Miami Heat Getting Healthy At Right Time?

Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson Remain Out

Meanwhile, Tyler Herro is getting closer to return, coach Eric Spoelstra told Chiang. Herro has been out since Febuary 24 with a foot injury, meaning tonight will be the 16th straight game he will miss.  Herro has been ramping up his workouts.

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The 23-year-old has appeared just 36 games this year, averaging 20.8 points along with 5.3 rebounds and a career-best 4.4 assists. The Heat are 19-17 with Herro in the lineup.

Duncan Robinson , producing one of the best seasons of his career, has been out since re-aggravating a back injury on March 18. The Athletic’s Shams Charania said on FanDuel’s  Run it Back show that Robinson should return sometime next week.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (left foot discomfort) and Caleb Martin (right foot discomfort) are also probable. Both players continue to be listed on the injury report due to management of the issues, though neither player has missed action.

Will The Heat Make A Playoff Run In 2023-24

So, will Miami make a huge playoff run in 2023-24 like they did a season ago? Some media members think so.

Here is an excerpt from ESPN’s Andre Snellings of ESPN said recent article:

“In the last four seasons, the Heat have consistently outperformed their regular season record with extended playoffs runs. They’ve made the Conference Finals in three of those four seasons and the NBA Finals twice; with both Finals runs coming in seasons, they were lower seeds without home-court advantage in the playoffs.

This success has been sparked by Butler, who goes from a solid All-Star caliber player playing about 53% of the available minutes to a First Team All-NBA caliber player that’s on the court about 78% of the time. Sustained playoffs success is often about having a superstar as the foundation to build around, and in the playoffs the Heat have absolutely had that in Butler.”

“And they’ve gotten consistent, excellent support from a variety of often unlooked for sources with teammates stepping up for multi-game stretches that get the team through crucial situations.”

Last year, the Heat finished seventh in the conference with a 44-38 record. However, the Heat lost to Atlanta in the seventh-eighth play-in game and then defeated Chicago in the final play-in game to earn the eighth seed.

Miami then started their historic run. Miami defeated top-seed Milwaukee in five games and No. 5 seed New York in six games. The Heat then became the second NBA team to make the second No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals by defeating No. 2 Boston after taking the first three games and holding off the Celtics in seven.

Meanwhile, other media members don’t expect the Heat to duplicate their run from a year ago.

Comparing Last Season and This Season

While Miami’s last two regular seasons have been very similar, we will have to wait and see how this season ultimately plays out. The Heat project to finish with 44-45 wins this season, as like last year, they have relied on their defense to win games.

Last year, Miami was 25th in the league in offensive rating at 113.0 and ninth in defensive efficiency at 113,3. The Heat were last in the NBA in scoring (109.9), 26th in field goal percentage, and 27th in 3-point percentage. The Heat were also 17th in 3-pointers made (12) and 10th in 3-point attempts (34.6).

Defensively, Miami was second in scoring defense (109.8), and the Heat were 22nd in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defensive percentage.

Meanwhile, Miami is 22nd in offensive rating (113.5) this year and ninth in defensive rating (113.0). The Heat  are 27th in scoring (109.3), 25th in shooting percentage and 13th in 3-point  percentage. The Heat are 21st in 3-pointers made (12.2) and 19th in 3-point attempts (33.3).

Defensively, Miami is fourth in scoring defense at 108.9. The Heat are 13th in defensive field goal  percentage and 12th in 3-point percentage.

Final Word On Miami’s Playoff Chances

Miami will not repeat last year’s run. Regardless of whether the Heat are able to get out of the play-in tournament or not. Obviously, the Heat will benefit not having to play the extra games this year.

While the raw numbers look very similar, and perhaps a little better this year, here is the thing. The Heat benefitted from a lot of things going their way last year despite not having Herro and Richardson themselves.

The Heat also were a better and more experienced squad last season, particularly in the backcourt, prticularly in the backcourt. They were also much a much healthier, thus more cohesive squad.

Plus, Miami has struggled against “good teams”, posting a 17-24 record this year. The Heat still have six teams with a winning record on the docket. The Heat are also not very good at home, which will hurt them in the postseason as strong teams are expected to protect their home court.

Miami is also not as adept as playing close games as they already played 29 games which has been determined by 10 or more, they were involved in just 25 of those contests a year ago. Furthermore, the East is much stronger than last season, particularly the Celtics, Knicks and Cleveland. Milwaukee is also dangerous with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and a healthy Khris Middleton.