It seemed like just yesterday that we were preparing for the season opening Daytona 500. Now, the Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the third to last race of the Chase and the title battle is heating up.
Jimmie Johnson took over the points lead with the win in Martinsville last week. A pick you could have found in this very edition last week, I might add.
At this point, Brad Keselowski needs to have a great race or Johnson could run away with this. I’ve been right throughout the majority of the Chase for the race winner and guys not to start. As the season is winding down check out these picks to as fantasy leagues are closing down like the season.
The Cup title is well out of reach for Matt Kenseth, but I do feel his team has not given up on him in the Chase. Kenseth has won two races in the seven they’ve raced at and is a solid pick at Texas.
In 21 career Texas races, Kenseth has two wins, 11 top fives, and 14 top 10′s. He has the top driver rating at Texas in the series. He also has the best average running position and laps in the top 15.
I believe the No. 17 Ford will be running up front all day and have a shot at the win in the end.
Roush is very strong on these type of 1.5-mile tracks. Greg Biffle is going to be a tough man to beat if not the favorite. He had a great car in Charlotte a few weeks ago. Charlotte is a very similar track to Texas and Biffle set a new track record there. He ran well all night and was in the top 10 withhttp://racereviewonline.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpJi a shot at the end.
Biffle like his teammate Kenseth has two wins at Texas. He also has seven top fives and 10 top 10′s in 17 career Texas races. Biffle has been very fast at Texas as he has the series best average green flag speed, series high fastest laps run, and third most quality passes. Watch out for Biffle on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne has been hot lately and I believe he’s going to be strong at Texas. He ran well there in April and will be a factor on Sunday. He knows how urgent he needs to be with his teammate possibly running away with the title now and tracks like Texas are the best on the circuit for Kahne.
Don’t pay attention to his stats at Texas though. He does have a win, but ranks outside the top 10 in most of the major categories. I believe Kahne will be a threat for the win and wouldn’t be surprised if he does. He’s at least a lock for a solid top 10.
Johnson has won here in the past, but Texas isn’t one of his best tracks to land in victory lane. He is good at finishing solid there though as out of 18 career starts he’s only finished outside the top 10 five times. He has eight top fives and a driver rating over 100.
Now that Johnson has the points lead they’re one of the best to keep a hold of it. They don’t do anything stupid and just try and salvage top five finishes. I believe that’s what Johnson will do on Sunday and will solidly finish in the top five.
Juan Pablo Montoya:
Texas hasn’t been kind to Montoya during his Cup career. Out of 11 career races he has only finished in the top 10 twice. His average finish of 22.5 is among the worst in the series and I don’t expect much out of him on Sunday.
1.5-mile tracks like Texas, Atlanta, and Charlotte are rough for Logano. Texas and Atlanta rank among the worst on the circuit for the youngster. Out of eight career Texas races he only has cracked the top 10 once. He has an average finish of 25.1 and I don’t expect him to finish higher than that on Sunday.
Don’t let Texas being a hometrack for Bobby Labonte fool you into a sleeper start. He hasn’t fared well since he left Gibbs. Out of 23 career Texas starts he has only five top 10′s. That’s among the worst of any track for him. Labonte has an average finish of 23.8 and I can see him finishing around there this weekend.
Texas is a bad track for Ragan. Out of 11 career starts he’s only cracked the top 10 twice. His team isn’t really strong away from restrictor plate tracks and I would stay away from Ragan on Sunday. He has an average finish of 21 there, but don’t expect him to even get to that point this weekend.
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