ve ever seen. He lost in his last outing to Jamie Varner, and if he’s not careful, he could easily lose this fight as well. Lucas Martins is a standup monster from Chute Boxe, and he can bring it. He has awesome knees, and punching power in both hands. He fights like Wand did back in the day, and for that reason, I’m going for the upset here. Lucas Martins wins by KO.
Reno: Jamie Varner looked like he was shot out of a cannon last May when he TKO'd Edson Barboza. Barboza had already locked up KO of the Year honors on the UFC's first card of the year but since then we haven't heard much from him. Varner showed us how you beat Edson, you get inside and you give him hell. Barboza loves nothing more than to take away your mobility by putting on his own littler personal leg kick fiesta for you. I don't believe Martins can duplicate with Varner did. He won't find Barboza on this night - Barboza via TKO.
Digeo Nunes vs. Nik Lentz
Rose: This is a clash of tough fighters who both need this win pretty badly. I think Diego Nunes is by and large an underrated fighter by most. I expect him to bring his well rounded game and use his speed advantage to control the action and grind out a tough win over “The Carny” by decision.
Reno: Nunes has yet to live up to the hype that followed him into his UFC debut against against Michael Thomas Brown in early 2011. He's gone win, loss, win, loss win, and now....he'll lose to the toughest damn Carny in America. What Lentz couldn't do against guys like Bocek and Dunham at 155 he'll do to guys like Nunes and whomever else wants some at 145. Lentz via humpfest 2013.
Ronny Markes vs. Andrew Craig
Rose: These are two tough fighters who bring a combined 21-1 record into the Octagon. I think Markes is perhaps the more explosive of the two, but I think Craig has the wrestling advantage and the strength advantage. This could be a fun fight, but in the end I see Andrew Craig moving to 9-0 as a pro, winning by Unanimous Decision.
Reno: I like this kid Craig a lot, that comeback against Natal on Facebook last July made me jump out of my seat. I just don't see him pulling something like that off again this time around against a guy like Markes who will keep it standing and light Craig up for the duration of the fight until the eventual finsih. Markes via TKO.
Milton Vieira vs. Godofredo Castro
Rose: In Castro you have the runner up in the Ultimate Fighter Brazil. He’s looking to make a splash in the UFC. He’s 8-1 as a professional and brings to the Octagon a slick submission game. Milton Vieira also is schooled in submissions, but has been up and down in his career. This fight could go either way, but likely, if Castro fights smart, he wins. I’m going to pick Castro by a second round submission.
Reno: Gimme Castro. All day. Every day. Twice on Saturday.
Main Card (FX - 9 pm et)
Thiago Tavares vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
Rose: Ok, Khabib, or K-Dov as I call him, is a very talented and undefeated Russian who brings a record of 18-0 into this fight. Fighting for the third time in the UFC, a win here over the seasoned Tavares and K-Dov is on his way. Tavares is a submission specialist who has won two in a row in the UFC and won’t just fall down and tap because Khabib wants him to. If this fight goes to the mat, it could get dicey for Nurmagomedov. I suspect that this will be a huge fight for Khabib and will usher him into the top of the Lightweight division. I’m going with K-Dov by KO in round 2.
Reno: The Russians are on fire lately. With the recent influx of talent to Bellator and the unforgettable UFC debut of Rustam Khabilov late last year, it's hard to bet against an 18-0 Khabib 'I'm not gonna call this guy K-Dov' Nurmagomedov. If Nurmagomedov can avoid the slick submission game of Tavares I don't see this fight being a problem for him. He can out muscle him wherever this fight goes, chalk up another W for K-Dov. Wow, that really does make life a lot easier actually.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Ben Rothwell
Rose: I can’t even think about Gonzaga without hearing the words, “Bad Banana” in my head. His how to peel a banana video on youtube was classic. Ben Rothwell on the other hand, has reached the point in his career where he goes, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win….so this fight would clearly be a loss. You don’t fight statistics like those. Rothwell, who at one point looked poised to make a run in the Heavyweight division, now looks like he’s content to jog it out until the finish line. Gonzaga wins this by decision in what will be a slow, dull, subpar fight.
Reno: Remember when Big Ben went on that impressive 9-fight win streak in the IFL ? Me neither. Rothwell was once thought to be a potential, gasp, UFC Heavyweight title contender.... by some. Then Cain Velasquez happened - all over his face. Aside from Brendan Schaub, all of Gonzaga's losses come against absolute killers. I think he got a raw deal being cut by the UFC and I truly believe that he'll make the most of his 2nd stint, and will eventually retire a UFC fighter. Gonzaga via submission.
Daniel Sarafian vs. CB Dollaway
Rose: Ok, here’s the skinny on this fight. Daniel earned a shot to compete in the finals for the Ultimate Fighter Brazil, but was injured and unable to compete at the finale. He has recovered and looks to get back into the mix in his home country of Brazil. His opponent is CB Dollaway, who has a scowl perma-frozen to his mug, and lost in the finale of his season of The Ultimate Fighter. Dollaway had lost two in a row, before eeking out a win over a lifeless and injured Jason Miller. In this clash, look for CB to be put away by Sarafian, and possibly given a pink slip by Joe Silva. Daniel Sarafian wins by Arm Triangle in the first frame.
Reno: Like money? Put some on Sarafian. Sarafian via something Sarafiantacular.
Vitor Belfort vs. Michael Bisping
Rose: Vitor got all Hulk-Smash and defiant during the press conference pose but it looked forced and unnatural for “The Phenom”. Bisping is a polarizing personality. You either love him, or hate him. I happen to dig him quite a bit. I think his standup will be sharp, and he will beat Vitor to the punch. Yes, I actually said he’ll beat VITOR to the punch. If things get on the mat, Michael will have to avoid submissions out of scrambles, but I think standing he frustrates and defeats Vitor by decision to earn a shot at Anderson Silva.
Reno: This is an interesting one. If Bisping wins, he gets a title shot against Anderson Silva. If Belfort wins, he gets a pat on the back and some padding on his record. If this fight goes to a decision I say advantage Bisping. He could eventually wear Belfort out in the later rounds and like Dan says, he can beat him to the punch. I just don't see it going the distance. I believe Belfort will rock Bisping, he'll rock him hard. And we all knwo that once Belfort rocks you, it's over. He feasts on your brains with his fists until you are unconscious, or the referee feels that you've had enough. Belfort via TKO.
2012 Final Records:
Dave Reno 97-59 (62%)
Dan Rose 48-43 (55%)
Guest Picks:Gary McKeating 27-13 (67%)
Erin Tierney 18-21 (46%)
2013 YTD:Dan Rose 5-5 (50%)
Dave Reno 0-0 (100%!)
Career: Reno 407- 238 (63%)
Rose 53-48 (53%)
Original Story:
http://www.hov-mma.com/2013/01/ufc-on...
